Reduced Magazines Etc: Scenario Thinking

by metatron 44 Replies latest jw friends

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  metatron

  Forgive me for creating this thread but I believe there are aspects of Watchtower downsizing that have not been fully understood or 'fleshed out'.

  For example: You have a publishing company whose main source of revenues are book and magazine production and sales. Their international presence is supported by the profits they make on these. So far, so good...

  Overtime, their products fail to sell. Revenue declines and after a while, their net profits vanish. They no longer have the money needed to fund their offices and salesmen and workers. Even if they make severe cutbacks, they may not get back to being profitable - creating losses as far as can be projected.

  They may try to enter other businesses - but it is highly unlikely that these efforts will quickly fill the vacuum created by the loss of their MAIN SOURCE OF INCOME - if ever! For one thing, it is likely that they are trying to enter areas dominated by people who got there ahead of them.

  I think the above might summarize why you are seeing endless cutbacks and downsizing by the Society. Their efforts to fill the gap with inheritance money and cash from assemblies probably don't come close to the regular income they used to receive from their main business : selling books and magazines. This is why they are selling off branches, fading out Gilead and more.

  The internet is already well developed and hardly a friendly venue for their products. Too much 'competition' from porn and apostates, to begin with. Too much distraction.

  How can they successfully separate the Watchtower business from the Watchtower religion? I don't think they can. Suppose they 'go all internet' and tell the friends to download the magazines? Well, if Witnesses aren't bothering to read the magazines now, what do you think such a future holds for the coherence of the Organization?

  How do they fund C.O.'s and D.O.'s? And their Legal Staff?

  And speaking of that - consider that the less 'profit' they make , the more vunerable they are to liability issues! If they were afraid of getting sued before, consider how much worse that threat becomes IF THEY ARE LIVING "HAND TO MOUTH" off of dead Witnesses and whatever cash comes in from assemblies full of broke Witnesses? Will they be more willing to fight for their traditional issues like blood or neutrality or whatever.... OR LESS LIKELY?

  What frame of mind or psychology will prevail in Governing Body motivations if they discover Witness wallets are simply closed, period? Do they retire to upstate NY and mutter to themselves? Give up and enjoy the country club they built? Even if they are inclined to struggle and fight, so what? Will that make any difference?

  Would the tone of their theology change? Into something darker and MORE negative, once they can no longer deny their decline? If they opt for "well, it just shows how close the End really is", how does that get sustained?

  What does the experience of the NY Times and various magazines ONLINE tell you about how profitable this digital outreach actually is .... OR ISN'T!

  Think about it... Their 'business' is evaporating. If they fail to replace it, they have no business, they are out of business!

  metatron
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  baltar447

  I think people are overthinking this. There are PLENTY still donating, literature or not. While I think there may be negative effects from this move(yay I hope so), I don't think it will hurt donations much if at all.

  Also, there may be a few older ones that might hop online now, but the vast majority that would be online already are.
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  metatron

  The evident "hurt" is already upon them.

  "plenty" donating isn't enough - they must have donations over and above the cost of the printed material - if not, their dominant source of money is gone. Their core business is missing... cuts must be made.....layoffs to follow...

  Their biggest growth is in the 3rd world - which are the poorest nations. Little Nkomo's chickens aren't going to fund much, however heroic he might be in sending his pennies in to WTS HQ.

  People talk about them becoming 'efficient' - but my experience suggests that businesses don't get serious about efficiency unless they feel the pain of no/low cash flow.

  metatron
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  Juan Viejo2

  What many observers of the Watchtower fail to note is that they have not really been making money from selling books and magazines for many years. When they stopped presenting the magazines for a suggested price and had to go completely to "donations," income immediately switched from public contributions to member donations.

  I understand that some countries may still allow the magazines to be "sold" for specific donations, but in the USA this is illegal and also has negative tax ramifications (state and local taxes on gross sales of magazines and subscriptions). Basically, it is the JWs themselves that are donating the cost of the magazines, plus their time, gas, and cleaning bills to place literature in the hands (or dump on the porches) of householders.

