Neverendingjourney: Here's the option I'd bet on:
tighten the reigns, have a great purge, and continue as a smaller, cultish religion
I tend to agree with you, Gopher. Everything I've heard about the new GB members seems to suggest that they are even more hardline that the old schoolers, except maybe Jaracz, the boss, himself. The Bethel culture seems to lead to the advancement of hardcore company men who have given their lives to advance JW dogma. If that's true, I don't see why they would decide to change course, even if membership starts to go down.