Posts by konceptual99

41

Numbers don't lie... and these numbers are beautiful!!

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

the numbers don't lie... definitely slowing down!!.

in the 40´s the average growth per year was 20%in the 50´s it was about 10%they had four decades of solid 5% per yearnow the average for the past 16 years has been 2%.

maybe in the future it will be 1% or 0 or even negative????.

konceptual99

I get Richard's point in as much as simply comparing two years in themselves does not prove anything. For example, saying that (hypothetically) in 1965 there were 1m witnesses and they grew by 100k in a year and in 2015 there were 8m witnesses and they grew by 265k does not prove very much - the second number is a smaller percentage increase but there is no real context to provide any indication of what the difference really means.

When you look at it over a period of years, however, the changing ratio starts to tell a story. If you add to that statistic further data, for example the number of hours spent to get a ratio for hours of preaching to gain 1 conversion, or a geographical breakdown that shows the increase is virtually static in developed nations then you can start to formulate some conclusions.

Cherry picking a couple of years for comparison does prove very little and I would agree with Richard that one it's own even a reducing ratio of year on year increase does not really prove anything of significance. Regardless, when you look at numerous metrics taken together then I agree with all the posters that say the percentages give you the real story. The evidence presented by even just a few related lines of analysis is damning and is 100% the reason why the WTS concentrates on the headline numbers, the long figures that present an impressive picture until you look at the trends.

41

Numbers don't lie... and these numbers are beautiful!!

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

the numbers don't lie... definitely slowing down!!.

in the 40´s the average growth per year was 20%in the 50´s it was about 10%they had four decades of solid 5% per yearnow the average for the past 16 years has been 2%.

maybe in the future it will be 1% or 0 or even negative????.

konceptual99

You are correct Richard if you look at the numerical increase. Sure, $1 on $15 is more of a percentage than $1 on $16. But the thing is that if you were negotiating your yearly raise you would not negotiate a numerical increase, you would negotiate a percentage increase.

If you negotiated a 7% increase each year then the actual amount received would increase. If received less then you would start to get a bit miffed as your percentage raise is decreasing.

The same with the WTS. They love to highlight the raw numbers. 8 million publishers, 19 billion hours, 20 million at the memorial, hundreds baptised each day, thousands of congregations.

The fact is however that percentages are important as they tell the real story on things like the efficiency of the preaching work, the conversion rates and so on. The percentages indicate trends that point to the health of the organisation and it's long term viability.

If you are earning $30,000 pa and get a $10,000 pay rise, that's great. It's far less impressive if you are earning $300,000.

The WTS is not an organisation of 1 million bringing in tens of thousands a year. They are an organisation of 8 million, spending almost 20 billion hours preaching yet in the 2014 service year had net increase of 18,000 people. The 2015 service year brought figures like an increase in average publishers of 26 people in the UK.

The WTS hides the reality with the big numbers but the percentages expose the malaise that is infecting the organisation and shows no sign of disappearing.

7

Hypothetical Memo to the G.B. From the Writing Committee

by The Searcher in

jw
friends

dear glorious ones, we feel certain that our statement in the february 2017 watchtower - "the governing body is neither inspired nor infallible.

therefore, it can err in doctrinal matters or in organizational direction" - will assuredly save each one of you from taking a bullet this year when the australian royal commission and the u.k. charities commission's findings are made public and inflict punitive measures on the organization for its historical failure to weed out pedophile and to protect children.

if the minions are challenged, they now have a ready-made conversation stopper and can show it to dissenters on their electronic devices.

konceptual99

Thanks Freddo. On your lead I thought I'd remind myself what the simplified edition of the 11/15 2013 WT said. It makes it very nice and simple...

At that time, the direction that you receive from Jehovah’s organization may seem strange or unusual. But all of us must be ready to obey any instructions we may receive, whether we agree with them or not, because obeying these instructions will save our lives.

