Collapse (2009) by Mike Ruppert

by Mincan 33 Replies latest social current

  • JAFO
    JAFO

    Just so everybody are aware of it - Mike Rupert is a pretty controversial guy, for example he believe the american government was involved in 9/11,

    Well, the evidence in Crossing the Rubicon is pretty damning..

    and he has a way of quoting sources in a way that strictly speaking is correct, but which give a misleading impression in the listener.

    Don't agree with you on this point..

    That being said - I believe peak oil/resources is a potential bomb under our way of living and i look forward to seing the movie, i just wish it was a professor in economics or something who had made the presentation :-).

    It's more than just a potential bomb.. we hit peak oil sometime between 2005-2008, depending how you read the data.. we are on the "bumpy plateau" of production right now, and my personal opinion is that we will drop down the slope of the bell-curve in a couple of years or so.. and that production will fall off at the 9% per annum that the International Energy Agency predicted in its WEO2009 report..and for the record, economists know squat about global oil production or how it will impact the world.. hell, most of 'em know squat about the real world..

  • BurnTheShips
    BurnTheShips
    we hit peak oil sometime between 2005-2008,

    We are bouncing along the top right now. As soon as the economy recovers, prices will spike, sending us back down again. It isn't a coincidence that an oil price spike preceded the current recession. We are barely able to replace declines at this point with new sources. And the worst thing about it is, our political class is completely incapable of moving us in the necessary directions to move to alternative technologies. I had hope that things would change after Bush left office. It hasn't, fundamentally. Rigor mortis.

    BTS

  • bohm
    bohm

    JAFO: First off, imagine you are in the CIA and a guy comes to you and tell you: "Hey, i got this swell plan to help us build a pipelines in afghanistan and help us put more cocain onto the streets of america to create an american world-government (as far as i know, that is what he believes the motive was), all we got to do is kill about 3000 americans and start two very expensive wars in the middle east [question: are the wars really making america stronger?]. If anyone figure it out, we will be shot. we got to buy of people in numerous countries who really hate our guts, and rely that hundreds of men and woman in different agencies keep their mouths shut and for once not fuck up. Are you in our out?".

    For a person to accept that offer, you got to be a really mean, evil, psychopatic son of a bitch. And you know that the hundreds of other people you have never known who got to be in on this have to be equally evil, mean and psychopatic. Well, psychopats are usually out to save their own ass, and all it takes is one who think: "Fuck this, if i tape this, and i go to the NY Times with a recording of my superior telling me this, i will be the hero, get a promotion, and i will run no risk of getting shot at a military tribunal if this is ever figured out". FUTHERMORE i have assumed that most people in the intelligence buisness is willing to kill americans without blinking - actually i think there are very few who will do that. I think the average CIA man is a pretty patriotic dude who really think he is in the job to save american lives, and think the wast conspiracy with cocain and one world government does not exist (so do i).

    Besides this - i havent read his book, but i saw some videos of him on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiDX6UQl2no . Its a detail, but i think he presented it wrong: try to read up on why it took so long time to get interceptor planes in the air and compare it to the way Rupert tell the story. I dont think the official explanation is inplausible.

    As for the way he represents sources: http://www.publiceye.org/conspire/Post911/Solomon1.html . Generally i think he should present both sides of the issue when he makes such a serious allegation.

    As for oil production: Well i know diddly squat about oil as well. i have seen various graphs, and i have heard various horror stories about oil. I have also seen other graphs, and heard it is not such a serious problem. So how can i deside? Well, i would assume that to assess oil one would have to take into account two great factors: The total amount of oil avaliable at a given oil price (to take into account that more oil is avaliable at higher prices) and how good and estimate that is of the TRUE quantity of avaliable oil at a given price. Historical figures might come in handy there.

    Secondly its a question of how the world will adapt to less oil - ie how it will affect oil consumption. Thats very much a question for an economist - the disaster people all seem to assume civilization will collapse uniformly, but the western world can (i think) much easier live with 1/3 of the oil we require now than for example india; i mean, we might have to walk to work or take puplic transportation, and it might mean we dont have fertelizer to grow enough corn to raise cattle, but the indian guy suddenly have no gas to go to the market and no fertelizer to grow corn which is a much greater problem. Personally, when it comes to these questions and how it will go down, i will prefer to listen to people with phds to form my oppinion.

    If you ask me - stop the idiotic programs that create biofuel from horribly inefficient crops and take a long hard look at windmill/photovoltic technology before desiding thats the future. Invest those money in turning algea and switchgrass into biofuel, nuclear and battery technology.

