The Real Reason why the WT predicted Armageddon in 1975

by OrphanCrow 53 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • slimboyfat

    Average publishers increased from 127,000 in 1945 to 570,000 in 1955. (443,000 or 349%)

    Compared with an increase from 1,034,000 in 1965 to 2,062,000 in 1975 (1,028,000 or 101%)

    So yes a larger absolute increase between 1965 and 1975, but a much higher percentage increase between 1945 and 1955.

    1945 to 1955 - 349% increase

    1955 to 1965 - 81% increase

    1965 to 1975 - 101% increase

    So the early postwar period was the best for growth, even the decade leading up to 1975 did not match it.

  • steve2

    So the early postwar period was the best for growth, even the decade leading up to 1975 did not match it.

    By percentages, a definite "Yes", but by absolute numbers, "No" because 1965-1975 (11 years BTW) clearly outstripped the earlier decade's numerical growth [a million-plus new publishers joined the ranks between 1965 and 1975 whereas "only" 570,000 joined in the post WW2 decade].

    This is why sociologists sometimes talk about 'relative rate of increase or decrease' when it comes to population growth to avoid overly focused on early-stage large increases and later stage smaller ones - which distorts the picture of growth.

    As I noted, in earlier stages of growth, percentages are comparatively readily large as in the example I provided (when 1 person joins a group of 1, it represents a 100% increase). However, unless we are looking at exponential growth - where numerical growth and percentages continue to be large, subsequent percentage growth is usually more moderate.

  • sir82

    I suspect much of the postwar growth was really due to a disruption in reporting. I.e., I suspect there were more than 127,000 JWs in 1945, but they were not counted because there was no structure for those in Germany, Eastern Europe, even the USSR, to report to Brooklyn Bethel.

    It probably took a few years, due to post-war chaos, for everyone to be tracked down and contacted by Brooklyn.

  • never a jw
    never a jw


    You are playing watchtower tricks by using extreme examples. Overall, percentages are more meaningful than absolute numbers. Slim has a good point.

    I can play the same trick, but better. Actually, in this case is not even a trick: Killing 10 people in one day in a town of 100 people is far more shocking than killing 10 people in Mexico City (population over 20 million). It's 10 % versus .00005 %. Percentages here, as in most cases, are more relevant because they provide context; absolute numbers don't..

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