A populations numbers game: After the flood

by PSacramento 19 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  PSacramento

  On another forum:

  With the Flood at about 4,500 years ago, it needs less than 0.5% per year growth. That’s not very much. I think today's rate is about 1.7%
  In the next generation after Noah, Shem had 14 grandsons, Ham, 28 and Japheth, 23, or 130 children in total.
  The Bible records longer life spans, so people would have been fertile longer, possibly having several 'families' over their life span.
  Population growth is exponential.
  
  Take the Duggars. They have 19 children. Let's suppose that each child has 3 children, which is pretty conservative. That will be 57 grandchildren. Then suppose that this trend continues. Some children may have no offspring and some more, but let's say they average only 3.
  57x3=171
  171x3=513
  513X3=1,539
  
  After that the numbers start to go up rapidly. exceeding hundreds of thousands in just a few more generations.
  
  If there were 300 million people in the world at the time of Christ’s Resurrection, this requires a population growth rate of only 0.75% since the Flood, or a doubling time of 92 years—much less than the documented population growth rate in the years following the Flood.
  
  The Jews are descendants of Jacob (also called Israel). The number of Jews in the world in 1930, before the Nazi Holocaust, was estimated at 18 million. This represents a doubling in population, on average, every 156 years, or 0.44% growth per year since Jacob. Since the Flood, the world population has doubled every 155 years, or grown at an average of 0.45% per year. There is agreement between the growth rates for the two populations. Is this just a lucky coincidence?
  
  http://creation.com/where-are-all-the-people
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  blondie

  I always wondered about Adam and Eve (4026 to 2370 {flood}) 1656 years. With their sons being only able to marry sisters, nieces, even daughters? Starting with Lamech, who had 2 wifes, multiple wives could have sped it up. Of course, the bible says humans lived long lives, 969 for Methusaleh.

  After the flood, Noah and wife (I assme they had no children after the flood), their 3 sons and 3 wives. Did Noah's sons take more wives among their families descendants. Did humans have shorter lifespans (120 years perhaps). Nimrod was the great-grandson of Noah. So it was not that long since the flood. I too wondered how they had so many people then. Supposed Noah lived 350 years after the flood making him 950 years old.
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  likeabird

  Take the Duggars. They have 19 children. Let's suppose that each child has 3 children, which is pretty conservative. That will be 57 grandchildren. Then suppose that this trend continues. Some children may have no offspring and some more, but let's say they average only 3.
  57x3=171
  171x3=513
  513X3=1,539

  That's counting three children per person, but seems to have overlooked that it takes two people to make three children and should count 1.5 children per person.
• 

  sir82

  Well, yeah, you can make the numbers do pretty much anything once you accept the premise of 90 year old women giving birth, flood survivors living 3, 4, 500 years afterward, etc.

  The only possible explanation is "God did it, it was a miracle" - so why bother to make it sound reasonable?
• 

  PSacramento

  Actually, I don't think those calcs are based on "abover average life spans".

  What growth rate is needed to get six billion people since the Flood?

  It is relatively easy to calculate the growth rate needed to get today’s population from Noah’s three sons and their wives, after the Flood. With the Flood at about 4,500 years ago, it needs less than 0.5% per year growth.6 That’s not very much.

  Of course, population growth has not been constant. There is reasonably good evidence that growth has been slow at times—such as in the Middle Ages in Europe. However, data from the Bible ( Genesis 10,11 ) shows that the population grew quite quickly in the years immediately after the Flood. Shem had five sons, Ham had four, and Japheth had seven. If we assume that they had the same number of daughters, then they averaged 10.7 children per couple. In the next generation, Shem had 14 grandsons, Ham, 28 and Japheth, 23, or 130 children in total. That is an average of 8.1 per couple. These figures are consisent with God’s command to ‘be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth’ ( Genesis 9:1 ).

