Why do we say " I believe in evolution"?

by Anti-Christ 89 Replies latest jw friends

  • Spook
    Spook

    Arguments shifting the burden of proof are rarely, if ever, productive except when very technical. So it's fair to assume that both sides seriously cosidering this question have some burden of proof.

    My comments on the nature of an ad-hoc argument still stand and I will repeat them.

    In science, a theory or modification to a theory is not ad-hoc if the theory or modification proposes some new falsifiable way to be real. In philosophy an argument or rejoinder is not ad-hoc if either evidence or at least some new logically coherent independant argument can be offered in support.

    If you really do reject my assumptions then there can be no recourse because to reject these is to say no theory should be accepted. I lean towards logical empiricism myself but spoke carefully not to fall into the trap of claiming "You should only accept as true what is true by definition objectively true by verification." Why? Because that axiom is self defeating since it is neither objectively true nor is true by definition. I've written five pages so far which I haven't posted and isn't nearly done on the underpinning theories around a single simple evolutionary example. I will continue, complete and post them here if you have some normative (ought/should) based belief about accepting a theory as probably true.

    It is not my fault IF you are too lazy too clearly state your arguments.

    It actually is your fault if you refuse, so as to maintain the maximum possible inscrutability of belief, to give any inclination of productive starting ground - and furthermore refuse to accept or acknowledge the most basic and carefully worded assumptions necessary for meaningful discourse. In essence, you could require the presentation of a composite Theory Of Everything. A probabilistic argument is well beyond the scope of this discussion.

    Again, I really think we should leave the neanderthal example. Your rebuttal was no more specific than mine and is full of just as many holes. We're evidently still talking past each other on that. Yes, of course a past genome would be impossible beyond the maximum shelf life of genetic material. But when preserved, such suffices and has been used before. Agree or disagree? Now, your statement about the makeup of the current genetic range is false according to geneticists. Mine reflected the current consensus opinion that given a genome, a geneticists could accurately say with a stated margin of error if a sample was or was not within the range of modern humans. Either we're talking past each other or you're asking me to prove things which are in the public domain and are only secondarily or tertiarily related to my position.

    You then proceeded to make several claims about the fossil record and expectations about it. This is yet another related topic, but here you make at least one statement that is sufficiently specific for me to actually construct a response to.

    You claim that if evolution were true, we should have found more fossils than we have and that the distribution should look differntly than it does.

    I'd be happy to defend, specifically: The fossil record constitutes evidence which supports the theory of common decent.

    If you first tell me whether you accept the geological column theory and the techtonic plate theory of geology you could save us both a lot of time. If you don't, I'll expect you to say why not - since again these are in the public domain and are only secondarily related to my position. You could add in dating methods to that list while we're at it. And beneath that the theory of radiometric decay, soil sublimation, depository transitions and the compressive production of soil types...the mineral infiltration and replacement of biological bone material...

    There is a logical fallacy called the Burden of Proof fallacy whereby a position is maintained through unrealistically high standards of evidence. Generally when you say there should be more or less of something to constitute evidence this has to either be compared to a quantifiable deficiency, another set of disconfirming observations of the same phenomena, or else there must be some other theory which better fits the data. Otherwise you have no rational reason to expect more. You could want more, but it is irrational to reject a theory because of how much evidence you want. If you disagree with my early assumptions, you probably don't agree to that.

  • Mad Dawg
    Mad Dawg

    In science…

    In chemistry, we talked at length about what we don’t know. We were certain of what we do know because it was observable, testable, and repeatable. What we did not know was not a problem because none of the chemistry was based on what we don’t know. A was based on B, C was unknown. Who cares? But if we state that A is based on B, and B is unknown then we can’t know A.

    If you really do reject my assumptions then there can be no recourse because to reject these is to say no theory should be accepted. I will continue, complete and post them here if you have some normative (ought/should) based belief about accepting a theory as probably true.

