Publisher Statistics

by lurkernomore 30 Replies latest watchtower scandals

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  thedepressedsoul

  Their statistics and numbers are a very hard thing to go by. By letting some count 15 minutes a month alone could have grown their numbers by the hundred of thousands. I have a feeling more changes like that are coming to artifically increase statistics.

  We may see pioneer hours lowered to have more pioneers. The 30 hour aux already inflated their hours preached and placements. Changing studies to door step studies and only needing to be 5 minutes increased the number of studies. I bet by old standards the amount of studies each year would be very very low.

  The funny thing about numbers is you can make them look as good as you want or as bad as you want. It's all about how you spin them and what things you change to make the numbers look better. Expect more changes as things start to slow down.
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  Londo111

  I don't think we have any real evidence either way. There may be some padding in field service hours...maybe some people round them up.
• 

  Phizzy

  Fictional reporting of Hours has gone on for years, when I spotted our worst offender, an Elder who always reported 15 or 16 hours, yet none of us saw him knock a door unless it was C.O visit, when I spotted him putting in his report once, I said:

  "Ah, another great work of fiction, are you going for the Booker Prize ?"

  He reddened and smirked at me in an embarrassed way.

  He was not the only one by far to invent the hours, I am pretty sure that the number reporting on a regular basis is about right for the number of reports received, but does not represent true active Publishers.

  Of course there is always a Peak in August, as Elders chase reports for past months then, and people are counted twice or more in the total.

  My gut feeling is that the true figure for active "proclaimers" is a long way short of 8 Mill. worldwide, but we can never know for sure, its just that if the WT/JW.org mob make a claim, it's a very good bet it ain't true.
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  factfinder

  The elder who studied with me was the cong secratary. He would not include anyone in the reports who did not hand in a FS slip that month.

  Hours may be exagerated, but the number of publishers reported is acurate. Many don't report and are not counted.

  The increase reported is very small, most countries have none and a number show decreases.

  There is a difference between the publisher figure that appears in the YB and the one the CO reports.

  For instance, back in the early 80's I was told by a brother at Bethel that there were 2.9 million witnesses! But I was disappointed when the YB reported 2.6 million.

  The brother told me the reason for the difference was because the YB figure includes only those who reported, the higher figure was the number the CO reported to the branch based on publisher record cards.

  So in other words, the CO reports indicated based on the number of publisher record cards in the cong that there were 2.9 million pubs associating with the congreagations, but the peak publisher figure in the YB of 2.6 million was the number who reported FS.
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  steve2

  But this has long been the case in their annual reports with both the peak number and the average number reported separately.
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  leaving_quietly

  Why does WT publish stats?

  Good question, and one I was pondering last night. As we all know, nowhere in the NT is there any command of continually counting publishers, hours, etc. Can we think about a Bible example of someone who decided to do something like that?

  Well, Jehovah commanded a census be taken a few times, but they had very specific purposes. However, when David did it, there was no specific purpose stated, except: "so that I may know the number of the people". Why was this a sin? According to WTBTS, it's probably because he was incited by Satan to do so (or, perhaps a "bad human counselor", explains the Insight book, since the word rendered Satan could also mean "a resister"). (1 Chron 21:1) The Insight book further says, "On David’s part, there may have been wrong motive due to pride and trust in the numbers of his army, hence a failing to manifest full reliance on Jehovah. In any case, it is clear that on this occasion David’s chief concern was not that of glorifying God."
  
  Now, who incites WTBTS to take a continual census? And what is the reason for that? Who is WTBTS trusting in to get the preaching work done? Could it be pride in numbers?
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  Juan Viejo2

  Almost all growth within the borg falls in two major categories:

  Baptized children of current JWs

  Non-JW spouses and family members moving into JW households (retired or disabled parents, etc.) who convert to keep the peace

  One other category that I keep tripping across that encompasses most non-JW related converts is due to personal tragedy:

  "My husband had just been killed in a car accident. That very next weekend two nice JW ladies came to my door and offered me a free Bible study and explained how I could someday be with my husband again..." and others like that.

  Also in this category are the co-worker or fellow student converts:

  "My marriage was breaking up (or, my parents had thrown me out of the house) and I was desperate. Co-worker JW noticed that I was distressed and joined me for lunch and told me there was a place where I could get support and new friends. I finally decided to go to the Kingdom Hall and immediately felt welcomed and loved ("love-bombing" by the book). Everyone was so nice to me...etc."

  My websites get a lot of emails that are either from leaving JWs who tell these stories about how they got hooked, or by newly converted JWs who are trying to convince me that JWs are really the good people they claim to be and that I am just printing lies about the Watchtower.

  I don't think (other than in convention demonstrations) I've ever seen a case where a new JW was converted because the JWs convinced them during a door to door encounter or a formal Bible study. In fact, everyone that I've met that actually agreed to have a "free Bible study" ended that type of association between the 2nd or 5th study meet. Remember that a lot of Bible Studies reported on the annual report are actually family Bible studies with unbaptized spouses and children who have no choice but to convert.

  That's not to say that no one has ever been converted due to a door-to-door visit. Richard Kelly's mother was converted that way. And Richard Kelly's mother converted my mother that way (actually through a door knock referral). But in both cases, our mothers were in desperate situations due to family tragedies or conflict. So they were vulnerable.

  Those are the key words: Vulnerable or Related.

  JV
• 

  jgnat

  Let's compare how a regular church may pad it's numbers against the WTS.

  A church may count in it's membership total attendance, which means for those who cruise from church to church they may be counted several times by different churches. So many denominations may be padding their numbers with the same folks.

  The publisher numbers from a statitician's point of view, is stringent, because it is time reported by that publisher that month. Counting peak and average can hide trends, though. The WTS has historically basked in the glow of the statistician's praise for their exclusive count of publishers.

  HOWEVER, there are no holds barred on Memorial night. On that night, they count bums in seats. This can include faded, DF'd, DA'd, Submarine Witnesses, never associated, bible studies, neighbours and random relatives. There is some pressure brought to bear on the congregation to beat the bushes and drag whomever they may find in the ditches to this fabulous feast. I think this number is closer to the count of self-declared Jehovah's Witnesses that we see in secular statistics. There are plenty of people who never make the cut (can't bear field service), or are children of Witnesses who associate themselves that never make it to the Yearbook.
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  steve2

  The story of conversion to a religion following loss or tragedy is almost always a story of the triumph of the deep need for consolation over the intellectual need to scrutinize religious claims.

  In times of loss and tragedy, humans go for consolation every time - it's just a damn shame that they are then acutely vulnerable to stories of "happily ever after", whilst their intellectual ability to reason is unplugged.
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  Fencing

  I could count on one hand the number of people that I watched get baptized as honest-to-goodness, pure, cold-call converts. Even the handful I knew who were contacted door-to-door had believing relatives who had sort of softened them up before anyone came to their door. I can only think of one person who had no JW relatives and was discovered door-to-door.