Look out Boeing and Airbus - you're domination of Aviation may soon be over

by fulltimestudent 26 Replies latest social current

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    DJS: Competition is a good thing. We shall see what this symbiotic Russian/Chinese deal can do. These two are playing nice together right now; that's got to be great for the planet in the long run - assuming world domination militarily speaking isn't on the horizon! Then it could get ugly.

    There's a saying in Aussie politics: "Today a rooster, tomorrow a feather duster."

    Which highlights the way that political change can be very fast. However, attempting to analyse the situation, it think it could be argued that neither Russia or China are very much interested in attempting to dominate the world by building 900+ military bases all over the world (grin-and I'm sure you will get my joke). I've spent six years attempting to understand Chinese history and thought, so I just may see it a little clearly. I found early that I could not study China in isolation.** So I've also had to spend some time looking at surrounding political units and their thinking.

    I'm not sure if Americans get the idea that other people may think differently. Russia, is the inheritor of Byzantine thought and culture, and once you understand that, its all a bit clearer. As far as China is concerned, I suggest they are far more likely to use the traditional Chinese method of building alliances with surrounding states (which is what is happening with Russia) than to seek world domination.

    But to me, there is a delicious irony in the way that they are using 19th century European arguments, to trade their way to wealth. We could look back to history to see examples of previous Chinese stategies to build wealth, and I'm still thinking how appropriate that may be, or whether the labels of the past are just being used to explain something new.***

    The worst thing you can do though, is believe your own propaganda. (Even the communists knew that.****) So can I ask you, was Teddy Roosevelt's concept of American Expansionism, different to world domination?

    And, is the American policy of using sanctions to attempt to alter state behaviour very different to the Christian concept of ex-communication, etc?

    Anyway, this is getting too reflective, so I'll stop there.

    ----------------

    ** And, by the way, western propaganda notwithstanding, no East Asian nation has ever been isolationist. Its true that in the 19th C, they closed their borders to Europeans, but study each act of closure and you find that bad behaviour on the part of Europeans was at the root of the closure.

    *** btw, there's a very interesting paper by a Chinese scholar, that looks at contemporary American methods of attempting to control the world, through the lens of the Chinese tributary system. Seen through that lens, we can understand a lot about contemporary Australian politics.

    **** My GAYXJW friend, when he was a witness, converted an East German refugee - that had been granted refugee status in OZ- He had been a member of the Central Committee of the East German Communist Party. At Party school, they were taught. "Don't believe our own propaganda." I always thought it so ironical that he escaped East Germany, and then spent his life in an autocratic religion, country Victoria

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Zordino: It's a pipe dream to think they will over take the large North American and European Aviation companies.

    Do you ever think, Zordino that everything we do in the world had a beginning.

    Thinking back to when the European's were establishing Airbus, some people used that precise argument as to why Airbus would fail. But national governments used their influence on their own airlines, and we see where Airbus is today.

    Thinking back a little further, when the Japanese (then known as a nation that produced cheap rubbish-haha) started making cars, people laughed! ( I recall Datsun branding a certain model, as 'Cedric' - Australian's made jokes about a stupid name -which it was-for a stupid car-and it was not a good car, either) But the Japanese car industry got better, and today, Zordino, is it a joke?

    South Korea followed a similar path, as has China. Did you know that China produces near 28% of the all the cars made in the world? In 2013 China made a total of 18,085,213 cars, against the USA producing 10,424,280, and Japan making 8,189,323. OK, some may be like that Datsun Cedric, but others are well along the way to being world best. (Source: http://www.countryranker.com/which-country-produces-most-cars-in-the-world-largest-producer/ ).

    The Chinese aviation market will be one of the largest in the world. India also will be a large market, and is already making military aircraft with Russia, if a combined China/Russia airplane is good, and when we check the existing build quality and engineering, there is no reason to expect that it will be less than good, the Asian national markets will be likely to go with the Chinese/Russian aircraft.

    There's only one way to make sure it is not like that, isn't there?

  • Zordino
    Zordino

    FTS, I assume you're of Chinese decent? I would also never buy a Chinese made car, toy..... anything. I would buy Japanese, Korean any day. They are not as much with the mentality " make it as cheap as possible and cut corners" They take pride in their products. It's part of their culture to produce quality products.

  • Zordino
    Zordino

    Also, Russia and China are run by quasi oppressive Authoritarian regime's. Those types of governments have not ever done the world any good.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Zordino: FTS, I assume you're of Chinese decent? I would also never buy a Chinese made car, toy..... anything. I would buy Japanese, Korean any day. They are not as much with the mentality " make it as cheap as possible and cut corners" They take pride in their products. It's part of their culture to produce quality products.

    Zordino, my friend, you have completely misunderstood how it all works. The people who make the decision about the quality of goods in your local shops are your own countrymen.

    They place the orders with Chinese factories, usually with a specification that sets out the quality of the goods they think they can sell. If they do not use some form of specification, then they are complete amateurs. All the major importers from China will have teams of technical experts working to ensure that they receive the quality that they have specified.

    This policy (of supplying what the customer requests) has allowed China to do something that has never occurred before in history. That is, to move some 700-800 million out of poverty within roughly one generation, and hopefully within another generation to move many of the remaining poor up to some sort of better life.

