Global warming and scientists.

by Forscher 82 Replies latest members politics

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    As I said, if you dig...

    Mitchell K. Hobish, Ph.D

    Dr. Hobish has been self-employed as a consultant for over 19 years. He earned his doctorate in biochemistry at The Johns Hopkins University. He has undergraduate degrees in English (minor in electrical engineering), and biology. His career arc has provided him with a unique set of experiences and expertise in space, Earth, and life sciences and their supporting technologies and organizations. This enables him to communicate skillfully with---and on behalf of---a wide range of clients, including businesses of all sizes, academia, and state, federal, and international agencies. Dr. Hobish will work with you to help you reach your goals by performing technical work and by providing oversight and management for complex, team-based projects.

    http://www.sciential.com/founder.html

    His "arc" isn't actually defined very clearly anywhere. I wonder why a biochemist, with an undergrad in English (minor in electrical engineering), and biology is the writer of that entire work you linked a picture from, Dan. Another noteworthy bit from his Website:

    Technical communications of all kinds, from simple press releases to complex documents, are necessary to convey your organization's message, to share new data and knowledge, and to attract funding. Sciential will help you to deliver your message clearly and effectively.

    Yes siree, that is the kind of dedication to the science that I look for in my climatology experts. Basically, he claims to be a spin doctor for scientists. He sells his services as such. I am looking for a reputable climatologist whose view you agree with.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul
    SixofNine: Auldsoul, one would almost get the idea from reading your post that you don't believe that ghg's effects warm the earth. Is that true?

    I would say my position is more of an agnostic one, rather than a disbelief. I think there was considerable haste reaching the conclusions, enormous outlay of funds to support the conclusions that were hastily reached, and while the conclusions leapt to may be accurate I do not believe there is enough evidence yet presented by reputable experts in the field under discussion to reach those conclusions even today.

    I do not believe there is significant proof that ghg's are the primary cause of global warming. And I don't hold this position because of any wastefulness of fossil fuels on my part, or because of my political affinity. I hold this position because I have every reason to be extremely skeptical of any information that has to be mass marketed to both the scientific community and the public.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    Turd Burgler,

    So many of the Bush supporters have now admitted, "Doh! I was wrong. My bad. So sorry." Well guess what? You were wrong about Bush. You are wrong about global warming not being casued by human activity. We can't afford you being stupid and wrong about the environment.

    I wasn't wrong about Bush. I still am not wrong about Bush. He lied as Governor when he said we needed to shift attention away from nation building and focus on building up and shoring up our own nation, within its borders. He lied as President when he said he knew where the WMD of Saddam Hussein was hiding. He lied when he said we would leave no child behind (it isn't even possible).

    In my personal opinion, just from an air quality perspective, he lied when he called an SUV a light truck.

    He didn't lie about Global Warming, though. We do not know enough to know for sure what approach to take. And anything that we undertake to the tune of billions of investment dollars only makes sense if we are absolutely sure it will work. Like...going to war against Iraq—it didn't work.

    From the Web site you linked to:

    The earth is warming . Temperatures at the Earth's surface increased by an estimated 1.4°F (0.8°C) between 1900 and 2005. The past decade was the hottest of the past 150 years and perhaps the past millennium. The hottest 22 years on record have occurred since 1980, and 2005 was the hottest on record.

    While this is true within the past 150 years, where this leaves science and becomes sales pitch is the point at which it says "and perhaps the past millennia." Being an ex-JW I know how to spot such "conjecture as proof" constructs and quite properly suspect the source of trying to convince to believe something that is without basis.

    From the PDF you linked to:

    A variety of factors determine the rate and magnitude of climate change, including the emissions of greenhouse and aerosol-producing gases, the carbon cycle, the oceans, biosphere, and clouds. As our understanding in each of these areas evolves, it is important that researchers, policy-makers, the press, and the public be kept informed since these developments affect our understanding of the seriousness and complexity of this issue.

    Our SUN, which is so widely recognized as the preeminent cause of climate change on earth that 2nd grade science text books tout it as such without qualification, is not even mentioned. I doubt any climatologist would cite any other factor as more influential to the temperature of earth than is Sol. However, the PDF to which you linked treats solar activity as a relative constant which is provably is not.