    It actually is your fault if you refuse, so as to maintain the maximum possible inscrutability of belief, to give any inclination of productive starting ground…

    QUOTE:

    ‘The history of science shows that a paradigm, once it has achieved the status of acceptance (and is incorporated in textbooks) and regardless of its failures, is declared invalid only when a new paradigm is available to replace it. Nevertheless, in order to make progress in science, it is necessary to clear the decks, so to speak, of failed paradigms. This must be done even if this leaves the decks entirely clear and no paradigms survive. It is a characteristic of the true believer in religion, philosophy and ideology that he must have a set of beliefs, come what may (Hoffer, 1951). Belief in a primeval soup(or evolution)on the grounds that no other paradigm is available is an example of the logical fallacy of the false alternative. In science it is a virtue to acknowledge ignorance. This has been universally the case in the history of science as Kuhn (1970) has discussed in detail. There is no reason that this should be different in the research on the origin of life (evolution).’ (emphasis added)

    Hubert P. Yockey, 1992 (a non-creationist). Information Theory and Molecular Biology, Cambridge University Press, UK, p. 336. statements added.

    What I may, or may not, believe has no bearing on the fact that evolution is built on blind assumptions. I have no obligation to offer an alternative in order to show that the current one is built on sand.

    Again, I really think we should leave the neanderthal example.

    Why, because your slip is showing?

    Your rebuttal was no more specific than mine and is full of just as many holes.

    Name the holes.

    Yes, of course a past genome would be impossible beyond the maximum shelf life of genetic material. But when preserved, such suffices and has been used before. Agree or disagree?

    Are you saying that we have representative samples of Neanderthal’s DNA? If so, what was the sampling plan?

    Now, your statement about the makeup of the current genetic range is false according to geneticists.

    Then whatever geneticist you are referring to needs to go back to school and learn some basic statistics.

    Mine reflected the current consensus opinion that given a genome, a geneticists could accurately say with a stated margin of error if a sample was or was not within the range of modern humans.

    SO WHAT!? Do you have any idea what the difference between a control limit and a spec limit is? You keep talking about irrelevant control limits when the issue is the spec limits for the genomes in question.

    I'd be happy to defend, specifically: The fossil record constitutes evidence which supports the theory of common decent.

    You call that a defense? No it doesn’t. Pffffft!

    If you first tell me whether you accept the geological column theory and the techtonic plate theory of geology you could save us both a lot of time. If you don't, I'll expect you to say why not - since again these are in the public domain and are only secondarily related to my position. You could add in dating methods to that list while we're at it. And beneath that the theory of radiometric decay, soil sublimation, depository transitions and the compressive production of soil types...the mineral infiltration and replacement of biological bone material...

    We can get there eventually, I am in no hurry. From where I sit:

    Ø You stated that the Neanderthal DNA proves or points to or something about evolution.

    Ø You have been entirely unable to provide any known information about the history of the genomes in question.

    There is a logical fallacy called the Burden of Proof fallacy whereby a position is maintained through unrealistically high standards of evidence.

    • Burden Of Proof:

    the claim that whatever has not yet been proved false must be true (or vice versa). Essentially the arguer claims that he should win by default if his opponent can't make a strong enough case.

    There may be three problems here. First, the arguer claims priority, but can he back up that claim? Second, he is impatient with ambiguity, and wants a final answer right away. And third, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

    You really should learn what a particular fallacy is before you go accusing someone of committing it.

    You could want more, but it is irrational to reject a theory because of how much evidence you want.

    You are the one that brought up Mr. Neander. If you claim to know A, it is perfectly reasonable for me to ask, “How do you know that?” “Well I know that A is true because I know that B is true.” But if B is unknown, then you can’t know A, unless there is a legitimate C or D. You talk as if you have established the theory when you have offered zip. B was bunk, where is C or D?

