About 1.8 Millions disfellowshipped since 1981 and about 1.3 Million still are!

by StephaneLaliberte 12 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • darkspilver

    slimboyfat - yes, there's ALOT of unknowns, I was just trying to replicated how StephaneLaliberte worked it out.

    you calculated the third Reinstated at the very end while I calculated it every year.

    StephaneLaliberte - Ah right, I see you're trying to do a completely different calculation to me, but that's cool - I was just doing disfellowshippings as per the post title

    Because there are too many unknowns, I believe it is safest to go with the simplist calculation to work out total disfellowshippings.

    • We know the number of publishers each year
    • We have a percentage for annual disfellowshipping from the above number (though that would be varible year-to-year)
    • Reinstatements - as I understand it would take at least 12 months before someone is reinstated, and they would therefore be included in the following year/s publisher number - therefore you shouldn't make allowance for them being reinstated (ie being reinstated with in the same service year)

    Anyway, cool question to ask is:

    How many disfellowshipped people could there be ALIVE today? 1,482,272

    Although that figure does not make allowance for people being disfellowshipped more than once, so in reality the figure would be slightly less, BUT it also assumes there were NO disfellowshipped people prior to 1981 who are still alive - so the two sides probably balance out?

    I worked the figure out using a crude death rate of 8.1 deaths per 1,000 per year (and that's compounded!!!)

    So, I think it works out as follows:

  • StephaneLaliberte

    darkspilver: I like your logic... I'm adding this thread to my notes!

  • darkspilver

    darkspilver: I like your logic... I'm adding this thread to my notes!

    cool, you too.

    I think the broadbrush 'take-home' from this is two-fold:

    Firstly, as was highlighted in the OP - is that there is a significant number of disfellowshipped ones still alive, particularly compared to current active publishers, around 1-in-6.

    I suspect gb2.0 are worried about this, and is perhaps why they're pushing limiting association with these ones - BUT also consider....

    Secondly, compare the ratio of baptisms with apparent disfellowshippings

    • In 1993 there where 296,004 baptisms - and 40,000 disfellowshipped (1-in-7.4)
    • In 2016 there where 264,535 baptisms - and 72,547 disfellowshipped (1-in-3.6)

    These numbers also don't bode well for WT either...

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