besty

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Posts by besty

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  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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  besty

  @SBF

  1 - Why you adopt the 3% position when you admit to not being qualified.

  2 - Whats happening with the blue bit of the graph relating to ocean heat content?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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• 

  besty

  The next ten years should be interested.

  Are you struggling to comment on the known facts of the previous 40 years?

  The academic consensus can be wrong.

  Examples in the modern era of a 97% consensus being wrong after decades of study and research in a multitude of disciplines please.

  Are sea levels rising faster than they thought, or are you just making up that as an example?

  Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that sea level rise is accelerating faster than expected. Rahmstorf, Foster, and Cazenave (2012) compares the historical sea level tide gauge data from Church and White (2011) and recent satellite altimetry sea level data (orange and red in Figure 4, respectively) to the 2001 and 2007 IPCC report model projection s (blue and green in Figure 4, respectively). The observational data in Figure 4 are aligned so that extending the satellite best-fit line (red) back to 1990 will match the IPCC projection s at that date, where the IPCC TAR model runs begin.

  http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

  The public is losing faith in climate change. In that sense it is losing ground.

  argumentum ad populam? 60% of US Republicans are young earth creationists - whats your point?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  @SBF

  besty the graph only goes to 2010, I can't help you, look at It.

  OK - try this:

  

  The point is clear - 5 periods of claimed cooling = upward trend. Ever tried going down an up escalator, because that's what you are seeing here.

  On scientific credentials, do yours outstrip Judith Curry who you disparage?

  No. Thats why the only logical position is to accept the 97% consensus. (Same reason I accept 587 for the destruction of Jerusalem without being a neo-Babylonian history professor)

  Since I am not a scientist and I can't evaluate the evidence independently I think it is reasonable for me to judge the IPCC on its past predictions, don't you think that's reasonable?

  Yes that's reasonable. Except you haven't read every single IPCC report and formed your own conclusions - you are cutting and pasting from a non-scientific source. And where said economist says the IPCC were 'wrong', he doesn't say if they were wrong by being too conservative...its' difficult for the IPCC to get agreement from every government by being wildly pessimistic on outcomes. Some examples of the IPCC getting it wrong:

  fossil fuel emissions worse than they thought, Artic ice melting faster than they thought, sea level rising faster than they thought

  If that makes them wrong then so be it. Mother Nature doesn't care about IPCC predictions - most of the document summarizes our current understanding based on research to date. I'd be happy to consider a more comprehensive summary of every single prediction made by the IPCC and compare those predictions to outcomes.

  Which begs the question, since their predictions over the past 20 years have proved wrong, why should we be confident about their further predictions

  It begs the question if the premise is correct. You haven't convinced me that the IPCC are 'wrong'.

  The global warming narrative that is rapidly losing ground.

  Factually incorrect. And you need to explain a few things to me before you can even assert that.

  1 - Why you adopt the 3% position when you admit to not being qualified.

  2 - Whats happening with the blue bit of the graph relating to ocean heat content?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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• 

  besty

  thats his personal opinion metatron - you'll have noted he hasn't published a paper for peer review - just tweeted that he isn't flying anymore. Good luck to him.

  You don't seem to be the kind of guy that would struggle differentiating between opinions and facts, so i'm not sure why you feel this adds anything to a thread on the IPCC report, which is evidence-based.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  glander - you invoke "random ridicule" and yet I can't see any instance of ridicule directed at you on this thread.

  You end your comment saying 'you guys need your mommy and teddy bear'

  Hypocritical?

  The point is the IPCC report doesn't fit your worldview and so you will use any means you can think of to discredit the message.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  I am not qualified to do the science, ..

  therefore I will use the Daily Mail to inform me?

  therefore I will accept a 97% expert consensus?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  2010, I read it wrong the first time.

  Still wrong. Again. November 2012.

  Thats the trouble with spending your time gazing at Daily Mail graphics - you lose the ability to read.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  Of course its easy to see why the IPCC are toast based on a handy Daily Mail graphic to help.

  Where does the Daily Mail explain this to you?

  

  Church et al 2011 Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

  Do you see any issue with cherry-picking surface temperature as the metric for global warming?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  @SBF

  And do you know why the graph you posted above stops at 2010? The data are available beyond that year. Could it be because if the graph extended to 2013 then its ideological purpose would be contradicted?

  First of all you asked why stop at 2008, and now you ask why stop at 2010 - which is it?

  In any event both are wrong. Perhaps you should examine the facts - the figures are from January 1970 to November 2012.

  Figure 4: Average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomalies from January 1970 through November 2012 (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, and Nov '02 - Nov '12.

  The objective of the graph is clear - deniers cherrypick a metric - surface temperature, and then cherrypick a date range that suits them and cry 'cooling'. All the while ignoring all other metrics and the overall multi-decadal trend.

  No - I'm not embarassed - the facts are clear.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  besty

  @SBF

  Interesting that you find an economist authoritative on anything - when did they ever get any predictions right?

  Hardly the point though - every decade since the 1960's has been hotter than the last, and the recent pause in surface temperature rise (one measure of global warming - you know the globe includes the oceans and the atmosphere?) is thought to be caused by deep opean absorption of heat.

  Nobody I read claims all the answers on matters of science, of course it is far easier to sit on the sidelines crying "wrong, wrong" every time science progresses. Thats how it works.

  You cannot deny the laws of physics. There is more energy going into the system than there is coming out.