To be fair the context of the paragraph is about "when the Assyrian attacks" and future persecution prior to the big A but the point remains - we are meant to obey without question and forgive any errors in instructions that may not be quite as life-saving as we might initially believe since the GB are perfectly entitled to make mistakes.

With life-saving directions.

That's if we are still alive to forgive the GB for cocking it up.

And if we are not worried that God is so impotent so as not be able to provide his own fecking representatives with the right instructions at the most critical point in time.

What a bunch of fecking morons.

7

Hypothetical Memo to the G.B. From the Writing Committee

by The Searcher in

jw
friends

dear glorious ones, we feel certain that our statement in the february 2017 watchtower - "the governing body is neither inspired nor infallible.

therefore, it can err in doctrinal matters or in organizational direction" - will assuredly save each one of you from taking a bullet this year when the australian royal commission and the u.k. charities commission's findings are made public and inflict punitive measures on the organization for its historical failure to weed out pedophile and to protect children.

if the minions are challenged, they now have a ready-made conversation stopper and can show it to dissenters on their electronic devices.

konceptual99

Of course the reality is that both the GB and the R&F will continue with the status quo and assume that everything the GB says is correct until they say it isn't. What the Feb 17 statement makes clear is that when a mistake is made, when a 180 degree turn is made then they don't claim infallibility or direct divine inspiration. They are simply doing their best to provide the right food at the proper time.

What the GB hopes is that this is enough for everyone, placating them with the assurance that even though they were wrong, they were wrong for the right reasons and with the best of intentions.

7

Hypothetical Memo to the G.B. From the Writing Committee

by The Searcher in

jw
friends

dear glorious ones, we feel certain that our statement in the february 2017 watchtower - "the governing body is neither inspired nor infallible.

therefore, it can err in doctrinal matters or in organizational direction" - will assuredly save each one of you from taking a bullet this year when the australian royal commission and the u.k. charities commission's findings are made public and inflict punitive measures on the organization for its historical failure to weed out pedophile and to protect children.

if the minions are challenged, they now have a ready-made conversation stopper and can show it to dissenters on their electronic devices.

konceptual99

Yet the bizarre thing is that they have also instructed the R&F to be ready obey any directions "whether these appear sound from a strategic or human standpoint or not" and may not "appear practical from a human standpoint". (WT 2013 11/15). This direction is described as "life-saving".

The same paragraph implores witnesses to put their trust in the GB above anything else.

Now they are making it clear their decisions could be wrong, could be mistaken. Can they really expect blind obedience in every case? I wonder how the R&F will square this circle?

.....

Sorry - I forgot. The conclusion that the two positions are logically mutually exclusive will simply be ignored.

3

YB17 Promotes Child Baptism

by konceptual99 in

aside from the statistics inthe new yb there are also a couple of cases of it promoting child baptism.. in the section about the young remembering their grand creator in georiga you will find this.... https://www.jw.org/en/publications/books/2017-yearbook/georgia/youth-remember-grand-creator/.

in support of parental training, elders try to involve young ones in congregation activities as early as possible.

nestori, who was baptized when he was 11 years old, states: “the elders gave me various small assignments from a very early age.

konceptual99

Aside from the statistics inthe new YB there are also a couple of cases of it promoting child baptism.

In the section about the young remembering their grand creator in Georiga you will find this...

https://www.jw.org/en/publications/books/2017-yearbook/georgia/youth-remember-grand-creator/

In support of parental training, elders try to involve young ones in congregation activities as early as possible. Nestori, who was baptized when he was 11 years old, states: “The elders gave me various small assignments from a very early age. This has helped me feel that I’m really part of the congregation.”

In the section in JW Broadcasting you will find this...

https://www.jw.org/en/publications/books/2017-yearbook/highlights/jw-broadcasting-strength-refreshment/

Kodi, from England, says: “Thanks for all the time and effort you put into making jw.org, JW Broadcasting, and the Caleb and Sophia videos. Thank you for making the Bible easier to understand. I was baptized when I was eight. When I’m a bit older, I’m going to volunteer to help build Kingdom Halls! And I would like to work at Bethel. I’m nine now, so I’ve not got long to go.”