    BTS: We agree on something, yah! :-)

  • bohm
    bohm

    While it is stricly not relevant in the discussion, there is an excelent free book on renewable energy that i would recommend everybody to read. The guy who wrote it is a bit of a hero of mine, he is a professor of physics at cambridge and has written another (free) book on statistics and information theory that really sparked my interest in the field. He is no crackpot, and i think he is on to something because he never pretend to do advanced stuff with his figures. The overall project of the book is to investigate if england could live of renewable energy.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/

  • JAFO
    JAFO
    our political class is completely incapable of moving us in the necessary directions to move to alternative technologies.

    It wouldn't help if they did.. to have any chance of mitigating what's coming, we needed to have started 20-30 years ago. Now it's too late.

  • JAFO
    JAFO

    Bohm,

    JAFO: First off, imagine you are in the CIA and a guy comes to you and tell you: "Hey, i got this swell plan to help us build a pipelines in afghanistan and help us put more cocain onto the streets of america to create an american world-government (as far as i know, that is what he believes the motive was), all we got to do is kill about 3000 americans and start two very expensive wars in the middle east [question: are the wars really making america stronger?]. If anyone figure it out, we will be shot. we got to buy of people in numerous countries who really hate our guts, and rely that hundreds of men and woman in different agencies keep their mouths shut and for once not fuck up. Are you in our out?".
    For a person to accept that offer, you got to be a really mean, evil, psychopatic son of a bitch. And you know that the hundreds of other people you have never known who got to be in on this have to be equally evil, mean and psychopatic. Well, psychopats are usually out to save their own ass, and all it takes is one who think: "Fuck this, if i tape this, and i go to the NY Times with a recording of my superior telling me this, i will be the hero, get a promotion, and i will run no risk of getting shot at a military tribunal if this is ever figured out". FUTHERMORE i have assumed that most people in the intelligence buisness is willing to kill americans without blinking - actually i think there are very few who will do that. I think the average CIA man is a pretty patriotic dude who really think he is in the job to save american lives, and think the wast conspiracy with cocain and one world government does not exist (so do i).

    This is nothing like the way such things happen, but it would take many pages and much discussion of prior history to explain, and to be honest I doubt I'd convince you anyway.. it's a world which is too alien for you to accept, I suspect. Apart from which, I don't have time right now.. it's almost 11pm here.

    As for Peak Oil and the implications, the link in my post immediately above this one would be a good place for you to begin. Also, see the movie CoLLapse.

  • BurnTheShips
    BurnTheShips

    I recommend the Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler. At the very least, it is an interesting read.

  • bohm
    bohm

    JAFO: Well i sure dont! But logic dictate that the plan has to be hatched somewhere, and eventually you got to go out with it and convince others to play along. Every theory on this subject seem to be different, but i got to assume that it would imply GWB is involved. What about Obama? Do the chief of CIA take him aside on the first day and tell him: "Look, theres one thing i have to tell you, you see, 9/11 was an inside job, we conspired to commit high treason, so its kinda funny, those two unpopular wars we are in, uh, the whole mess you inherited, it was kindof our own doing, and now you got to save our assess because otherwise it would make you the most popular president in history and destroy the repuplican party. And the guy after you - he might not be so inclined, and then its your ass on the line and ron paul is going to be the president in 2017, but thats just your job, Sir!".

    I read your document, and the first graphs predicted the beginning of the end of all things as we know it in 2008. Well, its 2010 now, so so far it looks like eg. the Hirch report is more accurate. Look, we are debating many things here. I disagree with you completely on the 9/11 stuff and there i am very sure. I tend to think that Ruppert is far to pessimestic on what will happend, and i think he is also to pessimistic on when. I am not saying i have any good ideas there, i would just put more trust in Rupperts analysis if it was backed up by a group of economical/political experts.

    A personal question. If you really believe that civilization is going to end in the coming decades, are you stocking guns, gold and food?

  • BurnTheShips
    BurnTheShips

    Bohm is right regarding the CIA/911 conspiracy theories put out by Ruppert. His peak oil stuff is essentially correct (if too pessimistic in my opinion It's not "too late." There are substitutes, and we are improving them. We will innovate our way out, eventually. The interim, however, could be rough. For example, solar panel prices have dropped by more than half in the past year, and are becoming more and more commercially viable without subsidies. These trends will only continue. Copper will be replaced by carbon nanotube wiring, which is more electrically conducive than copper is, and far lighter. These are just two examples. There are too many additional alternatives to list.

  • sacolton
    sacolton

    Time to buy a horse.

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