Population 7 billion. Changes ahead. (page 2)

Curtains

listener but there is the possibilty that Lion Cask is using the scale that is used by the many rather than the few.

take a look at this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales#Short_scale_countries_and_regions

Vidiot

The big four problems facing ALL humans for the next 50 years:

- unsustainable population growth (caused by the huge advances in 20th Century medicine, but unfortunately saddled with very little cultural change regarding birth rates)

- resource depletion (in part, caused by the above), and the inevitable military conflicts that result

- unchecked climate change (caused by rampant industrialization, and fueled by increasingly draconian lassaiz-faire capitalism)

- the worst effects of Peak Oil and its economic ramifications

Yes, I fully acknowledge that these phenomena seem distinctly "apocalyptic" in nature (particularly since they strongly suggest that a major die-off of a significant majority of humanity might be in the making), and thusly would seem - at first - to bloster the claims of the WTS and other millennialist groups, but a case could arguably be made that these are the main reasons why virtually ALL apocalyptic milleniallist religions' days are numbered.

Think about it for a minute...

Virtually every End-Times denomination - the WTS included - subscribes to an apocalyptic worldview (or, to be more precise, a belief in the impending near-extinction of our species) that manifests itself in an overtly supernatural manner. The details obviously vary from church to church, but I'm referring to overly literal interpretations of Revelation, the Rapture doctrine, etc.

The conditions listed above, however, are domonstrably mundane "real world" phenomena - not supernatural.

In addition, they will affect everyone, showing no favorites; every human being on the planet will be impacted by them in some way, shape, or form, however those conditions manifest themselves; whereas virtually every apocalyptic millennialist group in existence either implies or actively teaches that its membership will be rendered more-or-less immune to the ravages of the Apocalypse by virtue of their fealty and loyalty.

In the face of that, how could the Rapture-Ready crowd - and by extension, the religions that claim to support them - ever collectively recover?

Another way of looking at it is that the majority of End-Times denominations (including the WTS) - as social organisms - will be arguably unable or unwilling to adapt to such radical changes in their environment. However, as we all know, organisms that cannot or will not adapt to a changes in their environment always go extinct. No exceptions.

In addition (and to address more specifically), the WTS does virtually nothing to inform, educate, or otherwise help prepare its 7-million-plus membership to deal with these conditions; one could even go so far as to argue that their failure to do so places their membership at greater-than-average risk. They haven't even attempted to incorporate them into WT eschatology the way they did with the post-WW2 geopolitical environment.

This realization was another hugely significant component of my fade...

BurnTheShips

So. How do you think the world's going to change in the next, say, 50 years?

All infectious diseases will have cures.

All cancers will have cures.

All genetic diseases will have cures.

Short of a catastrophic brain injury which "wipes out memory", all tissue damage will be reparable.

We will solve the problem of human aging: by 2050 we will have the technology to live as long as we choose to.

There will be human beings that will use these biotechnologies to redesign their own bodies. There will be transhumans in 2050.

The above technologies will allow us to bring back extinct species, if we choose to.

The technologies that enable the above will also enable a new green revolution, which is right now in its early stages. If there is hunger in parts of the world, it won't be because there is not enough food to go around.

We will have practical, real world, artificial intelligence approaching or exceeding current human intelligence.

We will have nuclear fusion.

Nanotechnology will make most of the resource constraints of today obsolete. With precise atomic manipulation, we will be able to substitute scarce elements with common ones in many products.

The synergy of these things, and many others, means that we will have other things we can barely even imagine or predict today.

There will major social changes resulting from these advances, particularly life extension, and AI.

Society revolves around the inevitability of death. If death becomes rare, it will cause major upheavals in how human society functions.

AI and transhumanism will make us question what being human means.

However, life will be far better in 2050. Don't fear the future.

BTS

Listener

Thanks for the link Curtains.

Vidiot

BurnTheShips, well said; your points are kinda the flip side of mine, and just as valid.

Again, significantly, while they are potentially mind-blowing (and fascinating as hell, I geek out about 'em, to), they are - once again - mundane, "real-world" conditions, advances, and circumstances; and, because of that, they will inevitably fly in the face of fundamentalist apocalyptic supernaturalism, and thusly will ultimately undermine that worldview more and more, until it dies a graceless death...

Just my opinion.

Mad Sweeney

Something not mentioned yet: fresh water. We are likely to have another source of energy and transportation before running out of oil. There is no substitute for fresh water, though. And 7 billion people need a lot of clean fresh water.

By the way, I like Burn's optimism. For every problem mankind faces, mankind finds a solution. Still, we gotta accept the fact that the problems exist before we can deal with them.

Vidiot

MadSweeny - "I like Burn's optimism."

Me, too. It was an encouraging counter to my thoughts; I appreciated it.

BurnTheShips

Something not mentioned yet: fresh water. We are likely to have another source of energy and transportation before running out of oil. There is no substitute for fresh water, though. And 7 billion people need a lot of clean fresh water.

With cheap, and virtually limitless energy, water won't be a problem.

I know nanotech researchers that have the technology to purify sea water for a fraction of the current cost, even today. Imagine a membrane one molecule thick, with the individual atoms attached to each other using covalent bonds such that the whole thing is a giant molecule, and so arranged that only H2O molecules are permeable. The pores of this membrane are of the size and shape of H2O molecules.

Pour sea water through this filter, and only pure water comes out the other end. All of the salts and other minerals become trapped. Food for thought: each ton of sea water contains about a gram of uranium, thorium, and many other useful elements. With a filter like this one, these become by products from fresh water production. No mining needed.

BTS

james_woods

Considering how positive BTS is for technological panacea by 2050, it seems a shame that many of us will statistically not live to see that year.

I am a lot more conservative than that list of predictions posted above - in particular, the elimination of all disease and the effective prolonging of human life indefinately seem far beyond the possible to me.

Fusion Power? Maybe - but it does not look like present research is moving seriously enough to make this possible in less than 40 years.

One bright spot could be that the rate of population increase may be reduced in the future by social, political, or even natural means.

DagothUr

There will be no Armaggeddon, that is 100 % sure.

Population 7 billion. Changes ahead.

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