by John Aquila 16 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
Jwfacts show that publisher growth was 15% pre- 1975 and has decline to about 2%. What prevents them from fudging the annual growth and keeping it at something more positive like 10%?
"A great crowd that no man is able to number"
Will they continue to publish the annual growth statistics if it goes
to 1% or below? I don't think they will.
John: I think they will.
Here's why:
When good things happen (i.e. growth), it's the truth.
"Look at how Jehovah is blessing the work!"
When bad things happen (i.e. negative growth), it's the truth.
"It was prophesied, the love of the greater number will cool off."
So, that's why they don't have to fudge the numbers. They have an excuse for both scenarios.
They have been (indirectly) fudging the numbers for a while now:
Their numbers are essentially meaningless for any purpose other than comparison year over year. Luckily they make changes in how they cheat the numbers slowly enough that they're still useful to some extent.
Lying about the numbers would take some corroboration. I think that GB members and the others who assist them with the writing of their articles are aware of problems, but don't directly think they are liars. It's kind of like a state government saying that "profits" from the lottery go to schools. Some of them do, some of them do. So it's not a lie to omit other places the money goes.
Watchtower leaders think that it is okay to mislead the members as long as there is "truth" within what they say. I think that they have manipulated numbers enough to make the "growth" of the last several years seem true in their minds. For some reason, they think that the USA should have growth so they have consolidated lands that used to be counted separately, they have allowed the 15-minute publishers, they have allowed both parents to count a study with their children so that even an inactive couple could claim some time.
They will probably cross the line of truth/lying sometime soon about this, but first they will have to either convince themselves that they are telling "truth" or that deliberate misleading without truth is necessary. If they have a couple of years of no-growth no matter how they manipulate the numbers, I see them flipping to counting people differently by using meeting attendance and phone-in numbers will be included, then they will start counting website hits somehow.
Because none of the numbers are validated from an objective external reviewer there is not much value in the numbers.
Besides questioning the tabulation on the part of HQ, we all know that the numbers at the local level are, in many cases, bogus.
If they have a couple of years of no-growth no matter how they manipulate the numbers, I see them flipping to counting people differently by using meeting attendance and phone-in numbers will be included, then they will start counting website hits somehow.
You hit it right smack on target OnTheWayOut
I was trying to figure out how they would do it and what you said makes perfect sense.
Because none of the numbers are validated from an objective external reviewer there is not much value in the numbers.
That so true, NewYork44M
Don't forget that relatively few look in detail at the annual report and even less look at it in comparison with historical records.
They use headline figures like number of hours and peaks of publishers and studies. They use figure like number baptised, divvy it by 52 and come up with 5000 people being baptised each week, implying there are 50 congregations a week being formed. Not true - there are just as many dying, fading, getting thrown out.
They don't point out that there are more hours for less results. They don't point out it takes 7000+ hours to get one person baptised. They don't point out the obvious stagnation in developed lands.
Figures around how many kingdom halls need to be built are another great headline but the reality is that very few congregations in Western lands actually NEED a KH in that they don't have one or it's completely unsuitable. Who cares - quoting 1000s of halls are needed in the US, Canada, UK, France etc. just makes everyone think there is crazy growth.
The figures have been fudged for years and because too few care no one has noticed. On the other hand, I don't think the same is true about the constant pitch for cash. I am not suggesting this will be the big wake up call to the masses but I don't get the feeling that as many are prepared to suck up the bullshit as perhaps the GB would like.
John Aquila, "A great crowd that no man is able to number"
Excellent point! I never thought of that.
As for the fudging that has taken place the question is why they don't invent their figures completely without having to fudge?
As for the fudging that has taken place the question is why they don't invent their figures
That's what I was thinking VI. If you're gonna lie, might as well go all the way. Fudging is to much work.
