World population vs Number of JW's where's the growth going?

by ed60 10 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • ed60
    ed60

    The rate of growth of publishers has dropped from an average 5.64% per annum over the 15 years prior to 1995, to 2.55% in the 15 years after 1995. Had growth remained above 5%, the 4,950,344 Witnesses in 1995 would have exceeded 11 million in 2010. Instead, there were only 7 million in 2010 - a difference of 4 million people. Factors on conversion and retention, such as Internet education, resulted in growth of 2 million instead of 6 million, just one third of that expected in 1995.

    http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php

    I read this and it got me thinking about how much the global population is rising by annually. So I looked this up on Wikipedia.

    Global population growth is around 80 million annually, or 1.2% p.a. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1925 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing to reach 11 billion by the end of the century. Most of the growth occurs in the nations with the most poverty, showing the direct link betwen high population growth and low standards of living. The nations with high standards of living generally have low or zero rates of population growth.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

    If you factor in global population growth the witnesses growth is around 1.35% a year of newly active or reactivated witnesses. This is done by subtracting 1.2%pa from the 2.55% derived from the year books at jwfacts.com

    If you read the jwfacts.com analysis the numbers spike and then taper off every time there's a major world event like September 11 or the recent global downturn, so a lot of people on the fringe seem to be playing "chicken" with god.

    So, approximately one in every 909 people globally is a JW.

    Since 1995 the average JW growth rate has more than halved from 5.64% per annum over the 15 years prior to 1995, to 2.55%.

    If it halves again over the next 15 years it will be growing at 1.275%, just a smidgeon over the rate of growth for global population. An actual growth of just 0.075%. All this from an organisation that according to its own figures has each of its members investing just a touch below twenty hours a month (on average) in converting new members.

    Now, 20 hours per month... 240 hours a year per member, plus all that printed material / websites / meetings for 1.35% growth factoring out population growth. How inefficient, ineffective and still it continues to plod on like some camel in the dessert slowly dying of thirst eventually it will collapse under its own weight, or a flywheel on some great steam engine slowly, almost imperceptibly spinning to a stop.

    In a kingdom hall complex of 3 congregations, each of 100 members (300 total members) sees about 4 people a year join for 72,000 hours spent in converting new members. 18,000 hours of reported time per convert, plus all the time and effort of printing material, producing websites and running meetings.

    The figures leave me feeling absolutely flabbergasted. It's a jaw-dropping amount of effort for very little result in an organisation that is supposedly trying preach the 'kingdom message' and warn people about an impending war called Armaggeddon. This must surely lead any thoughtful person to wonder if indeed that is the real purpose of the organisation or whether it is just, as many on here would argue, a literature selling business pyramid scheme masquerading as such and I agree with them.

    Both when I was a JW and now that I'm on the outside looking in I'm still staggered by how apathetic they are (I was) towards (A) their message (B) just how many good people will supposedly die if their message isn't accepted (C) that a loving God would do what they propose he's going to do anyway (D) their ability to see it as counting hours rather than saving lives (E) the impossibility of the task that God has been purported to have given them (F) the fact that they see a Paradise as a place in which the current GB and anointed will rule over them as kings and priests and the elders and MS's are princes.

  • Phizzy
    Phizzy

    Interesting figures and analysis, thanks. It is interesting over a long period, 10 t0 20 years say,to see the number baptized, factor in a death rate, and then see the total increse over the twnty or whatever years.

    That bottom line shows the huge number who are either DF'd or simply walk away.

    They have a massive retention problem, which all the while they were being topped up by "fresh meat" in the form of new recruits, they did not give a fig about.

    The problem is for the GB, to now stem the tide of those leaving, they would need to do a root and branch clean-out of so many things that they would lose their beloved power and control.

    A Hobson's Choice they have brought upon themselves.

  • breakfast of champions
    breakfast of champions

    18,000 hours of reported time per convert, plus all the time and effort of printing material, producing websites and running meetings.

    This makes sense only when you realize that the preaching work is mostly NOT about making converts or declaring god's kingdom, but about keeping people busy on a treadmill of activity - a classic cult move.. . .

  • DesirousOfChange
    DesirousOfChange

    There is a "net increase" of 83,600,000 people each year. (Births minus deaths -- 140.4 million born, 56.7 million die.)

    JWs average a net increase of 200,000 each year. (New pubs minus deaths & those going inactive.)

    Thus, each year that Jehovah allows his incompetent PR team to advertize His Good News of Salvation, he must destroy an additional 83.4 million babies.

    Warwick HQ won't be completed until 2017 and surely Jehovah will not bring the Big A before it's completion. Thus, 250 million additional (young) people will have to be destroyed by this delay in Armageddon. JWs paint Him as a patient and loving God.

    Hopefully the birds are muliplying just as rapidly as there are gonna be LOTS more dead bodies to be fed upon.

    Doc

  • ed60
    ed60

    Phizzy

    huge number who are either DF'd or simply walk away... massive retention problem... new recruits, they did not give a fig about... root and branch clean-out of so many things

    ... more like with the new bunker... er... world headquarters being built 'upstate'... in the woods... by a lake... sounds like a cheap horror movie to me.

    breakfast of champions

    the preaching work is mostly NOT about making converts or declaring god's kingdom, but about keeping people busy on a treadmill of activity - a classic cult move

    ... this guy just needs a book bag to fit in... or maybe a literature cart...

