Number crunching - the impact of the net

by Lady Lee 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Lady Lee
    Lady Lee

    Yesterday I noticed that there were at least 3 newbies who signed up and posted. Almost every day we have at least 1 new person sign up and post. That of course doesn't include those who sign up and don't post.

    I've read numbers that stated it took so many hours of witnessing to make 1 baptized JW. And I know I've also seen how many people were baptized.

    Now, it seems to me that we are having an impact that is pretty good considering we don't do anything to "get" new people to post here. They come on their own.

    Does anyone like crunching the numbers?

    It sure would add to the fear the WTS has regarding the internet.

  • JH

    I also noticed that many newbies have joined and are posting good threads.

  • misspeaches

    Agreed. New blood always makes an impact. Adds to the diversity. I expect that the numbers will begin to increase a lot more yet.

  • Muffinman

    Yay for newbies!

  • jwfacts

    In Cristian Freedom it stated (off the top of my head in round figures) that in the 1960's there was one baptism for every 1500 hours of preaching. in the 1980's it was 1 baptism for every 3000 hours. This year it was 1:5161 hours.

    The stats are really worse than that because so many have left that the overall increase was very minor. The average pubs increased by only 81000 despite 247000 being baptised. That means that 1.28 billion hours spent witnessing resulted in an increase of only 81k people overall, or ....wait for it ...
    15,800 hours witnessing for 1 publisher increase
    OR 131 average publisher years per increase in pub.
    What an incredible waste of time. If less time was wasted doorknocking and more time spent helping others in the congregations the growth could possibly be better.

    The internet is having a great effect. YEH

    Do you think the JWs can get over 7 million average publishers, or will the drop off be greater than the increase before it gets to that number?

  • Lady Lee
    Lady Lee
    Do you think the JWs can get over 7 million average publishers, or will the drop off be greater than the increase before it gets to that number?

    Hey at the rate we (and other websites) are going we might wind up with more people who have left than than are going in.

    Thanks for those numbers. It seems the more they do the less effective it is.

    I've also read quite a few reports that the churches are gaining in their memberships. And they aren't going around knocking on door. I know the church I went to in Montreal was filled to capacity on Sunday mornings. I mean filled - every seat with a body in it. And they had seats for about 300 people. And that didn't include the kids in Sunday school.

    Let's hope they are bleeding leavers more than they are gaining. Certainly what I have seen just here on this one site shows a lot of people are fed up with changes, controls and unfulfilled promises.

    I think you can only dangle the carrot so long before the rabbit looks elsewhere for food (not that the carrot was very nourishing to begin with).

  • Panda

    Thank you for doing the number crunching. It must have the GB concerned ; but hey ya' know the greater number is cooling off, people are makingn their choice and taking their stand --

    I think the internet has helped bunches of JWs leave and find new communities of friends. I wish more of us more mature ex-Jdubs were here but you'd have to figure out that computer internet thing, and then buy one, and then use it ... oh well

    But don't get me wrong I am really glad to see newbies (hooray newbies) I am soooo dang happy that the next generation of JWs is internet transfused and not about to put up with the lies. I wish I had been as smart as they are and never become a dub.

  • garybuss

    I think the number of publishers and the number baptized are not related numbers useful in a year by year growth analysis. I was a publisher at least 5 years BEFORE I was baptized. I could have been a publisher and quit being a publisher and start being a publisher again, all before I was baptized.

    Memorial attendance is an indicator of influence, reporting time one month is an indicator of compliance, and baptism is an indicator of commitment. For me, when I was leaving the group, I went to memorial but I didn't go in service, to meetings, or to conventions. I wasn't committed, I wasn't compliant, but I was influenced. Influence is the first to come, and it's usually the last to go. Because of that, I'd say memorial attendance is more of a temperature gauge than baptisms and number of publishers.

    I do share the feeling that baptisms are more of an indicator of function of service. Function in the respect that service isn't bringing the numbers to a point of baptism. Insiders say the hours on the report are cooked, publisher numbers are cooked, and baptisms are mostly established member's adolescent children. That makes the report interesting, but not very informative. Here in Dakota I'm giving the most weight to the number of cars in the Kingdom Hall parking lot. There's lots of cars in the parking lots on meeting days.

    I'm also giving strength to the financial health of the parent publishing corporation. My only analyses is by observation and I'm seeing lots of money at the top. New buildings, a city size college campus, new apartment buildings in Brooklyn, new printing presses. It looks healthy from the outside from my perspective.

  • riverofdeceit

    the hours spent preaching aren't really accurate. I know I would never put under 5 hours on my report otherwise the elders would get on ya. Do they account for that with a margin of error? Plus, aside from the neurotics (those psychos that only count when they are actually speaking to someone as time), people are rather liberal with how they calculate their time. edit: I just realized that this had very little to do with what people were talking about.

  • Golf

    Yes, and let's treat them kindly and with respect. Maybe someone should this stat to the WTB&TS and we're not even going door to door.


Share this