Posts by konceptual99

57

Reasons for Stagnation in Growth. AKA YearBook Numbers!

by ttdtt in

so why has the growth flatlined?

why is less time spent in the ministry?

why have aux pios droped by 1/3rd?.

konceptual99

- Aux Pioneers. I am sure the high number last year is simply a spike due to the campaigns.

Overall I don't think the flat line is particularly due to what the WTS has done. I think it's actually two fold.

1 - R&F getting tired. Less enthusiasm. Smaller number of people really care about the ministry

2 - The main reason.... the growth outside of the West has slowed. For years the figures have been skewed by regional growth that has hidden the malaise in the West. Now that growth is reducing then the rot becomes far clearer.

To be fair (2) is a hypothesis. I am just hoping I will get some time to process the data and prove it.

20

Statistics - Spreadsheets - Opinion

by berrygerry in

so, spent a fair bit of time on the stats.. the 2010-2015 numbers are available here: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0bwv5uvzb3-67axpzavk0m0nttfe&usp=sharing.

also there are spreadsheets of: ratios, peak-pubs, and the best is a combo of ratios, peak pubs & average pubs.. you can play with these by "select all" and "sort" according to your preference.. if you would like any other combination, i would try to create it and post it for you.. of interest:.

as has been noted, the biggest standout of 2015 is the increase of only 18k in peak pubs while having 260k baptized.

konceptual99

The peak for baptisms was 375,923 in 1997.

They brought in over 300,000 9/10 years in the 1990s.

The numbers will fluctuate, it's the ratios that I find most interesting. This really illustrates the effectiveness of the preaching work and what an utter waste of time it is. If there was some regional analysis done I think it would show up even more trends regarding growth and contraction in Africa/South America versus the old school Western world WTS enclaves.

20

Statistics - Spreadsheets - Opinion

by berrygerry in

so, spent a fair bit of time on the stats.. the 2010-2015 numbers are available here: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0bwv5uvzb3-67axpzavk0m0nttfe&usp=sharing.

also there are spreadsheets of: ratios, peak-pubs, and the best is a combo of ratios, peak pubs & average pubs.. you can play with these by "select all" and "sort" according to your preference.. if you would like any other combination, i would try to create it and post it for you.. of interest:.

as has been noted, the biggest standout of 2015 is the increase of only 18k in peak pubs while having 260k baptized.

konceptual99

erm... I mean "Britain" with the WT borders....

20

Statistics - Spreadsheets - Opinion

by berrygerry in

so, spent a fair bit of time on the stats.. the 2010-2015 numbers are available here: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0bwv5uvzb3-67axpzavk0m0nttfe&usp=sharing.

also there are spreadsheets of: ratios, peak-pubs, and the best is a combo of ratios, peak pubs & average pubs.. you can play with these by "select all" and "sort" according to your preference.. if you would like any other combination, i would try to create it and post it for you.. of interest:.

as has been noted, the biggest standout of 2015 is the increase of only 18k in peak pubs while having 260k baptized.

konceptual99

This is for the UK

20

Statistics - Spreadsheets - Opinion

by berrygerry in

so, spent a fair bit of time on the stats.. the 2010-2015 numbers are available here: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0bwv5uvzb3-67axpzavk0m0nttfe&usp=sharing.

also there are spreadsheets of: ratios, peak-pubs, and the best is a combo of ratios, peak pubs & average pubs.. you can play with these by "select all" and "sort" according to your preference.. if you would like any other combination, i would try to create it and post it for you.. of interest:.

as has been noted, the biggest standout of 2015 is the increase of only 18k in peak pubs while having 260k baptized.

konceptual99

Here are some more....

7

Brooklyn Should Get A Thank You From the WTS

by konceptual99 in

jw
friends

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20151217/opinion/151219924/jehovahs-witnesses-should-leave-brooklyn-a-big-thank-you-gift.

konceptual99

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20151217/OPINION/151219924/jehovahs-witnesses-should-leave-brooklyn-a-big-thank-you-gift

30

What are the economics of cart witnessing?

by slimboyfat in

on another thread shepherdless sketched out the past business model of jws and its demise.

until 1990 they were a straightforward publishing business with the tremendous advantage of free labour in production and free distribution agents.

since then they've been relying on donations for literature to keep the old model going.

konceptual99

I believe the congregation pays for the cart when ordered but I don't know the suggested donation. Can anyone confirm?

20

Statistics - Spreadsheets - Opinion

by berrygerry in

so, spent a fair bit of time on the stats.. the 2010-2015 numbers are available here: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0bwv5uvzb3-67axpzavk0m0nttfe&usp=sharing.

also there are spreadsheets of: ratios, peak-pubs, and the best is a combo of ratios, peak pubs & average pubs.. you can play with these by "select all" and "sort" according to your preference.. if you would like any other combination, i would try to create it and post it for you.. of interest:.

as has been noted, the biggest standout of 2015 is the increase of only 18k in peak pubs while having 260k baptized.

konceptual99

I think you need to look at the last 5 years in terms of comparisons. Last year featured special campaigns and the 2014 100 years of the kingdom birthday celebration. My feeling on the data I've looked at is that last year was a spike and the trend is more discernible from a longer period.

That said, I think the ratios and growth figures for this year show a number of interesting points as brought out in the OP.

30

JW Statistics for "Britain" 2015 over 2014

by freddo in

jw
friends

population listed.

peak pubs.

ave pubs.

konceptual99

I was in the middle of pulling the data and the link to the stats to 2014 came up - saved me a load of bother.

I am just doing some Britain branch munging...

Interestingly the late 90s saw some big drops, more than recent times.

However the efficiency of the work is getting worse and worse and worse. In 1988 it took 1.2 YEARS (constant 8 hour days) to get one person to baptism. It now takes 3.7 YEARS of constant 8 hour days for ONE person to become baptised in the UK. When you consider many of the baptisms are born-ins it's got to be the most fruitless work possible.

Using average publisher figures, even though they have increased numbers by almost 30,000 since 1998 they have gone from over double the publishers attending at the memorial to around 2/3. This constant bleating about the "potential" in the memorial attendees is just bluster.

Hours are on the rise overall, with a drop over last year being explained by the extra campaigns. The peak of 25.2m hours last year was all well and good however there was a peak of 24.4m in 1992 - a figure (ignoring last year), they have only just beaten this year with 24.8m. Like for like, it's been over 20 years since they beat their last peak of hours.

I will do the same for global figures as soon as I can.

30

JW Statistics for "Britain" 2015 over 2014

by freddo in

jw
friends

population listed.

peak pubs.

ave pubs.

konceptual99

Just to let you know I am working on 2010-2015 yearbook data