2005 - The year the Society began its decline (without anyone noticing)!

by cedars 112 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  dropoffyourkeylee

  jws, I disagree. With the pentration of high speed access and the ubiquity of internet access and computer technology, more people, more numbers of people are online.

  I agree with Baltar on this one. The availability of information at home on the internet is major. I remember going into a Christian book store in the 80's and asking for Crisis of Conscience. The lady went into their back room and found a copy and said, "The Lord must have wanted you to have this, as it is the only one we have." I still remember the cold sweat I broke into as I started to read it when I got in the car. I sat there in the car for about an hour. The point is that it was hard to get the anti-JW information back then... the internet has changed everything. The Society's ability to propogandize has diminished with the ubiquity of internet access.

  On the flip side, there is also a potential for harm, as some extreme ideas that would never have reached the light of day have found victims thru the internet... think Heavens Gate in the 90's and that idiot from Norway that has been on the news recently
• 

  cedars

  Thanks for the comments everyone, but I would respectfully suggest that a few of you are missing the point. I only offer 2005 as the date when the Watch Tower Society notably began its withdrawal operationally by reducing its printing commitments. This was the first major symptom of the decline, although as Billy the Ex-Bethelite points out, the negative impact of poor growth in developed countries was being felt years prior, before 9/11. Slimboyfat makes a good point that the revised donation arrangement in the early 90s unwittingly contributed to accelerating the rot by making donations optional to appease charity regulations in some lands, but IMO the true effects weren't felt until the early to mid 00s.

  I don't think there's anything sensationalist or untoward about offering a specific date for the start of the decline, provided it is backed up by facts. As I explained in my OP, the Watch Tower Society is first-and-foremost a religiously-oriented publishing company - and if it were in trouble, this would first be evident in the form of a significant reduction in its printed output. This happened in 2005, but because we were only losing one magazine out of four, nobody thought anything of it. We will effectively lose another magazine later this year (half an Awake, plus half a Watchtower), which will halve the monthly magazine printing commitments in just 7 years. It's been done in two phases to make it less noticeable, but nevertheless - it's happened. Only now are we able to connect the dots, giving what happened in 2005 added significance.

  Also, many seem to still be linking the slow growth in the publisher numbers with a perceived growth of the Society. IMO, the two are separate. For example, just because the publisher numbers are growing in developed countries does not mean the Society is prospering, because it is having to service those lands (printing and facilities) with hardly any contributions in return, i.e. at a loss. Essentially, the growth figures can continue to hover between 2 and 3% for the next 10 years - and if that were to happen, the Society would shrink still further. The only way it could buck that trend would be if they could switch the balance somehow, and make it so that developed countries are driving the growth, and poorer countries slowing down. That's the only sustainable model for them (i.e. the way it was decades ago) but the advent of the information age has changed everything. Basically, unless the internet was somehow destroyed, there's no turning back.

  What you will have eventually is a weak Society that can no longer afford hardly ANY printing, and sends out all its material to congregation elders as PDFs. However, although this will temporarily sustain existing publisher numbers, the preaching work will grind to a virtual standstill - because nobody likes to go on the ministry with just a bible in hand, and nothing tangible to offer. People will do their token hour per month offering special self-printed leaflets devised by the Society, and nothing more. Sure, a few really zealous ones will put the hours in, but they will be in the minority. Then the growth numbers will really start to nosedive as the preaching work shrivels, and congregations will close down one after the other like a house of cards collapsing until the only congregations are found in major cities. Meanwhile, the Governing Body will have holed themselves up in a compound in upstate NY, and will try to live their lavish lifestyle for as long as possible before the money dries up completely. Finally, it will be left to a small group of fanatics spread around the globe to keep the flame of the religion burning, in much the same way as you can still find Bible Students believing in pyramidology today. However, the glory days will be far behind, and the religion will never be what it once was. I believe it's only a matter of how long all this will take. It has already started.

