by Amazing 37 Replies latest jw friends

• ##### Amazing

Amac: The number of "70" is an AVERAGE ... meaning that many are less and many are much more. The number of "70" comes from groups that study and track the issue of pedophilia. However, the number of "70" is the most CONSERVATIVE I have read to date, meaning it is the lowest number advanced by any study or any group. Conservative is a term used in mathematical studies to reduce the chance of error to its lowest possible number. If you re-read my posts above you will see the terms "average" and "conservative" used repeatedly. When I initially started this study, I was inclined to use the number 300 based on what an attorney uses in court from his expert witnesses. When I sat with this attorney he said that most people have no idea of how bad the problem is, and when I suggested 70 victims average, he corrected me to say over 300 minimum. I don't know ... I honestly don't.

But, that said, I used the lowest number of 70 to at least try and get a handle on the scope of the problem. The results in about 370,000 JW victims in the USA. Is the number half of that, or a quarter of that? Given the JW molesters I have know, the number of 70 victims is LOW. What ever the case, the JW religion is a Pedophile Paradise.

• ##### JanH

Amazing,

These account for a very smal number of pedophiles, perhaps 5% to 10%.

Eh, of "pedophiles", perhaps,. but there is simply no evidence that this is true about everyone who victimizes children sexually.

Obviously, the more victims a person has, the higher the chance of getting caught and preosecuted. The numbers from law enforcement are seriously skewed by their very nature. All social scientists knows not to use their figures this way (ok, on second thoughts, not all)

You know the term "garbage in, garbage out" When reliable data is not available, you cannot just make some numbers based on the bad guesswork that is available.

- Jan

• ##### larc

While I appreciate numbers and statistics, the whole subject makes me tired and sad. Whether it is 10 or 100 per pervert, it is a world wide tragedy, and it must be corrected.

• ##### JanH

Amazing,

When I sat with this attorney he said that most people have no idea of how bad the problem is, and when I suggested 70 victims average, he corrected me to say over 300 minimum. I don't know ... I honestly don't.

You'd end up with more victims than there actually are JWs then, I guess...

Social science is a craft, folks. It must be learned and studied, and the pitfalls are legio. Even people who spent a lifetime doing it professionally tend to do serious mistakes. Don't damage the cause by doing hack jobs that get picked apart if ludicruous fugires hit the press.

- Jan

• ##### amac

Amazing - Thank you for explaining where you got the number from. I still find that number of 70 hard to swallow. For starters, the fact that some of your information came from an attorney proves that the numbers are skewed. ;>)

I think I agree with Jan on his latest post about available information.

I wouldn't mind looking into these groups that have tracked these numbers. I'll have to do this when I have some time, any starters on where to find this information?

• ##### larc

Now we do have a criterion problem here. What does constitute abuse? I have a wife and two daughters. I am quite sure that at some point in time they all have been touched inappropriately, and some jerk coped a feel on their ass or their boobs. None of them have been raped. So, how do they figure into the statistics? Please people, let us bring some rationality to this very emotional subject. This subject has turned into a witch hunt and a linch mentality. How about false accusations and false memories. These are real issues. For every 10 victums, I would estimate that there is one man who was convicted and he was innocent.

• ##### nita6368

If you have a pediophile molesting 70 victims over his lifetime, or just molesting one victim repeatedly and it being covered up, it is still wrong. If one is molested 1 time, it is wrong. Huge numbers may be hard to accept and people have the tendancy to say, "they are exaggerating" but lets face it, it is happening in the org. It is a pediophile paradise because whether 100 or 1000 have been molested, it has been covered up.

• ##### proplog2

Amazing:

You are committing the fallacy of fake precision. You are making a claim with a kind of mathematical precision that is impossible to obtain. Your precision is simply guessed at because you are treating approximate data as if it were precise. In fact you don't have access to any precise data with reference to JW's and this issue.

I'm glad to see Jan and Larc question you. Many here are not "scientific" thinkers and fall for this tactic. It has never been proven that Jehovah's Witnesses are a "Pedophile Paradise". That is the propagandistic slogan of Bill Bowen. Even the Dateline interviewer pursued that claim. "Come on "Pedophile Paradise"? he asked Bill. Bill then responded "I sincerely believe that"

The sincerity of a belief has absolutely nothing to do with the facts of a situation.

• ##### JanH

The term "pedophile paradise" is very fitting, but it has little to do with numbers.

The term was originally coined here in Norway many years ago after a number of publicized cases. It did not refer to the number of victims or criminals. It refers to the fact that the WTS protects pedophile predators in their ranks from the authorities. Thus, once you are a pedophile, you are safer in the JW organization than elsewhere. This has been well documented and is not in serious dispute.

Let's not confuse the issue by propagating dubious figures.

- Jan

• ##### amac

I have to admit that although I view pedophilia as a problem in the WT due to their policies, I do not like the term "Pedophile Paradise." It seems to be an emotional tag intended to stir up attention and hatred against the JWs. The entire world has been a "Pedophile Paradise" for centuries. There are many cultures that are still a "Pedophile Paradise." I have no problem in bringing the policies of the WT on child molestation to the public, but I personally will not use terms like "Pedophile Paradise." (Despite the fact I just repeated it several times!)