is jws really growing or only natural increases from kids.?

by mP 25 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  mP

  @biometrics

  given their record keeping, why would they need to guess. i suppose anyone can do the math as demonstrated and show a lower figure. by adding --guess-- they have an excuse.
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  BroMac

  i don't know much about growth rates, only what i can see.

  for the last 4-5yrs at the CA both special day & 2day the majority is always younger born ins. and the occasional old woman helped into the pool who is dipped in full sunday dress.

  i was at a special day, i think it was 3yrs ago now where there was only 1 baptism candidate, a born in.

  i mentioned this to a friend in the next district to ours and they had 0 baptised.

  when i was baptised in the 90's there were around 30 being dipped, a mix of born ins and adults brought in from D2D

  i remember how it used to take such a long time to get everyone through. 2 at a time.

  Now they still have 2 brothers in the pool doing the baptising but only send out 1 at a time to get dipped.
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  WTWizard

  Growth comes from fake time slips being turned in (whether the publishers or the hounders fill them in), children being baptized and sent out in field circus at age 6, and downright dishonest reporting. You might get some real increase in Nigeria, but elsewhere most of the growth is behind them. Even Mexico and Brazil have slowed down and are soon to lose most of that quick growth, as Japan did during the 1990s and today.
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  outsmartthesystem

  "They count those who put in 15 minutes a month as publishers

  They play with figures to give them what they want

  In the future a 15 min publisher might be classed as a "pioneer" if they put in an hour."

  This is right on. They will continue to lower their standards in order to get more to participate and to get the numbers up. Any lowering of standards will be branded as "jehovah's noticing that it is hard to make a living in this world and that time away from the drudgery of work and every day life is getting harder to come by.....therefore he lovingly instructed the GB to lower the requirements" All the sheeple will laud the GB for such a loving decision and it will be seen as "proof" that God's spirit is in action.

  What is funny is that I could easily see them lowering the standard for a regular pioneer to 50 hours. And then all the witnesses will look at the RECORD number of pioneers and say "wow....Jehovah is really blessing his organization!".....while conveniently ignoring the fact that in a short 20 years...the requirements to qualify have gone from 90 hours down to 50 hours.
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  diamondiiz

  From observing the baptisms while I was still in, it appeared a lot of youth was getting dunked which suggests recruits were rare. I would assume that most baptisms within the developed nations come from born ins or kids of parents who were recruited while the kids were very young.

  Developing countries and especially third world still have very large family structure which may also contribute greatly to more kids of JWs being baptized which again one can question the rate of recruitment in those countries.

  There is no hard data that can be used to show what success they have in the "ministry" but the hours if field circus:baptisms show they're failing miserably! I doubt very much that a majority of baptisms in the developed lands come from recruitment, more like 2:1 for born in baptisms. If one takes into account that at least half of baptisms are born ins, the hours to sucker one in may take 10,000 hours if not more.hey

  Their days of greater recruitment compared to born in baptisms are over IMO
• 

  jwfacts

  Tnis is for SlimBoyFat, since he felt my initial figures had too many unknown variables. Rather than growth, it is easier to map baptisms.

  There were around 6,000,000 Jehovah's Witnesses in 1995, during which time the global average birth rate was 22.4/1000. The estimated number of Witness children born is therefore 134,400. In 2011, when that group of children were around the age of baptism, there were 263,161 people baptised. That means Witness children could only account for at most half (134,400/264,161) the number of baptisms. Witnesses are growing mostly in poor countries where growth rates are higher, but since the Watchtower encourages not to have children, and a sizeable number of children do not get baptised, it seems reasonable to conclude that no more than half the number being baptised is internal and the rest is from preaching. That is not an encouraging statistic, since 1,707,094,710 hours of preaching only resulted in 130,000 conversions, or over 13,000 hours preaching per convert.