    The ‘information’ you offer about the genome requires specific knowledge about the past. When asked for the basis of this knowledge you offer the following fallacies:

    Ø Appeal To Anonymous Authority: an Appeal To Authority is made, but the authority is not named. For example, "Experts agree that ..", "scientists say .." or even "they say ..". This makes the information impossible to verify, and brings up the very real possibility that the arguer himself doesn't know who the experts are. In that case, he may just be spreading a rumor.

    Ø Appeal To Widespread Belief (Bandwagon Argument, Peer Pressure, Appeal to Common Practice)

    Ø Argument By Generalization: drawing a broad conclusion from a small number of perhaps unrepresentative cases .

  • Spook
    Spook

    OK, the long road it is.

    Your quote regarding the fallacy of the false alternative may apply to this or any theory (i.e. it is logically possible for this to be the case) if and only if you can substantiate your own particular judgement about the evidence for evolution - namely that it is ad-hoc and speculative. Yet until you substantiate a deficiency through at least one of the following...

    (A) Given the theory of evolution we should expect more evidence than we have.

    (B) Some other theory better accounts for the evidence - limited or otherwise - which we have.

    (C) At least some evidence we observe is impossible given the necessary conditions of evolution.

    Then no such fallacy applies.

    I agree the fallacy does apply to how many casual naturalists deal with origin of life theories as your quote correctly referenced, but I obviously disagree with you extrapolating the same judgement to evolution in general. So yes, all my arguments will in some extent begin with the assumption given life... No, this is not about evolution per say anything more than big bang cosmology is about evolution. What I refuse to do is provide you a Theory Of Everything or a complete defense of a natural world view system.

    Unless you can substantiate your own claim, my line of argumentation proceeds as previously stated, namely that we do have that evidence which we would expect to have given the theory. My argument as stated stands free of the fallacy of the false alternative in so far as I can establish the following:

    1. The necessary conditions are met.

    2. The evidence which would be available to empirical investigation, given the theory, can be confirmed.

    3. There is no other theory which can account for the same evidence and can also stand up to critical scrutiny.

    You responded to the following:

    Again, I really think we should leave the neanderthal example.

    Why, because your slip is showing?

    No, because if you consider the original post, directed to someone else you will see that as I have said before this example is intended against an audience advancing an argument wherein the necessary assumptions are shared - specifically biblical literalists who believe in a recent global deluge and Jehovah's Witnesses who claim that significant genetic changes have occured in the last 6000 years. If that applies to you, then by all means let's proceed. If it does not we are both wasting our time and should move on. I wouldn't argue theodicy with a budhist either.

    I would also maintain that unless you can substantiate your own position you are indeed falling into the burden of proof fallacy - but I would prefer we admit we both bear a burden of proof because such assignments are lengthy, technical and not particularly productive. I have teed you up with position that are both easily assailable and clearly defined. The latter clearly being out of scope of the false alternative fallacy.

    You then said in response to my statement:

    I'd be happy to defend, specifically: The fossil record constitutes evidence which supports the theory of common decent.

    You call that a defense? No it doesn’t. Pffffft!

    Of course it doesn't. Maybe we're still talking past eachother here, but I offered this as a position to defend instead of the current tangented and obtuse discussion because at least it is specific and concise. No defense was provided at all, so of course I don't call it a defense. The fossil record in general not having anything to due with the Neanderthal illustration.

    And you proceeded

    If you claim to know A, it is perfectly reasonable for me to ask, “How do you know that?”

    That is why I ask yet again you provide either some basic agreement on the terms of the argument or rise to the burden inherent in your position. If your position will be pure classical skepticism we may as well stop now. You or I could both get anyone on the planet to complete ignorance or a logical fallacy within three questions of "how do you know that?" I am happy to engage in new learning when a gap in my knowledge is uncovered through a debate like this, but I will not let that be an endless one way street against a position of illusionary higher ground. As much as I love a research project I'm not going to write a lengthy position which is discarded out of hand if you indeed have a principled skepticism and a unique position on epistemology. It's fine if you want to question the statistical assumptions of the study - but before answering I'd like to get a sense of how far down the rabbit hole you want to go. HapMaps? SNP's? Somatics? Karyotype? I also want to know if you're going to allow sighting published data. I will not buy hundreds of dollars worth of white papers just to provide a quote. If you won't accept according to (citation), then we're really at a stand still - because it is completely consistant with my position to do so at some reasonable level and still satisfy my burden.