    That is what attracted my attention and I decided to study this phenomen.

    The Chinese government is controlled by highly trained and experienced men. To get near the top, potential national leaders have to demonstrated that they can succeed in advancing the economies of at least two provinces. Whenever important decisions are to be made there are major consultations with a variety of opinions canvassed.

    The previous export focussed model enabled the advancment of China to where it is now, so whether you buy or not buy is hardly important, but the government is quite conscious of the limitations of that model and some years ago started a slow shift to an improved model, but the fact remains that that model has allowed the Chinese government to accumulate trillions of dollars in reserves, in contrast to another government that has accumulated trillions of dollars of debt in much the same time frame.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Its interesting how some can make sweeping statements, that in reality demonstrates their own limited understanding of the world and their own blind acceptance of their own propaganda.

    A report in FlightGlobal (a web based aviation journal) overviews the advanced work of aeronautical engineers in Russia.

    For example, take this aircraft:

    When the huge 171t (377,000lb) Tupolev Tu-114 turboprop (above) flew in 1957, it was by far the world's biggest production airliner of the time. It could seat up to 220 passengers and was the heaviest and largest airliner in service until the widebodies arrived in the 1960s.

    So why didn't it ever become a commercial success? The simple answer is that: 1. commercial aviation was not important in the former Soviet Union, and 2. Capital (finance) was always scarce.

    If Russian design can be in the forefront, as it was evident in the above example, and we add to the formula Chinese skills in money management and production, then a future that deprives Boeing and Airbus of the lucrative Asian market is feasible, and making sneering remarks will not make it go away.

    The overview by FlightGlobal continued:

    A few years ago, Antonov studied the development of a passenger-carrying version of the An-225, which would have seated 500-600 people on two decks. The Myasishchev design bureau has proposed a giant 500-seater featuring a wide "lifting body" fuselage based on its high-altitude M-60 surveillance aircraft.

    The most exciting recent Russian giant design proposal appeared at the Sukhoi pavilion at the 1999Paris air show, where a huge model of its proposed KR-860 twin-deck airliner was displayed. The four-engined 860-seater would have 12-abreast triple-aisle seating on the main deck, and a nine-abreast, twin aisle upper deck. Entry would be either through conventional fuselage doors or forward and aft ventral escalators.

    The wing design incorporates winglets and a fold outboard of the outer engines. The design has a maximum take-off weight of 650t, 50t more than that of the An-225, while an all-cargo model would offer a 300t payload. Maximum high density seating could exceed 1,000.

    Sukhoi, which usually specialises in military designs, hopes to set up an international programme to develop the giant project, but with little interest from the West, the design seems destined to remain a pipe-dream.

    I suggest that in view of the Russian-Chinese agreement, Sukhoi's dream can become a Boeing/Airbus nightmare.

    Link: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/giant-dreams-59888/

  • breakfast of champions
    breakfast of champions

    Only if "soon" is several decades from now.

    Interesting though. . . . .

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    COMAC ARJ21 Gu.jpg

    China's first regional passenger jet, known as the ARJ21-700 (pictured in flight at the Zhuhai Air Show in 2010), has just passed its airworthiness tests.

    Certified: China's first indigenous regional jet

    English.news.cn   2014-12-31 09:55:32


    BEIJING, Dec. 31 (Xinhuanet) -- China's first domestically produced regional jet model has been officially certified. This marks a crucial step forward for the jet's entry into the market.
    The ARJ21-700 won the certificate after a series of examinations by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, using the country's air-worthiness standards. ARJ-21 is short for Advanced Regional Jet for the 21st Century.
    The regional liner was designed and manufactured by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China. There are 78 seats in a dual-class configuration, and 90 seats in a full economy class configuration. Its economic life is designed to be 60-thousand flying hours or 20 calendar years.
    (Source: CNTV.cn)

    This is still a long way from making the Chinese aviation industry a competitor of Airbus and Boeing, but its a step in that direction.

    Comac (the Chinese manufacturer) will most directly compete with Canadian Bombadier Aerospace and Brazilian Embraer. Japan's Mitsubishi also have some competing products.

  • prologos
    prologos

    perhaps "soon" would be the right word to use on an ex-wt forum, because in wt land the word "soon" has a different meaning than reality.

    Airbus is just delivering the first A350 to Quatar, with 600+ on order, and that new development at the heels of the A 380 the true jumbo. 

    These old companies, like Boeing, the europeans were founded by passionate airplane pioneers* (not the WT kind),, and the Chinese have yet to reach that status in their works. A lot of their products, while very competitive,

    do not reflect a deep understanding what the purpose, the essence of the product really was. As recent aircraft history shows, when it comes to these products, you want to have the very best perfection reflected in their design, manufacture and handling, the best emergency landings were done by glider pilots, even proving the sea-worthiness of the product, -just one open switch away from keeping it from sinking.

    so, Chinese competition will be good, but keep flying the top line though.

    Armand Bombardier, was passionate inventor of vehicles that only accidentally, or as stunts - left the ground,

    Snow mobiles. very successful.  

  • DesirousOfChange
    DesirousOfChange

    Perhaps they can sell them in the "West". How many average Citizens of China or Russia can afford to buy an airline ticket?

    Doc

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