slimboyfat

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Posts by slimboyfat

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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  wifi bandit very interesting to see visually that Africa and South America account for most of the growth.

  India also sticks out but there are relatively few JWs there.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  That's an amazing reduction in special pioneers. I wonder if it will contribute to future decline.

  Psychologically it's difficult to motivate to do something for free when you had been paid previously. Theoretically former missionaries and special pioneers should be super loyal. But for at least some it must feel more like the loss of a job, and they may simply choose to move on.

  It may take a few years, but I reckon a large proportion of former bethelites, missionaries and special pioneers will "drift away" from JWs as they adjust to fending for themselves.
• 
  15

  Beth-Shan - Digital Reconstruction - IMAGES & DRAWINGS WANTED

  by Bloody Hotdogs! in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  (just posted this over on exjw reddit as well).

  as part of my masters in architecture degree (a treat to myself after leaving jws about 4 years ago), i'm attempting to digitally reconstruct some of watchtower's significant early buildings.

  my goal is to produce accurate architectural drawings and images based on solid evidence.

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  slimboyfat

  This sounds fascinating.

  I wonder if you're aware of this book that contains details of the properties of the earliest period of Bible Student history under Russell.

  https://www.amazon.com/Watchtower-Allegheny-Historical-James-Holmes/dp/0615548520/

  Doesn't relate directly to Beth Shan but it shows a similar interest in the physical environment of the early adherents.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  The average for Japan in those years are not the figures you give.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  slimboyfat

  The reduction in branch staff is a huge statistic - a 24% drop in one year! This must be unprecedented.

  Plus the reduction in spending on travelling overseers, missionaries and special pioneers, a massive 10% drop. I wonder how they managed that, considering it must be difficult to reduce the number of COs, and there can't be an awful lot of missionaries and special pioneers. Did they get rid of special pioneers? (After promising to look after retired COs in this way?) Or did they reduce the amount of money they give individual COs, special pioneers and missionaries.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  berryjerry those figures don't look right.

  For example Japan decreased from 214,523 (2015) to 213,818 (2016) in terms of average publishers and from 215,216 (2015) to 214,173 (2016) in terms of peak publishers.

  You seem to be comparing peak and average rather than different years in this instance. Some others looks wrong too at a quick glance.

  I think the real figures are a bit worse than in your table.
• 
  57

  Will Donald Trump Be Impeached Before His Term Ends?

  by Brokeback Watchtower in

  1. social
  2. current

  i'm thinking his willful failure to be briefed by the cia about russian election tampering and not understanding diplomatic protocall.

  making off handed statements without proper research about the mater.

  he's an outsider when it comes to running the government that will make big mistakes at every turn because he seems clueless when it comes to running a government.. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-moore-predicts-trump-impeach-resign_us_58261464e4b0c4b63b0c6dee.

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  slimboyfat

  Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

  Personally I'd feel safer for the fate of humanity if he was impeached before his term even begins!
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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• 

  slimboyfat

  No doubt there is growth in the Congo, but it's not possible to tell if the figure for last year was accurate, or the figure for this year, or neither. So in terms of global growth it's probably best to ignore it at the moment because inclusion very likely creates a false impression of the global trend.

  Another thing about the Congo: it is a country which has had significant independent "Watchtower" movements in the past. I don't know if these are still active, but it is possible that the definition of a JW adherent is slightly more fluid in this region than we are accustomed to elsewhere, such that congregations may be moved inside or outside the organisational umbrella from one year to the next. If so it is possible that a large increase in any given year represents reconnection of the official Watchtower organisation with pre-existing independent congregations.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  If the publisher figure for the Democratic Repblic of Congo was the result of migration across borders it should be easy to spot where around 38,000 publishers have been lost from a neighbouring country. I can't see any indication of that.

  It seems to me they have got issues with data collection for the Congo and therefore absolute figures and fluctuations are not reliable for this country. I would argue that removing the figure from the total might therefore give a more accurate picture of global growth. If so, worldwide growth this year is slightly down on last year.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  bohm I have made the argument elsewhere that congregation number is the best measure of growth or decline that there is for JWs (or religions generally) for a number of reasons:

  1. Unlike almost every other figure, it cannot easily be faked. Congregation names, locations, and meeting times are publicly listed. If they claimed more congregations than actually exist they would get caught.

  2. Definitions of everything change over time: publisher (15 minutes), pioneer (how many hours?), Bible Study (door step study, family study?), making diachronic analysis sometimes difficult. Among all the data that are collected there is a good argument to be made that the definition of a "congregation" is among the more stable.

  3. Another way of looking at the issue is that growth or decline involves slightly more than simply number of adherents. There is the component of commitment and enthusiasm to consider. And the number of congregations captures this slightly better than the pure publisher number. Because it takes commitment to form and maintain a congregation and to fulfill all the duties associated with a congregation. If the number of congregations begins to decline before the publisher number declines (as is often the case in various countries) this tells us something important and is indicative of "decline" in a broader sense, I would suggest.

  4. The countries that are showing real decline show that decline most severely in the number of congregations. Take Japan for example that has declined by around 3 or 4% in terms of publishers, but by over 20% in terms of number of congregations. That's a huge indication of decline that is somewhat masked by the publisher figure.

  5. Plus, and this is one of the best reasons for focussing on congregation number in my view, it makes JW figures easily comparable with other religions. It is easy to get bogged down comparing JWs with other religions such as Mormons or Baptists or whatever, because they have wildly different concepts of: adherents, members, publishers and so on. But the concept of a "congregation" is common to all and remarkably similar. Mormon claims to have more members than JWs in the UK, for example, are belied by the fact that they have fewer than half the number of congregations. Plus over time, no organisation that is truly growing will decrease in terms of number of congregations.

  Quite simply congregation number is the best measure of growth across time and in comparison with other religious groups.