87 jw dead due to Corona in Netherlands

by Gorbatchov 15 Replies latest jw friends

  • Gorbatchov

    From a trustfull source:

    87 jw's dead due to Corona in the Netherlands.

    Tested victems.


  • menrov

    Quite a lot in my opinion.

  • road to nowhere
    road to nowhere

    Too bad. You can be in the wrong place at the wrong time. all it takes is a decision to evacuate to the hall. My congregation was the only one in the city to keep meeting. All it would have taken was one carrier showing up. The special cleaning was slipshod. Every group can fall into a trap, not just JWs.

  • sir82

    Some back of the envelope calculations....

    Average publishers there in 2019 was about 29,000.

    As a rough estimate, over a large population, you'd expect about 1% mortality, so 290 per year, or about 25 per month.

    COVID-19 has been there roughly 2 months.

    Over 2 months, in a normal year, you'd expect about 50 JWs in the country to die from old age, accidents, other disease, etc. And 87 have died from COVID-19 alone.

    Some of the JWs who died from COVID-19 in those 2 months may have died in that same time frame from other causes, but certainly not all of them.

    So the conclusion seems to be that COVID-19 has likely at least doubled JW mortality over the past 2 months.

  • Anony Mous
    Anony Mous

    That's only for the Netherlands though, they have a COVID-19 morbidity of 13%, more than twice that of the US. On the other hand, a lot of JW are also in the groups where the virus is most deadly, the poor and elderly that have the rely on public health care options.

    In that last sense, the WTBTS is responsible for at least some of the deaths amongst JW, by keeping their populations perpetually poor and dependent on government care they are at much higher risks for all sorts of death and disease.

  • slimboyfat

    It depends how broadly you define “JW” but 0.034% of the population of the Netherlands has died of coronavirus, according to worldinfo.

    0.034% of JW publishers would be 100 people

    or 0.034% of Memorial attendance would be 167 people

    I suspect that elders may count people as JWs people who have not been completely regular in the ministry, so their count may fall between these two definitions. On the other hand a few JW deaths may have escaped the attention of elders, but this does not seem as though it would be a frequent occurrence given the level of surveillance among JWs,

    This might tend to indicate that JWs are slightly under represented in coronavirus deaths in Netherlands, but this appearance could be quickly reversed depending on how up to date the official 87 deaths figure is. If it is even just a week or two old then it could easily indicate that JWs have in fact suffered a higher rate of death than the general population.

  • Anders Andersen
    Anders Andersen

    In The Netherland 5775 people died of Covid-19 so far.*

    On a population of 17.280.000.

    That's 0.033%.

    Converted to 29.000 dubs that would be only 10 victims.

    JW report 87 deaths. That's 9 times the expected number, or about 5 times the expected number of victims based on memorial attendance.

    Of course, in cases like these the sample size may not be enough to conclude the numbers are significant.

    (Either my brain doesn't work properly because of that bottle of wine I finished or I have to disagree with SBF by a factor of 10.)

    Edit to add: regardless of religious conviction or affiliation, every victim is one too many, and mourned for by friends and family.

    *) This is confirmed cases only. Statistically speaking, based on the number of people dying per day, covid19 related deaths seem to be about twice that number.

  • road to nowhere
    road to nowhere

    Are their tests honest? Or like the US where they count deaths with c19 but not necessarily from c19

  • Finkelstein

    Dam that Zoom

  • Anders Andersen
    Anders Andersen
    Are their tests honest? Or like the US where they count deaths with c19 but not necessarily from c19

    I'm not sure about that. If a heart patient who tested positive for Covid19 and has mild symptoms dies from a heart attack, he may or may not be counted. Can't find specifics on that.

    However, the reported number of covid19 deaths in The Netherlands is about half of what it would be with 100% testing.

    How do we know? Because statistics show a lot more people died in the past few months than could be expected based on statistics. Since there is no other (obvious) explanation for this other than covid19, we can conclude these extra deaths are covid19 related. Either because these people died from covid19, or from the effects covid19 has on society and the health care system.

    This also aligns with what family doctors and doctors in nursing homes report: there are quite a few people who have all symptoms of covid19, choose to not go to hospital, and die before/without being tested. These deaths aren't counted in the official number of covid19 deaths.

    The same is probably true for most other countries.

    What do ststistics says about the number of deaths in the USA in the past weeks? Does it appear number of covid19 deaths are over- or undereported?

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