    If I say, for example that two random humans differ in approximately 1 in 1000 nucleotides out of a genome of approximately 3 billion, I'd be happy to provide a reference - but not a breakdown of statistical methodology. For partially contested items I'd be happy to supply a quote in of useful information in addition to a reference. But only for deeply contested items will I actually be willing to reproduce the development of a theory in part or whole.

    So, I said earlier as a purposefully easy target "All the facts of biology support evolution"

    To which "There exists one fact about biology which falsifies or at least weakens evolution" would rebut.

    I will take "Given evolution, we should expect to find more or different fossils than we do" to be a claim you are advancing.

    Hell, if you want to make it truly ridiculous I'll just rest on the following.

    1. A scientific theory has met the burden of proof when it has reached consensus status among a quorum of experts in the field.

    2. Evolution has reached consensus status among a quorum of experts in the field of biology.

    3. Therefore evolution has met the burden of proof.

    "in practice, the mathematician who wishes to satisfy himself of the [correctness] of a proof or theory hardly ever has recourse to one or another of the complete formalisations .. nor even usually to the incomplete and partial formalisations" Theory of Sets Addison-Wesley (1968) p8

  • Mad Dawg
    Mad Dawg

    Please answer these questions:

    1. John drives for one hour at 60 MPH, how far did he drive?
    2. Mike leaves point A with 32,254 miles on the odometer, he arrives at B with 32,494 miles on the odometer. How far did he drive?
    3. Bob drives for 1 ½ hours and arrives at point X with 12,009 on his odometer. How far did he drive?
  • Spook
    Spook

    1. John drives for one hour at 60 MPH, how far did he drive?

    It depends on what you mean. Do you mean how far in straight line adjusted absolute coordinates he is from his original destination? What's the curvature of the surface he's on? Net distance from the starting point?

    1. Mike leaves point A with 32,254 miles on the odometer, he arrives at B with 32,494 miles on the odometer. How far did he drive?

    Assuming the odometer is accurately calibrated for the tire diameter, air pressure, slippage...?

    1. Bob drives for 1 ½ hours and arrives at point X with 12,009 on his odometer. How far did he drive?

    Same answer.

    We're both getting pretty obtuse, I'm going to move the subject to another thread since we're no longer talking about the OP. Please find "On The Evidence For Evolution."

  • Mad Dawg
    Mad Dawg

    It is sad that you can't even answer a simple question. Why the reflexive need to complicate things?

  • quietlyleaving
    quietlyleaving

    Please answer these questions:

    1. John drives for one hour at 60 MPH, how far did he drive?
    2. Mike leaves point A with 32,254 miles on the odometer, he arrives at B with 32,494 miles on the odometer. How far did he drive?
    3. Bob drives for 1 ½ hours and arrives at point X with 12,009 on his odometer. How far did he drive?

    I think question 3 perfectly illustrates your point mad dawg. Imo there is a case to be made for saying "I believe in evolution". of course I'm not claiming to have undertood eveything

  • Mad Dawg
    Mad Dawg

    Thank you, that is all that I have been saying.

  • apocryphal22
    apocryphal22

    I dislike the theory of evolution for the mere fact that so much time, money, research, books and human effort is spent on proving or disproving it. That time would be better spent on more immediate problems like cancer research. Evolution ranks up there with "Big Bang Theory". Is it interresting? Yes. Is it going to solve any problems within my lifetime? Probably not.

  • Mad Dawg
    Mad Dawg

    They have spent hundreds of millions on SETI. The only thing they have found is the microwave oven in the break room.

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