Arctic Ice to Last Decades Longer Than Thought?

by leavingwt 41 Replies latest social current

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  leavingwt

  National Geographic: Arctic Ice to Last Decades Longer Than Thought?

  This year's cooler-than-expected summer means the Arctic probably won't experience ice-free summers until 2030 or 2040, scientists say.
  
  Some models had previously predicted that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by as soon as 2013, due to rising temperatures from global warming.
  
  However, that scenario required Arctic sea ice to shrink at the record-setting pace of summer 2007, when sea ice coverage dropped to 1.6 million square miles (4.13 million square kilometers), said Walter Meier, a scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
  
  This summer Arctic sea ice shrank to only 1.97 square miles (5.1 million square kilometers). The 2009 drop is still the third largest on record, but it's not as big as some scientists had feared.
  
  Arctic sea ice typically shrinks in the summer and grows in the winter. It typically reaches its lowest coverage around mid-September.
  
  One-Year Reprieve
  
  Meier cautions the new findings do not mean the Arctic is in recovery, or that global warming is slowing down.
  
  "I look at it as a one-year reprieve," he said. "I don't expect that to continue."
  
  For one thing, this year's ice is thinner than in the past, and thus more vulnerable to future melt.
  
  "If we get another really warm summer," Meier said, "we'll probably be back to where we were in 2007."

  http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090921-arctic-sea-ice.html
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  JWoods

  I was going to post again on that thread I made on the book "The Chilling Stars" but kind of lost it after not being able to post for a week or so -

  Some DNS was down for a while that lets me get here.

  Anyway - good news in a way...and probably will be thoroughly trashed by the Global Warming Activists -

  After all, what could National Geographic know on such a subject?
• 

  moshe

  Looks like they omitted the word million after the 1.97, otherwise it makes no sense- 2007 was 1.6 million miles- I notified the Nat-Geographic news editor. This winter will be interesting due to the lack of sunspots this year and last, which could equal a drop in solar output. It is very possible that we will have a bone chilling winter with above average snowfall.
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  villabolo

  leavingwt; I've seen time lapse satellite pictures of the sea ice shrinking from 1979 to 2005.

  www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/earthandsun/climate_change.html

  Second picture from the top. At first the extent of the ice caps is hard to figure out because the pictures are bouncing all over the place but eventually they show decreases although some fluctuations are evident. The shrinkage has temporarily stopped but not the thinning.

  Although we are having cooler summers (probably due to lack of sunspot activity and other details) based on the pattern that you see in the satellite photos listed above it is simply a temporary respite. My personal prediction for the arctic to be ice free in the summer? 10-15 years.

  villabolo
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  JWoods

  50 years is hardly a full cycle trend in geographical terms.

  As an ex-JW I have become very retrospect in making predictions in absense of good scientific evidence.
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  leavingwt

  This is all way over my head.

  Break it down for me.

  Is this good news for the polar bears, if only temporary?
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  JWoods

  I would guess good news. Except that I somehow have the feeling that all those pitiful photos of polar bears on diminishing ice are really just polar bears swimming around from one ice pack to another like they always do.

  Here is the deal: Nat Geo article says that the melt-out over summer would have been 2013 except that it was very cold this year...so that pushes it back to 2030-2040.

  Poster Villabolo proposes that it will be between 10 to 15 years.

  Woods says that this indicates to him that we cannot predict this with any degree of certainty.

  Sunspot cycle is significant because it signifies weaker solar magnetic field - this makes more cosmic rays, which makes more clouds. More clouds make for overall cooler temperatures.

  And nobody really knows what the sun is going to do next either.
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  leavingwt

  OK, sounds like the term, "One-Year Reprieve" is the best summary of the data. Thanks.
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  villabolo

  leavingwt: "Is this good news for the polar bears, if only temporary?"

  Maybe, but remember that the ice is thinning not simply shrinking in surface area. Polar bears weigh a lot and they need a sturdy piece of ice for stability. Also, from the pictures I've seen they're getting pretty thin. We should start putting them in special zoo's to avoid extinction.

  villabolo
• 

  leavingwt

  The Sun Could be Heading into Period of Extended Calm

  http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/40456