    DesirousOfChange

    250 million additional (young) people will have to be destroyed by this delay in Armageddon. JWs paint Him as a patient and loving God.

    but most of them will be in Godless Asia... so don't worry about them...

    birds are muliplying just as rapidly as there are gonna be LOTS more dead bodies'

    - things have progressed since then... I think the latest plan is to use antimatter

    Reminds me of a film about this wierd religious group in Italy and stuff...

  • kaik
    kaik

    A huge problem for JW is indifference toward religion in industrial countries, not only wealthy Western, but also rapidly developing like China, Eastern Europe, Russia. The population feels oblivious toward religious nonsense that was possible in USA during the 2nd and 3rd Awakening, and does not share the same fundamentalist ideology as is prevalent in USA. I would say it is a fair gues that number of DA and DF in many countries are the same as number of JW, as is the case in Czech Republic. WT has not increased much and they will feel fallout once the postwar boomer generation enticed into the JW would die out.

    WT can bet on growth in Africa, Phillipines, and Latin America which have traditional, deep religious feeling. It will be possible that in the future decades WT could abandon much of the developed world and focus its power and influence into third and fourth world countries and keep USA HQ as way to launder money.

  • WTWizard
    WTWizard

    And none of that factors in such as forced participation in the ministry. Most common are minor children that do not have any voice, but are forced by parents to go out in field circus from infancy and turn in field circus reports as young as 4 or 5 (so they can be baptized at age 6). Others are forced because they are bound to job or housing situations dependent on remaining active jokehovians. Many simply cannot function outside the cancer because they were not trained to think or they are kept just getting by (sounds like Russian communism or what is going on in North Korea, anyone?). As with Communist Russia under Stalin or today's North Korea, keeping people just above poverty keeps them trapped. Keeping them working on dead works keeps them from thinking. And this inflates the numbers--take those out, and I wonder if the number would drop well below 7 million.

    Another group of people that inflate the numbers are those who turn in fake time slips or for whom fake time slips are turned in on their behalf. I heard of people here who, under pressure from family, had to turn in fake time slips to keep from losing everything. Usually, they turn in 5-10 bogus hours a month. This is just enough to keep the hounders at bay, but not enough to earn "privileges". Hounders also turn in fake slips for those who do not turn in slips to appease the hounder-hounders. Take these out as well, and you could have the numbers dropping to levels last seen in the early 1980s.

  • alanv
    alanv

    For many on this site the above analysis is nothing new. Paul at jwfacts has shown these figures for many years now and they get updated each year. It is very evident that JW recruitment is in big, big trouble. The real time increase of 1.35% includes of course their own kids, many you would presume would follow in their parents footsteps. So that figure is totally pathetic, and as has been said already the time spent in going from door to door is just to keep witnesses busy.

  • ed60
    ed60

    alanv: The real time increase of 1.35% includes of course their own kids

    Sorry I've confused you Alan, the 1.35% doesn't include their own kids. 2.55% includes their own kids (population growth 1.2%), but admittetly it's still very low and proof of how ineffective door to door ministry, printing tons of literature, the website, meetings are as a means of making new converts.

    Why isn't the work as effective as it once was? I think the answer is that the people who now engage in the ministry now don't really believe in what they're preaching and, as a poster mentioned last week, even have to be taught how to fake an interest in the poeple that they are talking to at the Kingdom Ministry School. http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/274512/1/Really-bizarre-part-on-the-meeting-last-night#.Uw2yeRGPMeg

    Why don't they believe as strongly as they did when I was a kid being raised as a JW? I can think of a few things to start the list but there are many:

    • My own childish naive view of the group that I'd being raised into as being the 'Truth'
    • Stress reaction to constant guilt and fear and, as mentioned earlier, the treadmill of ministry/kingdom activity
    • Education - in general people are smarter now... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
    • Television - being British, the Panorama programme about child abuse within the organisation was an eye opener, especially when they interviewed Theodore Jaracz stepping off the platform at a District Convention. His attitude was alarming to say the least. Certainly lacking compassion or empathy for the children that had been abused.
    • Books, Newspapers and Magazines
    • The works of George Orwell, particularly 1984 and Animal Farm - there are so many parallels to the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society that 1984 should have a subtitle - A Watchtower Parody
    • Independently reading the bible without WT publications
    • A general disrespect for autoritarian and totalitarian rulership because of how harmful its been proven to be (collapse of the Communist bloc)
    • The Internet.
    • They've been losing love 'a perfect bond of union' for years, and they know it because

    'all genuine love rests upon truth. Christian love is no exception. It rests upon faith as an entry ito the truth of God and a liberation of man to all truth. Christians for whom doctrine is distorted into prejudice and who are rendered tense and fearful by the suppression of questioning, cannot love as they should.'

    Charles Davis, A Question of Conscience quoted by Ray Franz in Crisis of Conscience.

  • Vidiot
    Vidiot

    And there are still XJWs who insist that WTS is gonna be around for a long time...

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