Global warming and scientists.

by Forscher 82 Replies latest members politics

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    Not from recorded temperature measurements. What difference would it make, if any, how far back you go? If there is an ACTUAL direct correlation between the two phenomenon, should you ever reach a point within the past 4.5 million years when the two diverge? The answer is an obvious one. What makes data 200,000 years old reliable and data 4.5 million years old unreliable? Wishful thinking? Certainty of position? What?

    4.5 million years ago - was our planet's biosphere and atmosphere even the same biochemical beast back then as it is now? I ask you, because I don't know - but my guess is that it wasn't. And if it wasn't, then of course data from the past 200,000 years is more relevant.

    And if carbon concentrations were at comparatively high levels 4.5 million years ago and temperatures were cooler then they are now, the question begs to be asked - was there still a localized (in regards to time) correlation between C02 levels and temperatures during that period? Like say if you were to create a similar chart to the one I posted previously that covered 4.5 to 4.7 million years ago, broken down into say, 1000 year increments, would it show a similar correlation?

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    Oh, no! I'm not saying that it is not accurate, as far as it goes. I am saying that considering the complexity of the issue under discussion it is severely wanting in its lack of complexity.

    I just level the same criticism against it that a responder leveled against Limbaugh. I agree with the criticism against Limbaugh, but believe it would demonstrate incredibly unjustified bias on my part if I did not also see its application to that chart. Let me see if I can quote the criticism directly:

    But the very fact that Limbaugh chooses to ignore all the complexity, and to attribute the change in our climate to a single cause, and to imply in fact that it is a "no-brainer"...shows that he's not interested in the truth of the matter, only in the big lie most convenient to his position.

    I think this criticism says it best. Just substitute Limbaugh's name for anyone who limits their discussion to include only their favorite cause. Thus, my agnostic position.

    Also, I am having trouble finding any credible source for the claim that Dr. Hansen is the chief climate scientist for NASA. He is the Director of Research for the GISS. But supposing that I personally view him as reputable, and that I consider his viewpoint to have merit due to his credentials and lack of personal gain from his findings, I'd say we are currently one for one. Where is the rest of this overwhelming majority?

    I am not asking for only one name. I want the names. I don't care about the 99 out of 100 people that would hypothetically disagree with me and could hypothetically show me why. My father used that ploy far too often for it to have any impact. I want to know WHO is this nameless majority that is cited with near constancy. If you don't know who they are, and you agree with their viewpoint without knowing their qualifications for rendering an opinion, you have been successfully marketed, not convinced.

    If it is true, it doesn't need mass marketing.

    Lastly, I ask, which came first, the chicken or the egg? Since the solar activity chart matches the 200,000 year CO2 chart also, and since we cannot directly point to any causal factors to account for the increased CO2 in each spike, do we know which comes first? Well, one simple intuition says to me that the sun influences the earth to a greater degree than the earth influences the sun. Do you agree? Then with that in mind, look at the chart again and consider that the activity of the sun ALSO follows that charted path.

    I would say that is a simple and compelling argument for not ruling the sun out as causation for natural increases and declines in CO2 concentrations.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    Oh, no! I'm not saying that it is not accurate, as far as it goes

    Then are you retracting your previous statement about there being "no correlation whatsoever "?

    that I consider his viewpoint to have merit due to his credentials and lack of personal gain from his findings, I'd say we are currently one for one. Where is the rest of this overwhelming majority?

    You keep moving the target man! Goodness!

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul
    Like say if you were to create a similar chart to the one I posted previously that covered 4.5 to 4.7 million years ago, broken down into say, 1000 year increments, would it show a similar correlation?

    Radically divergent, actually. There are long term spikes in temperature over quite lengthy periods of very low CO2 concentrations and ice ages during the some of the highest CO2 levels, at much higher levels than are predicted for 2100 using the current model parameters.

    The public has to search for this information, it is not published in general media outlets. This data does not fit the favorite singular cause of the consensus. But it is real, nonetheless.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan

    Can you provide us with a chart that shows this alleged inverse relationship within a localized time period? I'm speaking of a span of say, 100,000 years in length, from a distant time period such as the one Dr. Patterson speaks of.

