slimboyfat

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Posts by slimboyfat

• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
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• 

  slimboyfat

  I'm getting brighter and brighter. ;-)
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  The second one, as explained above.
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  I would like to see them try to tithe.

  My first post on the thread said 10 or 20 years until real crisis, that's not exactly imminent.

  I don't say they have a deficit just because Lett says so, but because the circumstances indicate it, and their actions confirm it.

  Still waiting for some sort of explanation for how Watchtower will make up for their previous income from publishing. So far he suggestions have been that they will charge for access to the website or else they will tithe the membership. I doubt they would try either, or it would work if they did.

  My best guess is the'll cut back to nearly nothing (staff of 200 or something ridiculous) and hope for the best. Get brothers to produce the website from home for free.

  But cutbacks on such a scale may cause a downward spiral of congregations and membership. That's why I don't think a disorderly collapse is out of the question.
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Aha so it is. My mistake. Time will tell how robust it is.
• 
  22

  Approximately how many JW have left permanently?

  by longgone in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i did try a search before posting this question and found nothing current.

  pew research -2016 says approximately two thirds of those born into the religion in the united states alone, no longer consider themselves as members.

  (sorry, still don't know how to link, but it's an easy google search.).

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• 

  slimboyfat

  If you count children of JWs who never got baptised then probably there are more former JWs than JWs. But it would be difficult to arrive at an estimate for that number.

  Maybe use the New Zealand census data and extrapolate to worldwide membership.
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Are you sure it isn't sewn Athanasius? (My copy says first printing 2013, made in the United States of America, on the reverse title page) If it's not sewn then it's made to look as if it is. The songbook is glued.

  Click on image to see close up of binding on this page.

  http://candhbookbinding.com/Extra-Ribbon-Marker-Insert-for-Grey-Standard-Size-New-World-Translation-Bible-p411.html

  Maybe the rNWT isn't up to the standard of some Bible publishers (although it looks pretty good to me) but against the standard of the cheap paperbacks JWs have been printing in recent decades it's a step up and must have been relatively expensive to produce.

  Contrast it with the cheap paperback NWT you describe coming across on this thread.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/181035/cost-cutting-new-world-translation-now-soft-cover-paperback-mormon-style

  And they describe taking care to make sure they last here.

  https://www.jw.org/en/publications/books/2015-yearbook/highlights/bible-made-to-last/
  
• 
  22

  Approximately how many JW have left permanently?

  by longgone in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i did try a search before posting this question and found nothing current.

  pew research -2016 says approximately two thirds of those born into the religion in the united states alone, no longer consider themselves as members.

  (sorry, still don't know how to link, but it's an easy google search.).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  I don't think there can be more former JWs than active JWs because, that would need to mean the annual increase, plus 1% of active JWs, would be less than half the number baptised each year. But that is not the case for most years.

  If JWs start to decline overall however, it could change rapidly, the number of former JWs could quickly outnumber active JWs.
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Incognito thanks for some contrary views. Let me counter them. ;-)

  I mean the new Bible must be a large expense because they are good quality Bibles and the material to produce them must be relatively expensive. At a time when they've stopped publishing most if not all hardbacks due to cost, it really stands out as a quality publication. (They even experimented with cheap paperback Bibles for a short period) Plus simply the fact that it's a new edition means that every JW needs one or two new copies, plus inactive ones, plus anyone else who wants a new one. I think it must have been pretty expensive. And now rolling it out to other languages is another huge expense it seems difficult to avoid.

  You say they made one or two billion dollars from Brooklyn property, but that's not an inexhaustible sum. Especially when you consider they've spend just under quarter of a billion dollars on missionaries, travelling overseers and special pioneers a year. On top of that you've got printing, bethel staff, property maintenance, legal fees, web technology and whatever. Their overall running expenses could easily be more than a billion dollars a year. So if they made one or two billion from property, after you subtract the cost of the new HQ, it doesn't stretch that far if there's a major deficit.

  Stephen Lett said there is an ongoing deficit. He also let slip that income from sale of property was being used to meet running costs. They can only do that for so long before they run out. I don't think they're in the luxurious position of being able to put money aside to live from the investment. The scale and rapidity of cuts in the last two years indicate an organisation that is fighting for survival.

