Posts by simon17

195

Theistic Evolution

by cofty in

thoughtful christians including scientists like francis collins and kenneth miller accept the evidence for evolution unconditionally.

the only thing that distinguishes their understanding of life from the views of dawkins is that they believe god planned and started the process intentionally.. just a word about the subtle but vital distinction between "theistic evolution" and "intelligent design".... over-simplifications alert - intelligent design is creationism in disguise.

it is a modern twist on the "paley's watch" argument.

simon17

Simon17: He used the illustration that in a lottery, the odds of winning are seemingly insurmountable, one in millions. Yet there is one winner, for whom those odds were against, but nevertheless the winner beat the odds.

My response was that yes, in infinity there is a chance that insurmountable odds may eventually occur--once.

But if the lottery winner won once, and then won a second time, beating the same kind of odds, is that possible? Mathematically, yes.
And if the same lottery winner won the lottery a third time, and then a fourth time, and then a fifth time, . . . .
I don't know about you, but I would start thinking the lottery was "designed" (i.e., fixed).
Possible? I suppose, but I wouldn't believe it. Would you? ;-)

* First off why, in infinity, can something highly unlikely only occur once? When you look at the winning of consecutive lotteries as a single compound event, you can look at THAT as your new event. So I disagree with your reply.

* Second you are looking at a closed system, like was described in a later post, and also a discrete probability curve. Even the probability of winning the lottery 5x in a row has a measurable (i.e. non-zero) probability. So theoretically, even this, is more likely than the common events that I described when choosing an entity from a continuous probability distribution with an uncountable number of outcomes.

* But anyway, I understand what you are saying. We can construct things that have seemingly ridiculously low odds (for example, maybe < 1/(total # of possible particle interactions in the history of the universe). But you are taking a great leap and then applying such things to a very unknown system like abiogenesis and/or early cellular evolution. Obviously there are events along the way in this development curve that are unlikely. Just how unlikely I do not think you or I (or anyone yet) is qualified to definitively answer! But certainly there were countless failed attempts in between the successes. Countless planets no doubt failed to develop life. Countless times interactions on earth failed to produce anything useful. Countless mutation fell by the way side because they were useless or problematic. So I disagree with your analogy to winning the lottery over and over and over again. Evolution is a myriad of small steps, building on one another, separated by millions upon millions of failures. After all, if your lottery were played for 4 billion years, everyone would be a winner hundreds of times over :)

By mathematical theory, that is remotely possible, but in reality I don't think so. (And math is not considered a science by a lot of scientists--it's theory.) Not me saying it--numerous scientists with credentials agree.

I have no idea what this means. Mathematical theory is not a science? Maybe in the sense that it transcends science. It is the certainty behind which science relies upon.

13

If disfellowshipping was abolished...

by iamwhoiam in

...what would it accomplish?.

a few thoughts running through my head.... 1. the kingdom hall would be open to people who were originally df'd for apostasy, and therefore opening the door for debate without consequence (e.g.

people spreading thier ideas freely within the cong without fear of being df'd/banned).

simon17

Disfellowshipping is only part of the fear and guilt mechanisms they have. I do not think there would be a massive rush out the door. You'd see many 5% declines for a year or two. Most members would be relieved. They could easily be reprogrammed to, instead of shun those who have gotten reproved, simply refuse to discuss any spiritual matters with them. I don't think it would be a huge threat.

I'm sorry to say, but there's no one card that will bring this house of cards down.

126

Who On This Site Would You Like To Meet?

by minimus in

jw
friends

there are a lot of interesting people that frequent this site.. sometimes, we get an idea of what the posters are really like in "real life".

and i'm sure i could be easily surprised by some that you think might be strong personalities because of their board presence, and in reality, they might be shy in a face to face setting.. i would enjoy meeting simon.

simon used to be terribly annoyed by my posting and now i think he's accepted with tolerance my being here.. farkel seems like a grouchy cantankerous fellow but i think he'd be very interesting company!.

simon17

everyone's saying Simon... I feel so loved...

195

Theistic Evolution

by cofty in

thoughtful christians including scientists like francis collins and kenneth miller accept the evidence for evolution unconditionally.

the only thing that distinguishes their understanding of life from the views of dawkins is that they believe god planned and started the process intentionally.. just a word about the subtle but vital distinction between "theistic evolution" and "intelligent design".... over-simplifications alert - intelligent design is creationism in disguise.

it is a modern twist on the "paley's watch" argument.

simon17

New Chapter is correct. Anything with a non-zero probability is, of course, not impossible. In fact, its even more than that. Non-degenerate continuous probability distributions, as a rule, have a 'zero probability' everywhere in that the probability of any specific value occurring is 'almost surely' zero. This can be readily seen because areas under probability curves are found by integration, and finding the probability of a specific value would be an intergral with the same lower and upper limit, which equals zero. However, even though any specific event is almost sure not to occur, these events DO occur all the time.

So, for example, if you chose a random number from a normal distribution, you would, with certainty, choose something that had a probability of being chosen of 0.

I have no idea what we are even discussing at the moment... I'm still waiting for that matty creature to respond to my post that he said he "WOULD LOVE TO SEE" about evidences for evolution.... then nothing.

74

Best news in a long time - manned mission to Mars planned

by tootired2care in

i was reading this news article and it brings out that nasa is planning a manned mission to mars.

nasa plans to work with other countries on this mission, and not just go it alone.

it turns out that the obama administration has set a goal for nasa to have this done by the 2030s.

simon17

I think space exploration is a necessity for future survival of the human race. The hope that there is another planet somewhere in the universe that could sustain life is exciting.