    Also from the PDF:

    If central estimates of model parameters are used, global-mean warming from 1990 to 2100 ranges from 1.9°C to 2.9°C. Sea-level rise estimates over the same period range from 46 to 58 cm.

    True enough, the PDF did not emphasize the "if", but I felt it was very important to demonstrate that it is an incredibly HUGE if. It isn't a small if. And on the basis of this fantastical world that ignores the sun almost entirely we should throw ourselves into the rigorous exercise of emissions reduction on all fronts no matter the cost. I say they almost entirely ignored the sun. They ignored it except to admit that it provides a presumably constant and steady degree of radiation to earth, of which the earth retains a portion depending on the makeup of its atmospehere.

    This imaginary view of the way the sun works is patently unscientific in its simplicity, especially when considering the degree of economic committment required to alter current emissions quickly as opposed to over the course of some years, and even decades.

    When I am reading something that purports to be scientifically sound and it quickly pulls a Creation book scenario out of its arse, I am rightly suspicious from that point forward. I view things that are left unstated as facts that were more comfortably ignored, facts that were inconvenient for the hoped for conclusions. After all, it isn't a lie if it is for their own good, right? I am skeptical like that because I was a JW.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    His "arc" isn't actually defined very clearly anywhere. I wonder why a biochemist, with an undergrad in English (minor in electrical engineering), and biology is the writer of that entire work you linked a picture from, Dan.

    I don't even think he is the author of the chart, as it turned up on a few websites, including NASAs, I just chose that particular site to link from. There were many other similar charts I found, all of which indicated positive correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures over the past 100,000-200,000 years. Do you think the chart is inaccurate? I'm not stating that correlation equals causation, but to deny that even a correlation exists as you did previously in this thread, I'm just amazed at that.

    I am looking for a reputable climatologist whose view you agree with.

    You can read about Dr. James Hansen who is NASA's lead climate scientist, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    DanTheMan,

    The chart looks eerily similar to the one for the sun as a causative factor over a MUCH longer period, in fact, covering several periods where there is no correlation whatsoever between CO2 and temperature.

    More on Hansen's background: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html

    He is a modeler. In my opinion, this is a key quote from his NASA biography:

    The hardest part is trying to influence the nature of the measurements obtained, so that the key information can be obtained.

    "Influenc[ing] the nature of measurements obtained" strikes me as suspiciously like what I accused modelers of doing to begin with. Applying bias to affect the outcome in favor of the result they personally were prejudiced toward to begin with. "Key information" seems to be euphemistic for "confirmation of my bias."

    Another key quote:

    Since then [1967], it only took me a decade or so to realize that the most exciting planetary research involves trying to understand the climate change on earth that will result from anthropogenic changes of the atmospheric composition.

    So, he started out his climate research with the bias that anthropogenic changes have a direct impact on atmospheric composition (which is true) and was an early adopter of the ozone depleting CFCs scare, which is also based on junk science and modeling that was bought and paid for. He adopted the modeling on CFCs before he had any experience as a climatologist. That was what he "cut his teeth" on.

    I would love to know who did author the chart. If you can come up with a name, I would appreciate the assist in my research on the leaders in the field of Global Warming causation.

    It so happens that climatologist are starting to realize that the period during which our recorded measurements of all sorts of meterological data began to get more structured, precise, and representative of much more of the earth's actual surface area (1920s-1960s) was also the terminus of an uncharacteristically docile period in the planet's climatological history. Means established during this period are not reflective of normal volatility and are likely responsible for our choices in construction styles, among other things.