41

Numbers don't lie... and these numbers are beautiful!!

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

the numbers don't lie... definitely slowing down!!.

in the 40´s the average growth per year was 20%in the 50´s it was about 10%they had four decades of solid 5% per yearnow the average for the past 16 years has been 2%.

maybe in the future it will be 1% or 0 or even negative????.

konceptual99

This figure could also explain the theocratic "CPR" being performed over the last couple of years in the form of shunning talks/videos and apostate warnings and general demonizing of anyone not loyal.

Which is seemingly now turning to pure desperation cf. the impending regional convention series "Don't Give Up"...

41

Numbers don't lie... and these numbers are beautiful!!

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

the numbers don't lie... definitely slowing down!!.

in the 40´s the average growth per year was 20%in the 50´s it was about 10%they had four decades of solid 5% per yearnow the average for the past 16 years has been 2%.

maybe in the future it will be 1% or 0 or even negative????.

konceptual99

And then you could ask, in what way has it cooled off? Or are we now applying "the greater number" to the number of Jehovah's witnesses, which is stagnant and a 1000+/1 minority in the world?

Most of the references to this verse in the past 30 years highlight the "increase in lawlessness". Where they talk about love cooling off it's related, as the context suggests, to the general population becoming more selfish and decreasing in their love for God.

The only place it gets close to relating it to Witnesses is in the Insight book under "Love":

One’s Love Can Cool Off. Jesus Christ, in telling his disciples of the things ahead, indicated that the love (a·gaʹpe) of many who professed belief in God would cool off. (Mt 24:3, 12) The apostle Paul said that, as a feature of the critical times to come, men would become “lovers of money.” (2Ti 3:1, 2) It is evident, therefore, that a person can lose sight of right principles and that the proper love he once had can fade away. This emphasizes the importance of constant exercise and development of love by meditation on God’s Word and by molding one’s life according to His principles.—Eph 4:15, 22-24.

The neat trick is that simply through osmosis this idea that this scripture refers to Witnesses gets spread. The phrase the "love of the greater number will cool off" is repeated in conversation and without context yet the context gives a reason for this love cooling off - the increase in lawlessness. When taken in this context it's hard to see a direct prophetic link to the malaise of the Witnesses yet the rank and file see it with no significant and direct discussion by the WTS - in fact the opposite is true.
It's cognitive dissonance. Plain and simple.

117

2017 Yearbook released

by bohm in

jw
friends

i saw this on reddit:.

https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

konceptual99

What would happen if the number of memorial partakers rose to more than 144,000??

Nothing major. It's already obvious that there has to have been more than 144,000 partaking over the history of the WTS let alone those first century Christians. The majority just follow the rhetoric.

I expect that we shall see WTS address rising numbers with yet more nonsense about the figure being unimportant, reminders it's only the GB that are the F&DS and for some strong articles about how unhappy Jehovah is if you partake without being 100% certain. They will probably make some statements about the depth of spirituality (i.e. stuff you do in the org) that a member of the remnant would likely have to try and guilt some into retracting their claim.

4

2016 year book

by pepperheart in

hi acording to the 2016 year book the borg sent 6,000 people from bethels around the world "home" i think they might be struggling a bit lol .

konceptual99

Can you imagine what uproar there would be if a corporation with a workforce of 26000 just made around a third of it's workforce redundant in a few months, including many with years of service?

Can you imagine the disgust of people when they heard that those sacked were left without homes or jobs and given just a small stipend to cover a few weeks?

Can you imagine the fury of the customers of the company at suddenly being expected to jump in and house, feed and employee these ex-employees?

Can you imagine any of those ex-employees then going back to appear in corporate videos thanking the company for sacking them saying how happy they now were?

The WTS has pulled off a master stroke of HR management here,