Don't worry too much. The human race went from living in caves to walking on the moon in about 20,000 years. They went from believing the earth was flat to nanotechnology and genetic experimentation in about 500 years.

I don't believe escaping the solar system in the next 2-3 billion years is going to pose much of a problem (if it comes to that).

74

Best news in a long time - manned mission to Mars planned

by tootired2care in

i was reading this news article and it brings out that nasa is planning a manned mission to mars.

nasa plans to work with other countries on this mission, and not just go it alone.

it turns out that the obama administration has set a goal for nasa to have this done by the 2030s.

simon17

I think its a good idea but I'm not terribly optimistic until its getting a lot closer.

For reference... look at the dozens and dozens of missions to Mars planned in the past, all of which have fallen thourgh.

If our fragile economy takes one little misstep this project gets shelved.

45

Best British Bands

by outsmartthesystem in

jw
friends

on a lighter note......what do you think?

here's my top ten.

1) beatles.

simon17

According to acclaimedmusic.net which actually ranks these by a formula that takes into account all 'best of' lists of critics, year end lists, sales, airplay, and a bunch of other variables here is the top 50:

Actually I think it looks pretty good but I think Black Sabbath is too low personally.

1	The Beatles
	2	The Rolling Stones
	3	David Bowie
	4	Radiohead
	5	Led Zeppelin
	6	The Who
	7	The Clash
	8	Pink Floyd
	9	Elvis Costello
	10	The Smiths
	11	Van Morrison
	12	The Kinks
	13	John Lennon
	14	Sex Pistols
	15	Roxy Music
	16	Joy Division
	17	Blur
	18	New Order
	19	Oasis
	20	PJ Harvey
	21	The Cure
	22	The Police
	23	Massive Attack
	24	The Jam
	25	Portishead
	26	Black Sabbath
	27	Brian Eno
	28	Primal Scream
	29	Fleetwood Mac
	30	Nick Drake
	31	Elton John
	32	Pulp
	33	Queen
	34	Kate Bush
	35	Pet Shop Boys
	36	T. Rex
	37	The Specials
	38	The Jesus and Mary Chain
	39	The Stone Roses
	40	Peter Gabriel
	41	Deep Purple
	42	Cream
	43	The Chemical Brothers
	44	Rod Stewart
	45	Depeche Mode
	46	Coldplay
	47	King Crimson
	48	Pretenders
	49	The Verve
	50	Belle and Sebastian

14

email from a HLC member

by loosie in

just for shits and giggles (not because i want to be friends necessarily) i looked up an elder i used to know on facebook... what do you know he was there.

i asked him if he was still a jw?

he said yes.... i said funny i thought you'd be out because of all the changes in the blood doctrine.

simon17

I agree with your points, but it kind of sounds like you looked him up just to pick a fight, honestly (especially from his persepective).

63

Email from my grandmother yesterday.

by elder-schmelder in

here is an email that my grandmother sent me yesterday.. .

shawn, it's very difficult & sad to come to this decision, but because of your attitude towards the truth & us personally (thinking that we are stupid) we're going to treat you as a disfellowshipped person from now on.

actually, you're worse than them because usually they know they have not kept their oath to jehovah & don't speak abusively of the organization and don't turn apostate.

simon17

Yes I would also try to become independent of her business.

However, I don't think your job is in jeopardy because, with this email and others she would probably send you if you were to lose your job, you'd have a slam dunk case of religious discrimination and could sue the company.

76

Do You Like or Dislike Algebra? Why and Why not?

by Scott77 in

july 28, 2012is algebra necessary?by andrew hacker .

a typical american school day finds some six million high school students and two million college freshmen struggling with algebra.

in both high school and college, all too many students are expected to fail.

simon17

Why are college freshman even taking algebra? For students attending a four-year college, that is remedial work. They should have two years of algebra, one of geometry, and one of trigonometery under their belts before graduating high school. Yes, that means four years of college-prep math. It is shameful that colleges and college students must routinely waste time (and tuition money) doing what should have been done in high school.

It is shameful, but I can tell you this from first hand knowledge: Kids coming into college, by and large, know absolutely no math whatsoever. It is really sad. Many people on multiple choice placement tests on algebra and trig score worse than what would be expected by random guessing. Many are unable even to look at two fractions and say which is bigger (say 2/3 and 1/2). Why?

1) Prolific calculator use before understanding of basic arithmatic and algebraic concepts set in. (Forget graphing-- most students wouldn't know where to start graphing anything by hand other than perhaps a line given them in y=mx+b form)

2) No Child Left Behind means teachers teach to the test, have immense pressure to pass people, and do this with increasingly low standards

3) The style of teaching math is completely oriented towards "tricks" to solving random problems and not understanding of WHY the solution makes sense and HOW it is derived from and connected to previous material

4) General coddling. The bad part is students come into college THINKING they are ready and in many cases BELIEVING it, in spite of having forgetten everything in algebra and trig classes they got B's and A's in. Ex: Everyone thinks they know about square roots. Root(4) = 2. Easy. They don't want to learn it in college because they know it. Yet in one class, this problem was on the placement exam: Simplify Root(4x^2 - 4) / (2x - 2) and not a single person in the class was able. They all violated the properties of a square root and took it term by term in the numerator and got something like 1! They don't know anything. And they don't know that they don't know anything.

Terribly sad. Country's going DOWN in producing technical expertise, I can promise you that.

FYI this is not every single student. There is a small minority, say 1-2% who were dedicated or took good AP programs or were in magnate schools who are quite prepared and exceptional.