Stats of conventions in Mexico

by ILoveTTATT2 15 Replies latest jw friends

  • ILoveTTATT2

    I just went to a convention in Mazatlan, Mexico.

    I had wanted to do this for a very long time, it left me shaken a bit (because I had a confrontation of sorts with one JW who recognized me), but I got some stats that give some insight into the Borg. It really is crumbling, even in the places where they have arguably had the best, wildest success in the world: Mexico.

    Just so you can see how much they have success in Mexico compared to the US or anywhere else:

    Top three countries in 2014 were:

    US: 1.2M max pubs
    Mexico: 829k max pubs
    Brazil: 794k max pubs

    But look at the ratios, way more important measure of success in a country:

    US: 1 JW per 259 people
    Mexico: 1JW per 149 people
    Brazil: 1 JW per 256 people

    So, ratio-wise, the JW's in Mexico do 70% better than the US or Brazil. In a few years, Mexico will be the #1 JW country in the world.

    And yet, even there:

    There were 2900 people in attendance. 28 people baptized. If all were JW, this is a ratio of ~1%. Assuming that 80% of people attending are publishers or baptized JW's, this means that, at best, this is a 1.2% increase in publishers.

    This is anemic growth! GREAT NEWS!

    What was sad was the demographics of the people getting baptized.

    Out of the 28 baptized, 17 were women, 11 men.

    of the men:

    3 looked under 18
    7 looked from 18-65
    1 looked 65+

    of the women:
    8 looked under 18
    8 looked 18-65
    1 looked 65+

    The man that was obviously 65+ had a very hard time getting baptized, he said he almost choked after the first dipping, but they had to dip him again because his hands were out. I just thought... stupid, fundamentalist idiots...

    I feel so sad for the 11 young people who have potentially just ruined their lives.

  • DesirousOfChange

    Thanks so much for sharing that info!

    Yes, Mexico is supposed to be the place of great increase. 1% does not qualify as "great". I would say that it is interesting the breakdown of the baptismal candidates. In the US it seems like 80% are under 18 when getting baptized. Your numbers appear to be more like only 40% are very young.


  • Gayle
    2014 Yearbook for Mexico, shows 27,701 baptized for their 12,833 congregations (2.15 persons each for the year). If each congregation has 1 person baptized at the Regional Convention and at their two Special Day (Circuit) Assemblies an average of 1.15 more total; not that impressive. 63 Avg. pubs. per cong.
  • Crazyguy
    As the internet apostates gain a foot hold in this language, the Mexican 's will wake up and probably be more vocal at getting loved ones out. They are a tighter nit family dynamic then Americans. This will cause more discussions and more family fights and more people waking up. The growth in Brazil has also stopped .
  • drawcad_1
    Can we all remember when Japan was the poster child for growth? Now, they are just as flat as all of the other countries. The Watchtower plays this smoke and mirrors with the true believers. Most of the ones that are brain washed will still tell you just how much growth there is in these other areas and not realize that the stagnation they see in their own hall is representative of what is going on around the world. 'Jehovahs is weeding out the congregations'. Or maybe people are waking up
  • ILoveTTATT2

    I will go to the second convention tomorrow. Then I plan on going to all of the circuit conventions (there's just one right? Not two?)... to see the growth or lack of in one city for one year. That should yield some interesting stats.

  • blondie

    There is a point at which the ratio tends to stay about the same between 250/300 per capita. But then the real stat is how many stay either in body or mind. If it weren't for the children of jws becoming jws, at least in the US and similar countries; in Europe people in general are losing religion in their lives. The WTS has a difficult ime countries that aren't nominally Christian.

  • ILoveTTATT2
    Convention #2 data:

    Attendance: 2750
    Baptized: 24
    Percentage assuming 100% JW: 0.87%
    Percentage assuming 80% JW: 1.09%
    Women: 16
    Men: 8
    Under 18 women: 9
    Women from 18-65: 5
    Women 65+: 2
    Men under 18: 3
    Men from 18-65: 4
    Men 65+: 1
    I would consider "boys" all three of the men under 18.
    I would consider "girls" 5/9 of the women under 18

    1 of every three baptized were young boys or young girls. Very sad!
  • never a jw
    never a jw

    One problem with your conclusion is that it misses the fact that there is more than one convention per circuit, per year, where people get baptized. You are not taking into account the people baptized during the same year, in the same circuit, but in a different convention. However, this error may be offset by the fact that not all attendees are publishers and that some missing in the convention have faded or disfellowshipped.

    Interestingly, your figures reflect the statistics of the Pew Research of 2014, in the U.S., that revealed that the ratio of men to women in JW land is almost 1:2 or 1/2

  • ILoveTTATT2

    These are the stats so far for Mazatlan, Sinaloa, for the regional conventions 2015 (first, second, and third convention, respectively):

    Attendance 2900 2750 2800
    Baptized 28 24 23
    If 100% 0.97% 0.87% 0.82%
    If 80% 1.21% 1.09% 1.03%
    Women 17 16 15
    Men 11 8 8
    Women / Men 1.55 2.00 1.88
    Women < 18 8 9 7
    Women 18-65 8 5 4
    Women 65+ 1 2 4
    Men < 18 3 3 5
    Men 18-65 7 4 3
    Men 65+ 1 1 0
    Women / Men (< 18) 2.67 3.00 1.40
    Women / Men (18-65) 1.14 1.25 1.33
    Women / Men (65+) 1.00 2.00 4.00
    Total <18 / Total 39% 50% 52%
    Total 18-65 / Total 54% 38% 30%
    Total 65+ / Total 7% 13% 17%

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