World map showing net reduction in publisher numbers

by cedars 188 Replies latest jw friends

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  cedars

  00DAD -Thanks for that! I'll definitely give that some thought. To be honest, I'm always a little nervous of doing "projections" based on external sources, because I prefer to do simple calculations that a JW could do him or herself in order to verify things and see that I'm not making it up. That said, I needed to refer to internet penetration statistics when producing my research on that, so why not mortality rates for this? Hm, I'll think about it. Watch this space!

  P.S. - I could just imagine a hardcore dub saying "normal mortality rates don't apply to JWs because we live happier and healthier lives!" lol

  Cedars
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  ziddina

  OOOOOOOOO!!! [high-pitched girly - er, she-devil squeal]...

  This is GREAT!!

  Thanks, Cedars!
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  factfinder

  Thank you Cedars!

  But I do not use Baptism figures to compare with publisher figures as everyone getting baptized is already a publisher. Thus you'd be counting them twice.

  I began to preach and report fs in 1976.

  I did not get baptized until 1978.

  I WAS a publisher already for 2 service years and was included in the 1978 peak publisher figure so even though I was a newly baptized on e that year you could not count my baptism in addition to the number of publishers reported.

  Anyway-thanks for going through the trouble to produce the map.

  Its interesting that over 375,000 got baptized in the 1997 service year and it has not been near that since.

  I wonder what occured at that time to cause that spike?
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  Vanderhoven7

  I was told the WTS is one of the fastest growing religions. Using these map stats I come with negative organization growth. Presumably those 263,000 baptized in 2011 are considered publishers. Even with the addition of 263,000, the overall publisher numbers went down by 100,000 odd. Am I missing something?
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  darthfader

  wow.... lm simply amazed
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  factfinder

  Each of the 263,000 who got baptized in 2011 were ALREADY publishers and counted as such before getting baptized.

  We cannot ADD the 263,000 to the 2010 publisher figure because they were already included in the publisher figures as I was for 2 years before my baptism.
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  Momma-Tossed-Me

  Watchtower has hit peak oil, it decline is forth coming
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  Quendi

  Fascinating analysis, cedars, especially when you compare your findings with the spin the WTS always gives the yearly figures. Of course, the WTS has never published bar charts that would graphically show the slowdown in growth and reach. The Society now prefers to keep the drum beat of the approaching end of the world to motivate its overworked and increasingly disillusioned followers. The organization will also use its favorite browbeating tactic of telling publishers they must "do more" in Kingdom service if they expect to survive the end. Your analysis shows that the law of diminishing returns is clearly at work. How long will it take before even the most sanguine Witness realizes that he is wasting his time, effort and money?

  Quendi
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  cedars

  factfinder - I hear what you're saying, and I agree with you to an extent. You must be aware that these figures are only approximate, and based on monthly averages in the first place. They're intended to give an idea of the amount of publishers leaving the organization in each country.

  It would be nice if the Society could publish the exact number of baptized and unbaptized publishers. For some reason, it doesn't do this. From what I can gather, it aggregates the sum of baptized publishers and unbaptized publishers as you suggest. However, the "baptisms" statistic still gives us a useful indicator of the number of new adherents being attracted on a yearly basis. Remove that figure from the yearly surplus, and what you have is a "rough idea" of the minimum number of people that have left. The true figures may be much higher once new unbaptized publishers have been accounted for. The fact is, we can never know.

  It amazes me that some countries post massive growth even when you subtract the number of baptisms. For example, Mexico would have grown by 7,560 publishers even if you took away their baptism figures! These are obviously new unbaptized ones reporting, but it just goes to show that it swings both ways, and some countries ARE experiencing impressive growth.

  Cedars
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  St George of England

  There are far too many people looking at the annual figures with a critical eye!

  This is probably why the WT and Service Meeting items early each year where the publishers had an opportunity to comment on the 'increased growth' have been quietly dropped.

  George