  Cedars
• 

  WTWizard

  That was the year I totally quit going to everything, no explanations. I shredded my washtowels and asleeps, stopped all field circus and boasting session attendance, and started getting rid of suits that were in poor condition. Also, I placed worldly clothing where it was more accessible than my suits, and started getting a few fun items. And my 8-ball--in October 2005.

  And next time it's a Ouija board--which I got on the day before the REJECT Jesus Party 2006. I sure rejected Jesus, without wasting the time pretending to accept him, that year.
• 

  Sic Semper Tyrannis

  I do agree with your contention about 2005 being a notable year. To limit the Awake! to one magazine a month, and to designate one issue of the WT as a "study" magazine available to only Witnesses is a huge deal. What it effectively did was give the public only two magazines a month to be pushed on them, while allowing the Society to cut down on printing not only for the deleted Awake!, but also in volume for the study magazine since it was not to be distributed. I was just thinking that the changed literature arrangement 15 years before that was a natural pre-cursor to this event. I read Ray Franz's comments on the voluntary donation scheme, and I have to say that I didn't agree with his point about how the Society now made double off the literature since the change. No matter how honest a person is, things change when they do not have to pay up front for things. It's like giving credit card users the option to pay when they want to rather than monthly. Many Witnesses were and are of limited means, and would naturally procrastinate with donating for the magazines they receive, thinking they would pay more later, which they probably wouldn't do when they got around to it. The Society took a huge hit from this arrangement, and once their considerable savings had started to dry up years later as a result, they started looking for more ways to become fluid. Thus they started selling off expensive properties in Brooklyn, cut down substantially on their printing costs, and now are even closing down branches and selling these valuable assets.

  The reduction of the public editions of the Awake! and WT to 16 pages each is no coincidence either. They both had a much higher circulation rate than the study magazine, and the Society is going to save themselves a ton of overhead in printing and material costs. It will also help them to downsize staff. The 2005 change was a matter of things finally catching up with the Society, and the GB decided to take harsh measures to combat it. The change this year is another outcropping of that decision. The next change will probably be as you noted, where the Society would send the congregations the literature as PDFs, and then force congregations to buy high volume and expensive printers to produce them locally. I would imagine the effect of that to the rank and file (if it is not already noticable) would be to take a bit of the shine off the Society. Witnesses view the Society itself as a first class and professionally organized enterprise. All of these changes only contribute to the sense that they are not what they once were, regardless of how many times they are reminded of how Jehovah is simplifying things.

  A very insighful article, and I look forward to reading your next one. Thanks for sharing.
• 

  Finkelstein

  However, the glory days will be far behind, and the religion will never be what it once was. I believe it's only a matter of how long all this will take. It has already started.

  Totally agree with that Cedars.

  Who would ever thought that the truth via the inter-net would be mostly responsible for bringing down

  " The Truth " of the Watchtower Corporation.

  Its pretty obvious by now that yes the reduction of the literature being published by the WTS.

  is a result of the involving costs related to printing against supposable incoming donations.
• 

  Finkelstein

  I also have suspicious instincts that tells me that the WTS. itself is going through a structural reformation

  leading toward a religion with many changed adhered to doctrines into the future.
• 

  binadub

  Perspective From an Oldie:

  I think the preceived decline may be relevant to when you woke up and came out. Here's how it seems from my memory:

  1966 - Release of the book Life Everlasting in Freedom of the Sons of God book pinpointed 1975 as ending 6000 years of human existence on Earth, which was expected to begin the final "thousand years" of a 7000-years "creative day."
  JWs jumped on this with almost unprecedented enthusiasm for the ministry and resulted in a surge of converts between 1966 through 1975 as well as significant profit for the WTS.

