Are They Numbers or Are They People (page 2)

sir82

Don't mean to be pedantic, but numbers are what I "do" for a living....

The average amount of Jehovah's Witnesses in the 2007 Yearbook was 6,491,775. In the 2000 Yearbook, the average number of Jehovah's Witnesses was 5,653,987. That means the average total amount of JW's grew by 837,788. More math you say? Ok.

2,158,465 baptized this period - the actual average growth of 837,788 = 1,320,677 actual people who somehow aren't with the group anymore.

Over 1.3 million people who are no longer active JW's in this decade so far!

1.3 million people "disappeared" over 8 years, and we assume

60,000 per year die.

60,000 per year over 8 years (2000 - 2007) = 480,000 JW deaths. That leaves around 800,000 unexplained "disappearances" over 8 years, about 100,000 per year, comprised of DFs and faders.

100,000 JWs are leaving the organization by some means other than death (DF, fade) each year, compared to ~260,000 baptized per year. So for every 5 people coming in the front door, roughly 2 leave out the back door.

All of this assumes, of course, that the numbers published are accurate.

AllTimeJeff

Don't mean to be pedantic, but numbers are what I "do" for a living....

No problem, I get anally retentive, which is another word for pedantic.

In all seriousness, I did my number crunching around midnight last night. (zzzzzz) Did I present the numbers inaccurately?

leavingwt

Please remind us of the URL for your blog.

AllTimeJeff

http://antidotesuperstition.blogspot.com/

I also will be blogging on the new freeminds when it goes live.

OUTLAW

AllTimeJeff..Thats an incredible story..Sad.............................1 in 3 JW`s`s are disfellowshiped................2/3rds of Born in JW`s walk away..............I believe the numbers leaving the JW`s,are probably much higher.......................

Clint Eastwood ...OUTLAW

wobble

I did a similar analysis of the British "field" and came up with similar statistics. (being very conservative with my estimate 12,500 are "missing" over ten years.)

When you think that those ones leaving were active,baptised "tasters" of the "Spiitual paradise",who once believed it was the truth,if it were anything CLOSE to the "Truth" it would be inexplicable that such numbers were walking away!

And yet dumbdubs just shrug their shoulders and carry on,it never makes them think, WHY?

Love

Wobble

Quirky1

I'm trying to remember and I may be wrong, but isn't this the fudge factor that Ray Franz was discussing in CofC?

slimboyfat

If it is true around 80,000 are disfellowshipped each year, (and it seems reasonable since the number was given as 40,000 in the early 80s) as attribted to Jack Barr, then that only leaves 20,000 faders and inactive walk-aways each year. If the 60,000 deaths is an underestimate that would drive the figure even lower. That seems very low actually.

So the figures for the past 8 years on average look like.

+ 260,000 baptised

- 60,000 died

- 80,000 disfellowshipped

- 20,000 faders

= net increase of 100,000

Of course a complicating issue is the fact that some unbaptised publishers never get baptised, they just drift away before baptism. Who knows how many there may be like that? There is no way to tell as far as I am aware. This makes a exact estimate of the number of faders impossible, but would tend to suggest (I think) that they may be higher in number than the baptism count compared to publisher increases alone would suggest.

sir82

SBF,

Don't forget to factor in returning DFs to the equation. I have no idea at all how many return, but just for grins, let's say 1/2 of them do. If that is the case, then your equation changes to:

+ 260,000 baptised
- 60,000 died
- 80,000 disfellowshipped
+ 40,000 returning DFs
- 60,000 faders
= net increase of 100,000

Who knows if the "1/2" is accurate or not - but whatever it is, it does allow for a higher number of faders.

AllTimeJeff

Good point sir82. As an aside, I highly doubt half come back. Maybe 1/3 of the number?

Are They Numbers or Are They People

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