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    Again, I stress that Dr. Patterson's work using much longer periods than 200,000 years led him to find no correlation over the long term between CO2 levels and surface temperature. You and SixofNine seem keep inferring that as a conclusion I reached independently and keep coupling that with your chart from 200,000 years. Let me put that sentence snippet you both keep harping on back into its original context for the sake of the readers:

    Dr. Pattersons work demonstrates that historically (over the course of many millennia) the sun's activity shows a direct correlation to the earth's temperature shifts, whereas historically concentrations of greenhouse gasses shows no correlation whatsoever to global temperature shifts. And he has nothing to gain or lose by the outcome of his findings.

    I commented on what Dr. Patterson's work demonstrated, not my personal viewpoints. I am an agnostic on this issue. By the way, Dr. Patterson's work is not geared toward or away from this conclusion in any way. He is funded by Canada. There is a consistent pattern that holds true over the entire course of 4.5 million years, a direct correlation between the sun and earth's surface temperature.

    I would say this argues strongly for not assuming that ghgs are the cause of global warming simply because recent correlations can be established between ONE ghg and surface temperatures, especially since climatologists specifically cut off their tracking of correlation before it becomes aberrant and only use the ONE (singular) ghg from the accused group of ghgs that shows a correlative pattern over that period of time.

    It doesn't seem to bother such devoted scientists that there is direct contradiction of their conclusions within the preceding 100,000 years. For some reason, only the period which proves their point is relevant to them. Which seems very like what I first accused modelers of doing, projecting personal bias into the data to in order to affect the conclusions.

    As to my shifting requests:

    I will need to ask for your help. Either research the methodology of your favorite GW expert to determine whether they consider "historic" to be 100-200 years, or whether they consider "historic" in terms of geologic climate to span much longer time frame.

    I started out complaining that this invisible majority needs a face I can relate to and a bio I can examine. Am I to take from your recent post that Dr. Hansen is your GW expert "pony" that you have chosen to ride? If so, how do you explain his personal comments on what his job entails? I don't know how it can be fair criticism that I am poisoning the well by quoting what he wrote about his job.

    The hardest part is trying to influence the nature of the measurements obtained, so that the key information can be obtained.

    Please explain your favorite expert's meaning in your interpretation. I took a stab at it, it is only fair that you be allowed to explain a different way of viewing it. But accusing me of poisoning the well is a little much, given that I linked to what he said about himself on the NASA Web site, while you linked to a Wikipedia article written by God only knows who.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul
    Can you provide us with a chart that shows this alleged inverse relationship within a localized time period? I'm speaking of a span of say, 100,000 years in length, from a distant time period such as the one Dr. Patterson speaks of.

    If there is one on the Web, I am not aware of it. I will look for it, though.

    Meantime, do you mind explaining the significance of finding or not finding charts of the inverse relationship within localized time periods, or provide another example that you might have readily to hand of why this could potentially create a problem for correlative trend recognition in statistical data sets?

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    Meantime, do you mind explaining the significance of finding or not finding charts of the inverse relationship within localized time periods,

    If there is a consistent positive correlation between C02 levels and temperatures within localized time frames, then Dr. Patterson's claims of there being "no correlation whatsoever" falls apart completely.

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    I'm sorry, maybe I am missing something you are trying to communicate...if there are long spans of greatly elevated temperatures charted during which there are equivalent long spans of greatly diminished CO2 levels charted, isn't that a lack of correlation between surface temperature and CO2 during those periods?

    Still looking for the chart. I seem to recall that someone posted a similar chart here recently. If I recall correctly, the axis on that chart was split up at 100,000 year increments and included the plotted data for a number of ghgs, not just CO2.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    I'm sorry, maybe I am missing something you are trying to communicate...if there are long spans of greatly elevated temperatures charted during which there are equivalent long spans of greatly diminished CO2 levels charted, isn't that a lack of correlation between surface temperature and CO2 during those periods?

    I'll wait for the chart before answering this.

Share this

Google+
Pinterest
Reddit