  BEGINNINGS OF DECLINE FROM 1975 ON:

  1975-1977 - Significant falling away following 1975.
  WT president Nathan Knorr died in summer of 1977 and was succeeded by VP Frederick Franz. Frederick Franz had a grudge against his nephew Raymond for his involvement in legalizing the WTS Governing Body in 1975, which had until then served prettry much as a figurative body. The move essentially wrested sole authority away from the WT president and VP.
  1977 is also the year a treatise from Swedish loyal JW, Carl Olof Jonsson, arrived at Brooklyn HQ that exposed the Society's flawed chronology for Jerusalem's fall to Babylon in 607BC, which of course discredited 1914 as the parousia of Christ, and therefore his appointment of the Bible Students as the "Faithful and Discreet Slave" who "witnessed" the [non]event.

  1977-1982
  CO Jonsson disfellowshipped.
  Witch hunts, trials and "cleansing" at WT Brooklyn headquarters.
  Fred Franz claiming that the decline following 1975 was due to Jehovah's discipline for "apostasy" in leadership at Brooklyn headquarters.

  1982
  Raymond Franz disfellowshipped.
  Disassociated JWs shunned the same as disfellowed.
  The word "apostate" comes to the fore of JW speak.
  (Probably in their hindsight, DFing Raymond Franz was the biggest 'mistake' the WTS ever made.)
  
  In the shakeup, other disillusioned Bethelites leave Brooklyn and join association with those disfellowshipped.
  A first gathering of former Jehovah's Witnesses at Peter Gregerson's home in Alabama.
  BRCI (Biblical Research & Commentary International) is formed.

  In those days, Jehovah's Witnesses enjoyed far more national public awareness due much to media coverage of their national and international 8-day conventions in New York and elsewhere. Ray Franz's expulsion made national news, and thus many former JWs for the first time had a focal to contact, which thereafter resulted in many coming into contact with BRCI.

  1983: CRISIS OF CONSCIENCE published. Commentary Press, Inc. formed.
  1985: Apocalypse Delayed published by M. James Penton.
  1987: Gentile Times Reconsidered by CO Jonsson published by Commentary Press exposing the WTS's flawed chronology and 1914 date.

  Annual BRCI gatherings became conferences held around the country from Georgia to California and Florida. This provided the premier support for people who left the Watchtower religion. Former Jehovah's Witnesses now had a cohesive fellowship that soon became an unprecedented international association.

  1990-1996
  Onset of JWs communicating with apostate JWs in "news group" communications via the fledgling WorldWideWeb.
  For the first time, JWs could converse with exJWs anonymously.
  Four prominent dissident JW Web Sites emerged on the Internet publicly exposing the WT as never before.
  Full expose's of Watchtowerdom could now be searched and seen by anyone who ventured into the Internet world (less than 2% of the U.S. at the time).

  An e-mail list group called Jesus' Witnesses was advertised and covertly joined by prominent exJWs and JWs alike. It was the premier Internet communication among exWitnesses at the time.

  1996-2000
  H2O (Hourglass 2 Outpost)--the forerunner of this Website--was launched, creating a public expose' of the Watchtower religion by dissident former JWs, sending shockwaves to the Watchtower religion as never before nor since. It was heavily monitored by WT HQ and even Brooklin heavies joined discussions once in a while to try to desuade the negative influence. The slightest slip of inside WT information could result in immediate action against Bethels internationally. The "secret Elder's Manual" was published on Internet.

  Most of the prominent names of well-known exJWs then have moved on, with very few old-timers left in the exJW forums now. But their pioneering efforts launched the tidal wave of dissent that is swelling for the imminent fall now. I would not be surprised if follows the way of the Worldwide Church of God (Armstrong) before the next decade. (They were considered somewhat in competition with the Watchtower in their hayday.)