  You didn't mention the cost of looking after retired COs, subsidising poor countries on the basis of declining membership in rich countries, abuse claim payouts, declining donations from disaffected membership.
• 
  22

  Approximately how many JW have left permanently?

  by longgone in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i did try a search before posting this question and found nothing current.

  pew research -2016 says approximately two thirds of those born into the religion in the united states alone, no longer consider themselves as members.

  (sorry, still don't know how to link, but it's an easy google search.).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  In principle it's possible to work out a good rough estimate for this.

  Choose a starting date such as 1945.

  Add the starting number and all baptisms since that date together, minus 1% each year for deaths, and finally subtract the current number of active JWs from that total.

  Has anyone done it?

  Paul Grundy has done most of the work for this calculation but not the final calculation itself as far as I know.

  https://jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php
  

  My guess is the calculation would show there are nearly as many former JWs as there are active JWs.

  And I suspecf that former JWs will outnumber active JWs very soon.
• 
  192

  Question for SBF

  by Fisherman in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

  can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

  - this thread is your if you want it..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Yes, I agree.

  And it's pretty weird that WT publications still push "bethel service" for young people when there seems to be little prospect of a "bethel career" at this point. They've toned it down a bit, but not enough to meet the new reality.

  The term "publisher" does seem anachronistic now, as does "tract society" as another poster pointed out.

  They may have enough money to keep them going for a while. But on the other hand they may find that expenses are not as easy to cut as they hoped for a few reasons:

  1. The move to Warwick may have proved more expensive than they budgeted. (On the assumption that most big projects overspend and Watchtower is not immune.) So while they made lots of money from the sale of Brooklyn property, the move might not be the stupendous financial boost they hoped for, or others imagined.

  2. Beyond regular costs of moving to Warwick, there were stories about unexpected problems with waste and cleanup. How much might that cost?

  3. The same can be said about the expense of moving from Mill Hill in London out to Chelmsford. In principle these downsizing moves should bring in a lot of money. But JWs don't have a great track record in managing such projects efficiently and they may not realise the kinds of windfalls they may have expected.

  4. If I understand the Circuit Overseer guidebook correctly, they promise to retire COs at a certain age and provide an allowance for them as special pioneers for the rest of their lives. With increasing lifespans and probably thousands of former Circuit Overseers to support, that's got to be a tremendous financial burden. At some point they may need to choose been going bust from making such payments, or cutting the allowances and thereby alienating and infuriating a huge group of key supporters.

  5. Plus the mounting costs from meeting abuse claims. I don't think they were budgeting for this ten years ago or more. It's a cost that could easily escalate and which had not figured in whatever their long term plans have been for the organisation.

  6. The new arrangement of removing financial autonomy from the congregations may backfire spectacularly on the organisation. It's quite easy to see a scenario in which contributions fall because JWs don't see them being spent locally and see no point in contributing when the funds are never allowed to accumulate. Resentment is also bound to build up just as soon as local KHs request funds for repairs and Watchtower refuses.

  7. Disaffection among ordinary JWs seems to be at its highest ever. And people who are doubtful about the GB and all the scandals in the news and not going to contribute much money, if at all.

  8. Numbers of JWs are falling in rich countries and still growing in the poorest countries. This presents a huge financial burden and dilemma for Watchtower. They claim that theirs is the most important message in the world and they spread the message without regard for financial gain. But at the same time they don't want to go bust. So what do they do? The closure of Gilead was an indication of where they are going.

  9. They just produced a new Bible and songbook which must have cost a fortune to produce for the worldwide membership. There are rumours that the new edition was due to be released in German this summer, but was delayed. Was it delayed because the work isn't finished, or are they having difficulty financing the publication? You're probably talking about producing something like half a million new Bibles to start with, expensive quality items, which may cost millions of dollars. Then there's Spanish and all the rest to follow. Maybe they've bitten off more than they can chew with the revised NWT. It's a huge expense that has arrived when they can apparently least afford it.

  10. They are furiously cutting bethel staff at the moment, down from 26,000 to 19,000 in just one year. But any downsizing of personnel is fraught with difficulty. On top of alienating thousands of people, they may make mistakes in choosing which people to let go. They may lose key skills and efficiencies they had not appreciated. In reality the cutbacks may not result in the kinds of savings that they look like producing on paper.