by BizzyBee 166 Replies latest members politics
You have your estimate, Bizzy - I have mine. One is as good as another at this point - not even the professional polls are believable (and they are all over the place).
We have not yet seen how the Arab Spring attacks are going to play out over the next month.
We also have yet to see how the debates turn out.
Yes, I suppose something could change. But it is unlikely given what we do know. I'd say the single most determinative factor is Romney's tone-deafness, which is becoming more and more evident every day. I don't know how he can change that - it's part of his DNA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJJKW7ea1oc&feature=player_embedded
Hmmm, it's almost like Mitt has a complete lack of personal responsibility for the response to his own actions and words, or even a sense of entitlement, as if he's expecting the POTUS to be handed to him on a silver platter?
Oh, the bitter-sweet irony....
Still 50-50 by my present count.
But you should plan for the worst.
That is the worst, electing one of the approved Kleptocratic Party candidates instead of rejecting them for being unacceptable.
NC said:
Well of course they do, and now they know that they are held in utter contempt by their party, their candidate, and fellow conservatives. Perhaps it will have an effect, perhaps social issues trump all for them, but I hope they stop voting against their interests and for a party that hates them.
What we MAY be witnessing here is the "awakening" of aspirational voters, i.e. those who bought into the dream that by voting for wealthy GOP candidates that they'd actually BECOME a wealthy member of the country club, who paid their "dues" by voting for the approved candidate.
Now that they're hurting and getting older, they may be realizing that it's not going to happen, and are shocked when they realize that "their" candidate has disdain for them and their plight. (Parallels to JWs, anyone?)
What the COUNTRY needs is putting an end to the hyper-polarization, with both sides not treating this as if they're rooting for "their" football team to win. It's not, and we've wasted a number of years on the obstructionist tactics, and it's time for grown-ups to LEAD, not play their ego-driven games.
(And the cynic in me can't help but predict it'll never happen, but I'd be THRILLED to be proven wrong, LOL!)
Still 50-50 by my present count.
Which is pretty much where the latest tracking polls are.
I have lost touch with that other thread where we were giving updates every week or so on the odds.
Should we start another one?
I moved my odds from 52-48 Romney after the Republican Convention back to 50-50 after the Democratic Convention.
Each side claims to be seeing momentum and momentum for their guy day by day, but I cannot really see much change.
I'd say the single most determinative factor is Romney's tone-deafness, which is becoming more and more evident every day.
That's what you'd like it to be. That's what you really hope it will be. You are projecting. The big issues--economy, jobs, deficit, the Middle East, China, and so on, are also important--and not good for the incumbent.
Should we start another one?
Please do. This one is just chest thumping by BB et al.
The big issues--economy, jobs, deficit, the Middle East, China, and so on, are also important-
Of course they are. But if one cannot effectively articulate their vision for handling those issues, they're sunk.
For example, Romney on the Middle East:
So what you do is, you say, you move things along the best way you can. You hope for some degree of stability, but you recognize that this is going to remain an unsolved problem....and we kick the ball down the field and hope that ultimately, somehow, something will happen and resolve it.
Doesn't exactly inspire confidence, does he?
