by YoYoMama 37 Replies latest jw friends
I just read this in yahoo about the huge economic problems that Argentina is facing: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011219/wl/argentina_economy.html
This is something that You Know said that was going to happen and that it would be the start of future economic downfall all over the world.
Yo,
I would like to give you a new handle:"You Know Mamma"
If someone lived a trillion X longer than you, and had a billion X more reasoning ability would he come to the same conclusions as you?
You Know didn't predict this, he simply reported it as one of the signs that the Global Financial System was about to collapse.
The article linked to says among other things:
At the root of the crisis is a recession triggered by years of public overspending and heavy borrowing that has left Argentina on the brink of defaulting on its staggering $132 billion public debt.
I agree with You Know that debt is basically fake money and that that fake money is piled on top of fiat money which is also fake money since it is only worth what people believe it is worth. Paper dollars are not "worth" anything other than kindling or toilet paper. You Know also argues that derivatives take it a step further and create yet a third layer of fake value. I can't discount his arguments. At some point, something actually has to have a real value of some kind to be worthy of trade for something of real value (ie. a house, food, clothing, metal, services rendered, etc.)
The bottom line to survival is the earth's ecosphere and its limited natural resources. We are clearly straining these. In the end they are the only thing of value. As one exasperated Argentinian in the linked article exclaimed: "We are hungry, we have to eat!". Yup, that's the bottom line. You can't eat dollars or pesos or yen.
Joel
You are right Joel. What the Argentinean people are going through is very scary. I think the problem is that all economic systems are so interrelated, they feed off each other, that one collapse and the whole thing will be in trouble.
The analyses I have read regarding the Argentina crisis is that they may in fact default on their debt which will cause a problem for the Global Economy but not a deep one. $136 Billion is a big number but not a globally disastrous one.
The problem is that countries aren't learning anything by others mistakes. We keep mounting up more and more debt that is not backed by real assets. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that can't go on forever. You Know expects the collapse "any day now". I have said that I expect it within the next 100 to 200 years or so.
There is a natural limit to resources which are the only thing of real value we have. The manmade economy is natural resources + manufactured goods (included agriculturally grown food) + services. This economy has room to grow a lot more. I think we will run out of natural resources before the manmade economy runs out of room to grow.
Joel
Joel,
The best indicator that a resource is scarce is that the price increases. Which natural resources, pray tell, have been increasing in price steadily over, say, the last decades?
Natural resources are surely important. Much more important are human beings, who know how to put them to use.
- Jan
--
"Doctor how can you diagnose someone with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and then act like I had some choice about barging in here right now?" -- As Good As It Gets
JanH,
Off the top of my head I would offer Land and Fish.
I understand your point. However, I would also point out that some natural resources are just simply disappearing completely, so they no longer can be bought or sold at any price.
There are already water wars in the western states of the US. Las Vegas's population has tripled in the last 20 years and water is already become a problem there.
Throw another 2 Billion people on the pile. That's what will happen in the next 150 years.
Joel
I predict there will be a great disaster and financial trouble
somewhere on earth at sometime in the future.
I predict there will be war and disease and famine somewhere,
sometime.
Don't get too excited about Argentina - there have been near
defaults in Latin America across the past century, Furthermore,
Russia had a unilateral default on its debt only a few years
ago - the world muddled thru it.
metatron
The Argentinian government is preparing a major swap of bonds within the next couple of months. It's still not clear how compulsory it's going to be, but it is a technical default anyways. What is also uncertain is if the government will have the money for the payments due in January; most people bet it won't. Be it as it may, the default will not come as a surprise to anyone and the market has been accounting for it for a long time.
Joseph Joachim, an overly-enthusiastic pundit of borderline reality
Joel,
Off the top of my head I would offer Land and Fish.
In some areas, perhaps, but on the whole there has been a long-term declining price on both.
I understand your point. However, I would also point out that some natural resources are just simply disappearing completely, so they no longer can be bought or sold at any price.
For example?
There are already water wars in the western states of the US. Las Vegas's population has tripled in the last 20 years and water is already become a problem there.
Sure, urbanization leads to such problems in some areas. Other areas, like the Middle East, have always been scarce on fresh water, and in political struggles the haves can use their supply power against the havenots.
Throw another 2 Billion people on the pile. That's what will happen in the next 150 years.
The reliable estimates is that the world population will reach its maxiumum in 2050 and start to decline. Personally, I am convinced that the lowering population will be much more of a problem than the increase has been, especially in the western world where the population is already stagnating or declining.
- Jan
--
"Doctor how can you diagnose someone with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and then act like I had some choice about barging in here right now?" -- As Good As It Gets