    I also read quotes in news sources like:

    Dr Bill Burrows, a climatologist and a member of the Royal Meteorological Society, welcomed Dr Solanki's research. "While the established view remains that the sun cannot be responsible for all the climate changes we have seen in the past 50 years or so, this study is certainly significant," he said.
    "It shows that there is enough happening on the solar front to merit further research. Perhaps we are devoting too many resources to correcting human effects on the climate without being sure that we are the major contributor."

    and:

    Dr Gareth Jones, a climate researcher at the Met Office, said that Dr Solanki's findings were inconclusive because the study had not incorporated other potential climate change factors.
    "The Sun's radiance may well have an impact on climate change but it needs to be looked at in conjunction with other factors such as greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcano activity," he said. The research adds weight to the views of David Bellamy, the conservationist. "Global warming - at least the modern nightmare version - is a myth," he said. "I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not.
    "Instead, they have an unshakeable faith in what has, unfortunately, become one of the central credos of the environmental movement: humans burn fossil fuels, which release increased levels of carbon dioxide - the principal so-called greenhouse gas - into the atmosphere, causing the atmosphere to heat up. They say this is global warming: I say this is poppycock."

    I am trying to find biographies for each of these climatologists. But there seems to be a trending away from CO2 as primary cause, or at least a willingness to admit we got it wrong one the degree of impact CO2 is having.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • SixofNine
    SixofNine

    "But there seems to be a trending away from CO2 as primary cause,"

    Does your dishonesty know no bounds, sir?

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    Thanks for the factual dispute, there SixofNine . I also appreciate the unfounded allegation of dishonesty.

    "Global warming - at least the modern nightmare version - is a myth," he said. "I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists." — Dr. Gareth Jones

    I will assume your question is directed to Dr. Gareth Jones, since I had just quoted him (as a climatologist) as supporting my conclusion that there is a "trending away" from CO2 as primary cause. If CO2 is primary cause, the nightmare version is very real. If you would like to demonstrate why you believe that my personal conclusion that there "seems" to be a trending away from CO2 as primary cause is dishonesty on my part, feel free. But that might cause you to have to post more than a "sound bite," I wonder if you are up to it.

    I invite you to address the issue under discussion however you like, but further unwarranted attacks on my character may lead to your posting limit being cut short as it is in direct conflict with the rules of this forum. I do not brook ad hominem in debates, there is no room for it and it muddies the waters. It also reflects poorly on the person who uses it and I wouldn't want inadvertent harm to come to your reputation by your own hand.

    AuldSoul

  • SixofNine
    SixofNine


    Your first and most reprehensible dishonesty, AuldSoul, is representing yourself as some sort of up-to-the-minute expert on global warming in this forum.

    You are no such thing. I knew something was off, a few months ago when we first began discussing global warming on the forum, It seemed unlikely that there really was a person with as much implied knowledge and expertise as yourself on a forum of ex Jehovah's Witnesses. Still, I had done only cursory investigation myself, so I couldn't really call you on your bluff.

    There was a time when scientist said, essentially "I'm not convinced, let's get more data, and let's study that data in more sophisticated ways". And scientist have been doing just that for many years now. Some scientist may still be saying the same thing, but as that data has come in, the TREND has been in one direction only, and that is towards a conclusion that anthropogenic ghg's are contributing to global warming.

    Now, as for your picking and choosing of scientist, perhaps you think you're being honest, but it's pretty clear that your primary reason for being impressed with a scientist is how closely that scientist belief matches your own preconceptions. Before you deign to highlight/sacrement the word "climatologist" again, please note the highlighted portion of the letter I recently came across:

    Weart replies: A notable feature of climate science is that most of its issues, unlike most questions in physics, involve evidence and arguments that are scattered among many specialties. People in one specialty are rarely familiar with the details of evidence from another, and the public grasps still less. A letter in this space of a few centimeters must miss a lot, and both letter writers are correct that I failed to go into details of serious concern—for example, I mentioned carbon isotopes only in passing. I thank Edouard Bard for rightly pointing out that the Suess effect was historically the most important demonstration that human activity is rapidly adding CO 2 to the atmosphere. His letter offers this and other good ways to answer some questions raised by uninformed people who can grasp physics arguments.

