Internal Watchtower Statistics Re: Disfellowshipping and Shunning

by NotFormer 30 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  NotFormer

  Does the WT have a person/department/section tasked with compiling data and analysing it statistically. Or have they started doing something like that now that they are hiring external consultancies?

  I ask the question because I'm wondering if such studies and statistical analysis would show any link between the harshness of the disfellowshipping policy as it is applied and the dropout rate of people within the organisation who have just had enough.

  In previous threads it has been pointed out that the old approach isn't effective any more. There are more exes than current members now and there is support for those who flee. Unlike Logan's Run, Sanctuary does exist outside the WT city (or "Ark", if you prefer). So, the tighter they squeeze in trying to crack down on dissent, the more people they squeeze out. The speculation has been that they have been slightly NERFing the disfellowshipping practices because this is beginning to become apparent to the management.

  So is this correlation showing up in whatever statistics they keep?
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  slimboyfat

  Probably. They have published snippets of DFing data in the WT in the past, which at least suggests that they did record it at one time.
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  vienne

  Other than speculation, I've seen no evidence that the WT hires outside consultants.
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  NotFormer

  Nice shilling for the Borg, Vienne. I only mentioned that as part of some of the current speculation about the WTs direction. I even used the word "speculation" in the body of my post. We can't know what they're doing in secret, so we can only speculate.

  Now, can we get back to actually discussing the points I raised?

  slimboyfat, given your posts demonstrating that attrition is happening across the board in Christian denominations, do you think that the WT could filter out that background noise from their statistics, and figure out what policies of their own might contribute to the decline which is obviously concerning them enough for them to be changing rules?
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  vienne

  What you wrote was: "have they started doing something like that now that they are hiring external consultancies?"

  This is NOT presented as speculation but as fact. Either you have proof, or you chose to present speculation as fact. Words have meaning. Either you meant what you wrote or you do not know how to write.
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  NotFormer

  I wrote it as fact, because I believe it to be fact, based on the educated guesses, i.e. speculation, of many here. IMO, if you like, it's a fact, just as in your unbacked-by-facts opinion, it isn't. You say yourself, you've seen no evidence. That doesn't mean that the outside consultations aren't happening. Absence of proof isn't proof of absence.

  The questions raised in the first post still stand.
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  nicolaou

  NotFormer: I wrote it as fact, because I believe it to be fact, based on the educated guesses, i.e. speculation, of many here

  Nah, that doesn't work. If all you have (by your own admission) are educated guesses and speculation then be honest enough to say so. Claiming such as a fact because you "believe it" is misleading and dishonest.

  just as in your unbacked-by-facts opinion, it isn't

  Vienne didn't claim that your assertion wasn't factual just that it wasn't proven.

  You're all over the place mate.
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  vienne

  Apparently you have the vaguest idea of logic. Do you know what a premise is? Apparently not in any functional way. A premise is the impelling part of an argument. It is the underpinning of any claim you make. It presupposes that it is 'fact.' A false premise is one that has no basis in fact. Your statement is a false premise, and everything you build on it is fakery.

  You wish it was true. You want it to be true. But it is not. If you cannot support your premise, then all that follows (your argument) fails.

  I'm educating a simpleton. Alas.
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  slimboyfat

  I don’t see evidence or any particular reason for thinking Watchtower have hired “consultants”. What they do have are lots of lawyers and they do listen to their lawyers. It is possible that lawyers have given advice about the impact of shunning practices and it is possible that they’ve taken this on board.

  A good source on the historical impact of legal challenges on Watchtower decision making and orientation is the following.

  Côté, P., & Richardson, J. T. (2001). Disciplined litigation, vigilant litigation, and deformation: Dramatic organization change in Jehovah's Witnesses. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 40(1), 11-25.

  This is available free online if you search for it.

  Senior sociologist Rodney Stark wrote a widely cited article on factors promoting the growth of religious groups focussing on JWs.

  Stark, R., & Iannaccone, L. R. (1997). Why the Jehovah's Witnesses grow so rapidly: A theoretical application. Journal of contemporary Religion, 12(2), 133-157.

  Also available free online.

  An excellent new book discusses the impact of technological change on the way Jehovah’s Witnesses organise their congregational and preaching activities.

  Rota, A. (2023). Collective intentionality and the study of religion: social ontology and empirical research (p. 280). Bloomsbury Academic.

  Again, the pdf of this book is available free online if you search for it.

  An older article that compared the sectarian character of JWs with the ‘denominationalizing’ trajectory of Seventh-day Adventists is the following.

  Lawson, R. (1995). Sect-state relations: Accounting for the differing trajectories of Seventh-day Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses. Sociology of Religion, 56(4), 351-377.

  This article is interesting because 30 years later it’s worth considering whether JWs are beginning to alter their trajectory.

  Another article compared external versus internal factors affecting growth.

  Sturgis, P. W. (2008). Institutional versus Contextual Explanations for the Growth of the Jehovah's Witnesses in the United States, 1945-2002. Review of religious research, 290-300.

  This article is not readily available but I can send it by email if you are interested.

  
  
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  Slidin Fast

  There are more exes than current members now

  Is this a substantiated fact or another speculation?