  Let us take the average of all births in the first two post-Flood generations as 8.53 children per couple. The average age at which the first son was born in the seven post-Flood generations in Shem’s line ranged from 35 to 29 years ( Genesis 11:10–24 ), with an average of 31 years,7 so a generation time of 40 years is reasonable. Hence, just four generations after the Flood would see a total population of over 3,000 people (remembering that the longevity of people was such that Noah, Shem, Ham, Japheth, etc., were still alive at that time).8 This represents a population growth rate of 3.7% per year, or a doubling time of about 19 years.9

  If there were 300 million people in the world at the time of Christ’s Resurrection,2 this requires a population growth rate of only 0.75% since the Flood, or a doubling time of 92 years—much less than the documented population growth rate in the years following the Flood

  .
• 

  FadeToBlack

  There is no way in hell that all of known history could be squeezed into the time from when 'the earth was divided' (sometime after 2370) until Abraham showed up in Egypt. 2370 is total nonsense. I wish I had chosen that as my username: 2370.
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  Billy the Ex-Bethelite

  "Is this just a lucky coincidence?"

  Pulling numbers out of one's ass isn't a "lucky coincidence." Whoever posted that on the other forum thinks he can come up with some numbers as a smokescreen to conceal facts.

  Anyone that's actually read Genesis can't help but be puzzled as to how almost immediately after the flood, the world is again filled with adults.

  The poster of those magic numbers is really trying to ignore the elephant in the room: If all the animals of the world fit on Noah's ark, how do we have millions/billions of species today? Is he going to apply his same numbers to species proliferation and say that we see 0.44 to 1.7% growth in the number of species every year?

  And I don't know why the writer would think that those population calculations prove that the Noachian flood would be true. At best, he says that the numbers can't disprove the flood. Big deal. Shamus could put on a dress and try to convince us that he's Kim Kardashian. Just because none of us could prove that he isn't, doesn't mean that he is.

  
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  Blind_Of_Lies

  So all things biblical excluded we need to think about science when trying to breed some logic into the story of the flood. We have a lovely movement in the modern world called the Endangered Species act that has done years of extensive research into saving endangered wildlife and repopulating a particular species. According to their research (you can read details here) a species must have a median number of individuals in order to survive and thrive enough to overcome old age, disease, predation and actually have long-term gains in their population hence avoiding an extinction. In today's modern age that number is 2,400. For example there must be 2,400 White Tigers in the wild in order to have a long term viable species. Anything less than that and the rate that the animals die outpaces the rate they can reproduce in modern times we have been able to save some species using captive breeding programs however that would never be possible for a half dozen stone age people when scaled up to deal with several hundred if not thousand species that could realistically fit on the ark. Humans are included in this. If you factor in the infant mortality rate back then you are likely to see the entire human species either dead or nearly dead inside of 20 years post flood. Roughly 50% of the infants would die at birth along with their mothers and once you run out of fertile ladies things look pretty bad for the species in general.

  Game animals (two each for unclean and 7 each for clean if i remember correctly) would quickly be picked off by predators and the predators would quickly out eat their food supply and they too would die off quickly either from starvation or lack of reproduction.

  Any way you look at it the story of Noah's flood is nothing more than a story.
• 

  Terry

  There have been millions and millions and millions of deaths, too.

  Wars, famine, pestilence, accidents, murder, suicide, natural disasters (Tsunami, earthquakes, floods, fires, etc.) which wipe out people otherwise

  available for reproduction.

  For all the expanded lifespans there are more than plenty foreshortened lifespans on the other end.

  The variables can boggle an honest mind.

  Ever heard the old saying: There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics!
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  PSacramento

  This isn't really about the noah story, it's about how feesible it is that the current human population we have now could have come from a small group pf people.

  According to the article, they are going with a .75% growth rate since the flood ( which takes into account wars, famines, things like that) and my question yes, do the number add up?

  I am not an anthropologist so I have no idead how valid the argument is.