    George Smith's concerns are among many issues in the study of sea-level rise, a subject that scientists have discussed for half a century without reaching consensus on all points. Still, nearly all students of the topic have come to agree that the rise in the next couple of centuries will almost certainly be greater than zero, with a significant component due to thermal expansion; the expansion, in fact, is the surest thing in the whole business. Experts have also long agreed, as Smith rightly says, that the main Antarctic ice dome will not play a significant role in the next few centuries. Still under discussion is a possible large component of future sea-level rise caused by the slow collapse of other ice sheets—West Antarctica and Greenland. In the last five years, new field evidence has caused some experts to change their opinion of such a collapse from "highly unlikely, scarcely worth worrying about," to "possible, worth seriously worrying about." (For history and references, see http://www.aip.org/history/climate/floods.htm, end of page.)

    Certainly on a subject in which every average joe who weighs in is quoting or paraphrasing, basically arguing-from-authority, it is worth noting that not everyone with a doctorate in just any discipline should have a voice. The problem with you, AuldSoul, is that you don't seem to be an honest broker in figuring out which scientist should have a voice.

    I'd like you to think about something AuldSoul. I'd like you to ask yourself if you have made profound changes in the way you argue or advocate for your own beliefs since leaving the JW organization? I ask this, because I see you as a person who can easily mislead people by your use of language, perhaps while being quite sincere in yourself. You said you'd brought people into the organization, and I find that fascinating.

  • SixofNine
    SixofNine

    edit: dupe

  • SixofNine
    SixofNine

    AuldSoul, considering the foregoing and the following, would it be accurate to say that your style and degree of honesty, when it comes to putting forth your own beliefs, more or less mirrors that of Rush Limbaugh? If not, would you say your standards are higher, or lower?

    Mr. Orwell, Meet Mr. Limbaugh. Mr. Limbaugh, meet--Oh! You've Already Met

    People far more famous than I have called Rush Limbaugh a big fat liar, but what shocks me is not just the fact that he shades the truth, or that he blames the Clintons for everything under the sun, or even that he misleads. Everyone has a point of view, and everyone is going to frame an issue in his or her way, but few people calculate their lies as thoroughly as does Limbaugh. At least when it comes to climate, his are big lies, in the classic Orwellian sense.

    An example from a couple of weeks ago, courtesy of Media Matters. Here's what he said on his radio broadcast on September 21st:

    LIMBAUGH: A story from the UK Telegraph today: "The Truth About Global Warming.

    Global warming has finally been explained: the earth is getting hotter because the sun is burning more brightly than at any time during the past 1,000 years, according to new research.

    "A study by Swiss and German scientists suggests that increasing radiation from the sun is responsible for recent global climate changes. "

    Dr. Sami Solanki, Director of the renowned Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, who led the research, said, 'The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures.' "

    Has to be the case, because there's global warming on Mars.

    All this came from an article in the United Kingdom's Telegraph. Limbaugh falsely claimed it was published the morning he read the opening sentences, but otherwise quoted it accurately. But what he didn't say was what Solanki went on to say:

    He says that the increased solar brightness over the past 20 years has not been enough to cause the observed climate changes but believes that the impact of more intense sunshine on the ozone layer and on cloud cover could be affecting the climate more than the sunlight itself.

    The article then quoted three other researchers who made similar points. Bill Burrows, a climatologist and member of the Royal Metereological Society, who said the matter deserves further study; David Viner; who said that the effects of deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels had come to dominate natural factors over the last twenty years; and Gareth Jones, who criticized the study for not taking into account greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and volcano activity.

    Further, the Max Planck Institute, the research organization for which Solanki works, went on to specifically refute his interpretation a month later in a press release:

    These scientific results therefore bring the influence of the Sun on the terrestrial climate, and in particular its contribution to the global warming of the 20th century, into the forefront of current interest. However, researchers at the MPS have shown that the Sun can be responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the last 20-30 years. They took the measured and calculated variations in the solar brightness over the last 150 years and compared them to the temperature of the Earth. Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for roughly the first 120 years, the Earth's temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time.

    Now, it's true that these are complex questions, and, as the above discussion indicates, attributing cause and effect when it comes to a change in the global climate is never going to be a "no-brainer." But the very fact that Limbaugh chooses to ignore all the complexity, and to attribute the change in our climate to a single cause, and to imply in fact that it is a "no-brainer"...shows that he's not interested in the truth of the matter, only in the big lie most convenient to his position.

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