  Bottom Line:
  I think the failed 1975 prediction with Knorr's death (77) was the beginning of the decline of the Watchtower. It does not even seem like the same religion it was before then. Most of the JW growth since '75 has been predominently due to baptizing their own children as they grew to age rather than canvassing for converts. The disfellowshipping of Ray Franz, COJ's expose' of their cruicial chronology, Penton's expose' of the WT history, BRCI, and H2O all played a heavy role in the beginnings of what has snowballed into their escalating decline today. I predict it will suffer another significant blow after 2014 when they pass 100 years after 1914. Most JWs cannot even tell you what the WT "good news" is today. Obviously not what it was before the 1914 generation ran out in 1996.

  ~Binadub
• 

  Hillary

  Somebody "bottom line" this please. When will this cult end?
• 

  Finkelstein

  Good chronological story of the WTS. and whats been happening to it since the late 60's.

  Nevertheless there's still a good amount power and money in the organization to drive men to

  immerse themselves with. If all the available power and control comes from god, then one can assume that men will be continually

  standing at the door waiting to be let in, even if they are forced to change a light bulb that shines upon themselves in the process.

  Unfortunate for the WTS. and perhaps a blessing for humanity, the inter-net is here exposing

  the corruption of fringe religious cults just like this one.
• 

  cedars

  binadub - thank you for that thought-provoking post. I've also received your email, and I'll reply shortly! I value your unique insight. You have seen things from both sides of the coin for many decades now. You're right that, as a relative youngster who has only recently escaped, I will be naturally itching to leap to the conclusion that the "end is nigh" for the Society. On the other hand, however, your vast experience will incline you towards the belief that the decline has been a much longer and more protracted process - particularly as you recall notable turning points over the past few decades that you have personally witnessed.

  My own experience as someone baptized in the early 90s is that, from the perspective of someone on the inside, there was no visible decay at all in the organization and its operations UNTIL the new millenium passed and drastic changes were introduced. These changes came as a shock, because suddenly we had to adapt from the idea of a seemingly inexhaustible supply of magazines and new releases. Previously, all we could see when we looked at the organization, albeit through tinted glasses, was "wonderous expansion taking place".

  The announcement in 2005 that the magazines were being reduced caught everyone off guard, because it went against the grain of what we were used to. For the first time we had a REDUCTION in spiritual food, rather than an increase. Similar thoughts went through our minds when the book studies were abolished, and merged with the midweek meeting. Nobody speaks against the Governing Body necessarily, but people make it known that it doesn't make sense - put it that way. Of course, you buy into the explanations given to you at the time, and get over it eventually. My point is that I can't remember a time before 2005 in the Society's history when the external pressure you mentioned (such as the power of the internet, and the publication of Crisis of Conscience by Ray) was actually felt WITHIN the organization by ordinary Witnesses. Believe me, it was truly shocking - even if we all developed our own ways of dealing with it.

  So yes, I agree that pressure has been increasing on the Society since the failed prediction of 1975, but my point is that it didn't actually have a tangible effect on the Society operationally until 2005 when the strategic withdrawals began. Although the causes had been building and building into an unstoppable force long before the magazines were reduced, the 2005 reduction was the first noteworthy sympton that all is not well. Only now that the magazines have been further reduced can we confidently call it a "pattern" rather than a "blip". And, as I point out in my article, the reasons why there is no turning back for this decline are there for all to see. Since writing the article, I've figured out that there was an unprecedented 16% drop in branch numbers last year. 16 percent! That's unheard of. And I see no reason to believe the picture will get any rosier when the next figures are published. I believe the Society's decline is actually quickening, not slowing or happening gradually. Now that we know for sure that the Society is mortally wounded, it will be exciting to observe the further retreats and downsizing over the next few months or years.

  Hillary - I'm sorry I can't provide you with a date for when the last Watchtower is printed, but I can't imagine it being too long now based on the current developments. If I were to provide you with a date, I would be no better than the Society with their crazy predictions! All I know is the facts give the over-riding impression that something is badly wrong with the Society, and it doesn't look like things will improve any time soon - unless they can figure out a way to switch off the internet, that is!

  Cedars