  The Watchtower's switch to Internet delivery of materials using PDF, eBook, and some POD (print-on-demand) reproduction will dramatically lower their costs of production in all categories. In the near future they'll need fewer volunteers running presses and working the mail rooms, minimal paper and ink, and the ability to sell off most, if not all, of their printing presses, trimmers, and bindery machines.

  My guess is that they can easily reduce their ongoing expenses by 50% or more by making the switch to Internet publishing. Not to mention that they get a much more effective worldwide delivery system. They probably regret not going this way about fifteen years ago when the Internet was just beginning to hit its stride - instead of demonizing it.

  The danger in all of this for the Watchtower is twofold: (1) More exposure to the Internet may cause more JWs to find reasons to leave the religion or not to enthusiastically preach the WTs defective and unsupportable doctrines; and, (2) Once the R&F realize how much money the Watchtower is saving, they may cut back on donations to the worldwide preaching work. Both possibilities have to put fear in the hearts of the NY and PA corporations and the Governing Body.

  If folks like us can somehow get the message out to average JWs and their families that other than for local Kingdom Hall expenses, the donations they send to WT HQ is even now not going for new printing presses and publishing supplies, but rather for lifetime tax free incomes and first-class world travel expenses for the Governing Body and the upper management of the Watchtower publishing company. If the average Witness who is struggling to survive and support his family finally understands that the leaders of the Watchtower don't really care about him, his family, and the rest of the rank and file - but only see them as sheep to be herded and sheared each month - then maybe average JWs will think twice about dropping their grocery money in the boxes and donations will drop off substantially.

  This is a message that we need to emphasize. Let the average JW understand that their only role within the society is to supply an endless supply of money to Patterson, Wallkill and Brooklyn. Remind them that the one message that is repeated at every assembly, convention, special meeting, and several times a month at their Kingdom Hall is the need for more donations to be sent to the Watchtower HQ. Local JWs build and pay for their Kingdom Halls and Assembly Halls, but the Watchtower ends up owning them free and clear and pays no taxes on the properties. The locals pay for all the monthly expenses, utilities, insurance, and upkeep.

  There is a reason that the Watchtower is building new Kingdom Halls as fast as they can - even in areas with well-kept and satisfactory Halls in place.

  We now have an opportunity to get this message out. Everytime a JW goes to the Internet to access JW.org we want them to stumble across another website that educates them about the facts and exactly what they have gotten themselves into. Whenever a non-Witness wants more information about Jehovah's Witnesses, we want them to find 100 other sites that tell the real story and blast them with facts.

  I am feeling very optimistic right now.

  JV
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  metatron

  I, too, am feeling optimistic about this.

  I have to laugh frequently when I read someone say defensively, 'they are cutting expenses' without adding... "and probable revenues as well".

  Keep in mind that habitual, steady donations may mean a slow death for Watchtower interests because of inflation. Take a look at many congregations accounts reports thruout the US and note that many of them are sending in somewhat less than they used to do before the Dreaded Voluntary Donation Arrangement.

  metatron
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  baltar447

  I really hope that this just KILLS them but honestly I don't see that happening. It would be AWESOME, but I think they will be able to exist for a LONG time with minimal printing in Canada and selling all that prime real estate in Brooklin they will be around a while.
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  Mickey mouse

  They probably regret not going this way about fifteen years ago when the Internet was just beginning to hit its stride - instead of demonizing it.

  This.
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  AK - Jeff

  They appear to be in trouble. Time will tell.
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  therevealer

  Yah, right. One thing you cannot accuse them of is not looking out for the bottom line. They are in the process of building up a new area on land that they seem to have gotten at reasonable rates. They seem to have lots of money for this project to go ahead. They have already transferred magazine printing to the canadian branch. Now they are going to lessen the demand on printing with less pages. Since they already have the mega project of Patteson and are now building the second such in the general area, are they planning to get rid of watchtower farm. It is getting quite old and perhaps the fact that they will not need the same capacity for printing??? I realize that canada is basically magazines but here too they need less and less capacity for other types of printing.

  Just my rambling two bits worth, but I really do not beleive that they are in financial trouble.
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  wha happened?

  it's a cost cutting move, not revenue cutting. They are simply eliminating items that aren't profitable anymore