steve2: In Britain, growth of publishers is slowing down, if not stagnating
- Britain has seen 13 consecutive years of increase in average publishers reporting.
- Over the last 13 years Britain has seen the ratio of publishers-to-population go from 1-in-456 to 1-in-471.
"lies, damned lies, and statistics"
steve2: Putting snide quotes aside about "lies, damned lies and statistics" would darkspilver care to comment?
What is stagnation?: "A lack of growth, or development." / "A period during which the economy grows slowly, doesn't grow at all, or actually contracts after adjusting for inflation."
I believe the two statistics I provided above, although seemingly contradicatory, are actually an almost perfect example of stagnation within the religious context. (that is, in contrast to being a 'pure decrease')
While there is growth, it is not keeping up with the marketplace (ie the population) growing, it is not 'developing.' - there is a 'lack of growth'.
Thus while the JWs are still active, with a consistant year-on-year increase over a 13-year period (ie: growth), once the increase in the population is taken into account (ie inflation of market place, the pub-to-pop ratio) then there is actually a decrease - ie: stagnation.
This stagnation is compounded by - and is happening despite - the additional fact that, over the same 13 years, there has been a significant 'per-publisher' 25% increase in ministry time being reported. Thus there should be more increase than there is taking place - ie: stagnation.
I added the quote because people can be quick to pick up on individual statistics, without seeing the context (ie the statistical data as a whole).
steve2: Follow peak publishers year by year
This is a side issue, but, no, please don't follow 'peak publishers'.
Actually, the WT do not count publishers. There is no 'head-count'.
What they do count is how many S-4 Report Forms (time-slips) are submitted each month.
- If a publisher forgets to Report last month, and therefore submits two Reports (for last month and this month) they get double-counted as TWO publishers for this month.
- If a publisher forgets to Report the last two month, and therefore submits three Reports (for last month, the month month before, and this month) they get triple-counted as THREE publishers for this month.
The most number of Reports a publisher would normally submit at once is six - done to negate becoming 'inactive' (ie no Reports from the last six months)
Thus the 'peak publishers' number includes a lot of double and triple-counting.
See Question from Readers: https://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/2011609
I believe it is therefore a statistical fallacy to use 'peak publishers' - it is much better to use 'average publishers'.
BTW I was JOKING - the WT DOES count publishers, of course they do, they just don't normally print it......
Each month each congregation submits TWO 'publisher' totals
the total number of Reports Submitted (ie this is the number that gets printed/used above); and
the total number of 'Active Publishers' (ie the total number of actual publishers in the congregation (with no double counting) who have submitted at least one Report within the last six months). This is generally taken as being the 'publisher-size' of the congregation.