About 1.8 Millions disfellowshipped since 1981 and about 1.3 Million still are!

by StephaneLaliberte 12 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  StephaneLaliberte

  This means that for every 6 Publishers, there is a disfellowshipped person. This statistic doesn't take into account all of the kids that become/removed as publishers and receive a similar treatment from their family.

  Conclusion: Jehovah's witnesses do break up families. This is not a question, its a measurable fact.

  Assumptions:
  

  1. Every year, 1% of all baptized are disfellowshipped.
     
  2. 1 of every 3 disfellowshipped persons is re-instated.
     
  3. 1.3 normal death rate applied to baptized and disfellowshipped ones.

  I also used baptism statistics found on JWFacts.
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  dubstepped

  Ah, but it's the victim of disfellowshipping that they blame for breaking up the family. You're 100% correct, but it's all a matter of where blame is placed, and we all know that narcissists...errr...Jehovah's Witnesses, are never wrong.
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  darkspilver

  How are you working that out?

  I have a 'base-line' to use for 1993 using the following
  

  Watchtower 1 April 1994, page 16, paragraph 8

  Each year about 40,000 individuals are disfellowshipped from Jehovah’s organization.
  

  I make a total of 1,708,635 total disfellowshipped.

  Using your one third reinstated (569,544), but ignoring being disfellowshipped twice etc

  I end up with 1,139,091 remaining disfellowshipped.

  And, of course, due to dying, the actual number of disfellowshipped ones actually alive currently would be less
  

  
  
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  StephaneLaliberte

  Darkspliver: you calculated the third Reinstated at the very end while I calculated it every year. Reality is that many people get disfellowshipped more than once before actually leaving.

  Hence, someone disfellowshipped in 1981 may actually be disfellowshipped again in 1985 and remain so.
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  slimboyfat

  The figures sound about right. But there are a few complications.

  What about people who "disassociated" are they included in the 1% or the 40,000 figures? Probably not. Yet not all of these people left voluntarily, since it can include "apostates", joining military, attending another church, and more recently accepting blood.

  Also until the mid 1990s unbaptised publishers could be removed and treated as if disfellowshipped.

  Plus we don't know if the DFing rate has changed over the decades, either up or down, which is entirely possible.

  Having said that the ball park figure of around 1 million or so DFed seems proportionate and fits with the known facts.
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  StephaneLaliberte

  
  
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  StephaneLaliberte

  Slimboyfat: You are right, this is just to give a general idea. So, remaining somewhat conservative, 1 million disfellowshipped alive today sounds reasonable.

  Any Jehovah's Witness disputing this is welcome to send a letter to the society and ask for the definitive numbers as they obviously have access to them.

  If you account the fadders and the kids who stopped publishing without being baptized... you'll get a darker version of this horrible vision of hate and division.

  Is this really what the love of Christ is supposed to produce?
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  schnell

  Any Jehovah's Witness disputing this is welcome to send a letter to the society and ask for the definitive numbers as they obviously have access to them.
  

  What? Those numbers aren't tied up in a bungled SharePoint database?
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  Simon

  Reality is that many people get disfellowshipped more than once before actually leaving.

  Hence, someone disfellowshipped in 1981 may actually be disfellowshipped again in 1985 and remain so.

  I agree. While a congregation may have 10 disfellowshippings over a number of years, it may actually just be 3 or 4 people involved. People who are kicked out for reasons other than apostacy are more likely to return than those who decided it's not the truth.

  The number of people is always going to be less than the number of disfellowshippings, the question is by how much.
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  steve2

  Very interesting calculations. I do not disagree with them, but think of the variables that make calculations difficult.
  

  What about the "revolving-door" syndrome?
  

  We all know of individuals (usually in our local congregation) who were disfellowshipped on multiple occasions.

  When I was active in the early 1980s, I knew one sister who, although just in her 30s, had been disfellowshipped three times. I would imagine she has clocked up a few more times since then. Or finally grownup and left for good.

  Perhaps she is an outlier, but the frequency of knowing or hearing of individuals who have been disfellowshipped at least twice suggests it is not rare.