This website finally helped me understand the claim of 100% failure rate

by ILoveTTATT 21 Replies latest jw friends

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  ILoveTTATT

  Up to about 5 minutes ago... I still had the notion that MAYBE JW's predicted SOMETHING and got it right... that the League of Nations was going to rise and become the United Nations. I think that JW prophecies/predictions are like a shotgun: shoots many projectiles, one of them has GOT to hit. But prophecies/predictions HAVE to be right in EVERYTHING. You cannot predict 5 different things and then, when one of them gets partly fulfilled, drop the other 4.5 things, change the 1/2 thing you predicted that was right and make it seem like that was the only thing you predicted, and make the entire one point fit AFTER the fact.

  Reading Watchtower Literature throughout the years (1879 till now), and then coming here and getting awesome explanations from people like Leolaia and other researchers, I finally understand the claim that most apostate websites make: THE WT HAS A 100% PREDICTION FAILURE RATE.

  They were lucky that something big happened in 1914... but now I am much wiser and I know that everything they predicted for 1914 did not turn out as they predicted... 1914 has been a date with many different hats... from the start of Armageddon, to the beginning of the last days... etc...

  Thank you very much JWN for completely opening my mind. I hope that I can do the same for people I love.

  Sincerely thanking you,

  ILTTATT
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  Julia Orwell

  Yeah if you throw a bunch of stones into a crowd you're bound to hit someone.
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  Zoos

  I use the SEARCH engine on this site more than anywhere else. There's a ton of great stuff here to sift through.

  There's also a lot of caca on the floor, so be sure to wear your boots.
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  Gayle

  Fortune tellers know how to play the fame. Nostradamus, some will claim, prophesied or did interpretations, but not accurate either.
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  Finkelstein

  Religious charlatans are always predicting things, its their marketing strategy.

  Even if they fail they still win by selling products cultivating money which they keep tax free.
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  Suraj Khan

  This has interesting, significant parallels in the stock market.

  Only a few advice-soliciting brokers gain fame and riches. Most would say that these brokers are somehow inherently better at predicting rises and falls in the market. Unfortunately, it's very possible that the few that achieve this reputation owe their fame and fortune exclusively to luck.

  Let's assume a body of 144,000 brokers (heh) and reassess every two years. Those making money at the end start fresh for another two years, those losing money get fired. Between you and me, let's also assume a perfectly random distribution of positive and negative results.

  After two years, 72,000 would be left.

  After four years, 36,000;

  After six, 18,000;

  Eight, 9,000;

  Ten, we can reasonably expect about 4500 are left standing out of 144,000. A little more than three percent of our original number.

  Ten years have passed and these 4500 brokers look like they can do no wrong. Money flies in under management in the expectation that this small group has the knack to make money. But no - two more years pass and we can expect 2,250 of these alleged brainiacs to lose your money.

  That's why we hear the disclaimer: "Past performance does not guarantee future results." In fact, I would submit one may have absolutely nothing to do with the other.

  Same thing with the Witnesses, which I see as one of the very last Millerite religions standing. In a religion which makes sole claim to The Truth, they have been somewhat right...maaaaybe once. Certainly they've been wrong before and after 1914, and you have only to look at the reversals and counter-reversals in dogma from Russell on down to pop the infallibility bubble. The Witness insistence that they alone possess The Truth is not just nauseatingly hubristic, but demonstrably false, however the reversals might be dressed as 'new light' or a 'finer understanding'.

  Wrong is wrong.
• 

  Band on the Run

  When I was in law school corporate classes, the professors warned us of the dangers of "insider trading," such as federal prison terms, state prison terms, gigantic legal fees, divorce, troubled children, etc. My Securities prof was a legend. He transformed two large areas of law. The problem was that he could only teach seasoned lawyers. One item he did teach well, however, was to warn us to never invest much in the stock market, regardless of knowledge, savvy, good products, etc. He tried it three times and ended up with losses. His wife was not pleased. We were to refrain from the "pig principle" that more is always better.

  I am not aware of a single prophecy that the Witnesses predicted before events that later came true. First, they are uneducated. Reading current newspapers and magazines is prob. forbidden. I notice that they hire outside consultants now. Once I was so impressed with Witness knowledge concerning world affairs. I did appear to know more than my classmates. This abruptly stopped in high school. My teachers' eyes would get wide when I explained some JW nugget of info. They were shocked it was coming from my mouth. I soon learned not to share my nuggets.

  If you forecast in very vague terms, such as Nostradamus, some people will see truth. I watch psychics such as Sylvia Browne and John Edward, with keen interest. If you were now dead and communicating with living loved ones, would you talk about a toy or Puffy, the cat you hated? I want to know the meaning of life, if death was fearsome, is there a God, etc. Without any training, I notice they start out with very broad terms that apply to millions of situations and ask confirmation from the victim. There is no true confirmation. Further, whenever they are on TV, there is a legal disclaimer for a fraction of a second that the show is entertainment and no legal consequences follow.

  Well, if you are in communication with my dear departed, own up to the legal consequences. Has anyone been able to sue the WT for failure of prophecy? No. Fools or uneducated people love these con shows. Millions are lost and lives destroyed. If you think the Witnesses are so bad, just click your cable around all the "Christian" prophet shows. They live as kings and don't care about average viewer who is peniless.

  I once believed it, too. Sometimes I want the magic back. I am glad that it is impossible to return.
• 

  EndofMysteries

  There was ONE thing that Russell got right, up until about 5 years prior to Israel being given back to the Jews, it was taught that the Jews would return to Jerusalem and be gathered back there.

  Rutherford did away with that teaching a few years prior to it actually happening saying that it was obvious that it was spiritual and symbolic.

  It's a good thing they did do away with that teaching or it may have given some credibility.
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  DATA-DOG

  They never claimed infallibility.. they were right about that.
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  Simon

  They were lucky that something big happened in 1914... but now I am much wiser and I know that everything they predicted for 1914 did not turn out as they predicted... 1914 has been a date with many different hats... from the start of Armageddon, to the beginning of the last days... etc...

  They didn't actually predict anything for 1914 I believe. Even into the 1920s they were still saying that Jesus had returned in 1879 (or whatever year it was, I forget).

  So, what they did was they had predicted "Christs return" for a different date then later they changed the date to match 1914 because a lot went down that year and it seemed like a key date. Voila, add a little bait and switch ... and they now claim they fortold Christs return in 1914 ... even though they tacked that year on later in hindsight. Any prophet that needs hindsight is as good as a chocolate fire-guard or an ashtray on a motorcycle.

  We're left with a claim that something invisible happened in heaven where no one can go to check it out but that they foretold the year it would happen even though they didn't.

  Seems like a huge false claim to me and if you happen to believe that whole god and bible nonsense it puts them squarely in the cross hairs of the scriptures that say things like "if someone prophesize in my name and it doesn't happen ... stone the bajeezus out of them 'cause they are a fake lying son of a beotch and I didn't send them, I don't want charlatans giving me a bad name and making it easy for people on the intertubes to mock me. What are they intertubes? Look, that doesn't matter right now ... the prophet Al Gore will invent it but all you need to do is write this all down. But not that last bit. What do you mean you used permanent ink and don't have an eraser?? Jeez ... no, I'm exhasparated, I wasn't calling for you son, go back to your xbox. Oh god. Um yeah? No, I don't want you either holy spirit, damn, this trinity stuff is getting too compicated, I'm going to scrap it but sell it on to those Catholics first ... heck, they're gullible and will believe anything".