At what point will there be more ex-JWs than active JWs?

by NewYork44M 16 Replies latest jw friends

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  DesirousOfChange

  Having over 50 years in the religion, I look back and have to agree with previous posters that I know more who have left the religion than those who have stayed in the religion. And of course, of those who "stayed in", there are many like me, that are "in under false pretense". We are "in" because there is an "inactive" Publsiher Card in a box in a Congregation nearby and because we make the occasional meeting for the sake of family and because we still "talk the talk" when we are in a JW social group.

  IMO there are many more Former-JWs than there are current JWs. That's clearly true in the "western world" where the internet thrives.

  Most former JWs are just not very vocal about it, because they don't want the repercutions that would result or because they've moved on with their lives and don't give a rattsazz about it.

  Doc
• 

  factfinder

  steve2-

  What do you mean by "a massive hemorrhage of active publishers-in the wake of the 1975 fiasco"?

  I began studying in 1976 and saw the congregation growing. According to the 1978 and 1979 ybs, there was a 1% decrease in 1977 and a 1.4% decrease in 1978. Those were the only years where the total publishers decreased. To me, those decreases are far from "a massive hemorrahage".

  Here in the US, 1977 and 1978 each saw decreases of almost 3%. Then things picked up. The cong I was in saw steady growth.

  Even if the number of x-jws is more than the number of jws, what does that mean? Why would it matter?
• 

  smiddy

  Didnt the organization print in the WT magazine during the 60`s - 70`s the amount of JW`s who were disfellowshipped in one year ? If I remember correctly some years their was like 60,000 , and mainly for immorality .10 years of such losses would amount to 600 000 , but of course many would also return to the fold.

  However I beleive today with the internet you will see a far greater exodus from the WT religion and especially since they have opened JW .ORG TV

  If that doesnt turn off people from JW`s I dont know what will.

  smiddy
• 

  steve2

  Factfinder, there have been previous threads that have provided compelling evidence that in the aftermath of 1975, over a short few years, hundreds of thousands left and/ or became inactive. I think the website jwfacts.com has the specifics. As my above post acknowledges "sure it picked up again". But in more recent years, growth has slowed down in many Western countries.

  You ask Why would it matter? That question would be better directed to the organization itself that tirelessly trumpets these sorts of numbers and - at least earlier in its history - forecast the emptying of the churches and the continued burgeoning of its own numbers. We're still waiting, brothers....

  Call me a well trained Witness of yesteryear whose fascination with growth figures was sparked by the organization's own fastidious fascination. In the larger scheme of things, it likely does not matter - but who ever focuses only on what matters - and who determines what matters anyway?
• 

  designs

  We're all united in that we don't get together for Assemblies....
• 

  factfinder

  It will be interesting to see what the reports are for this service year and the next few to come. Thus far there has been no mention in the km of any new peaks in the US this service year. And I remember when highlights of the new service report were mentioned at the annual meeting. None were mentioned this year, were they?

  Steve2- I also was always interested in the statistics and used to use the monthly fs report in the km to come up with the total mags, hrs, rvs, baptisms and studies each month as well as the ave and peak pubs and pios!

  I even used the distribution figures of magazines placed to estimate the total number printed and when I compared the YB figures I was always very close. I always wanted there to be new peaks in pubs.

  Now it does not matter as much and I'm curious to see if we will see decreases again in the total publishers and other features of the report.

  Tomorrow jw.org may post the Jan. 1, 2015 w online-it should have the updated printing per issue figure. I wonder if 2014 saw any significant increases?

  I know there have been many becoming inactive in recent years, in my area we had 2 English lang. congregations at the kh but now there is only one.
• 

  rebel8

  oranges ≠ apples

  Overall small decrease rate ≠ lack of massive hemorrhage of jws who were active prior to the failed 1975 prophecy

  End of the world prophecies are typically a very effective recruitment technique--that's why they're used in the first place, and then the failure of the prophecy is covered by revisionist tactics.

  http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php