Hi Barb - nice to see you on this thread :-) the voice of reason maybe
My thoughts are on page 4 and 5 of this thread - since then I am persuaded that we can't know the answer - perhaps if a high level JW defector surfaces we might get a better idea. Or if a qualified researcher takes it on.
Throwing large numbers around - no matter the pseudo-stats involved in their preparation - is not helpful. As several posters have suggested, the variables and unknowns make large extrapolations subject to such wide error boundaries as to make them meaningless. (And in Marvin's case he didn't suggest error margins or any other confidence metric)
The Beliaev study has itself been the subject of peer criticism - if I can find more details I will share them. If anybody has access to the full text of the study I would be happy to have some data scientists in my company take a look.
It appears that transfusion is negatively linked with anemia outcomes in any case...
I think the point of this thread was to debate the use of sensational claims - not neccessarily to 'prove' what the right answer is.