Japan's statistics - surprising results

by truthseeker 12 Replies latest jw friends

  • truthseeker
    truthseeker

    This years World Wide Report was unremarkable, except for a few things. Britain had a net lost of 2,900 publishers, although the average was down by 500.

    Canada had minimal increase and lost 5 congregations. France actually had a 1% increase. The number of baptisms were down to almost 259,000.

    But the country that most interested me was Japan. Consider how for decades, Japan was held up as a model Witness country to the United States.

    Let's have a look at the sevice report since 1997

    Peak pubs Avg Inc/Dec Baptisms Net loss

    1997 220,663 217,970 4 10,962

    1998 222,912 222,347 2 7,779

    1999 222,857 222,078 0 5,343 5,612

    2000 221,364 220,538 -1 4,388 5,928

    2001 220,113 218,866 -1 4,139 5,811

    2002 218,731 217,791 0 3,925 5,000

    2003 217,508 217,020 0 2,639 3,410

    Japan's baptism rate has dropped by 76% since 1997!

    Now, consider what the January 1st 2004 WT says on page 15 paragraph 12 under the sub heading 'In Foreign Fields'

    Consider Japan. Before the second world war, there were about one hundred Kingdom preachers in that land. During the war, brutal persecution decimated their ranks, and by the end of the war, only a few witnesses were still spiritually and physically alive. Those few outstanding integrity keepers were surely delighted in 1949 to welcome the first 13 Gilead-trained missionaries, and the missionaries quickly warmed to their enthusiastic, hospitable Japanese brothers. Over 50 years later, in the year 2003, Japan reported a peak of 217,508 publishers! Jehovah has indeed richly blessed his people in that land. (Consider that the 1998 peak was 222,912!)

    Reminds me of Orwell's 1984, where the price of chocolate had gone up while the government told the poeple it had come dwon.

  • Room 215
    Room 215

    Very interesting; thanks, truthseeker. Surprised that this hasn't elicted more comment. Some time back on this forum, a mention was made that one very prominent, long-time Japanese elder, had become disaffected, but there was no follow-up that I can recall.

  • TheOldHippie
    TheOldHippie

    Just remember that your "net loss" is something with which you cannot operate, because baptism is not necessary for being a publisher. Average death rate is 1 %, around 1 % is df'ed worldwide, 1 % withdraws, but then you have the "problem children", the unbaptised being publishers for a while, then quitting, then beginning again, the baptised ones doing the same etc.

    This does no way alter the finding of yours, just the "net loss" column is misleading.

    But the model nation has begun to crack. You could see it from 1998, when peak publ. was no higher than average, meaning the growth had stopped, then there could be hopes for a slight improvement in 2002, but it stopped again.

    By the way, a large difference between peak and average can of course mean one of two things; there is either a big growth, or a big decline. Just as the worldwide peak means nothing, because you are lumping together for example France November 2002 in the middle of a big decline, with Russia June 2003 in the middle of a big increase. So the average is what one should compare, as peak means nothing.

  • izobcenec
    izobcenec

    Can someone post report for SLOVENIA?

    Thanx!

  • mineralogist
    mineralogist

    or even better: post a scan of the whole statistic?

  • uriah
    uriah

    Worth remembering that there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

    How many are the 15 min pubs and how many actually did any service as opposed to putting in a fictious hourly report.

    I have on occassion put in a false report, always saying that i would make up the time, but it is like a credit card, you never do

    pay it off and the debt just gets bigger and bigger until in the end it just doesn't matter anymore - no one is going to come round and break your legs and demand payment of hours due to the mob now are they?

    Or is that just litttle old me being cynical.

  • Dansk
    Dansk

    Great news, truthseeker. Always brings joy to my heart when people see sense - and the Japanese have obviously cottoned on to the scam.

    Ian

  • Joker10
    Joker10

    Can you scan the WT Statistics pages for us.?

  • mizpah
    mizpah

    Interesting material... However interpreted....the growth in the organization has slowed. It's a far cry from the time the Watchtower Society boasted about being the "fastest growing religion in the world." I suspect if economic times worsen, the Watchtower Society will realize rapid growth again. The "doom and gloom" message attracts people who have financial and emotional reverses in their lives.

    Like any other organization, the growth usually comes in its "youth." But the Watchtower Society is starting to show its age now. Criticism is wide spread thanks to the inter-net and other bad publicity. And its methods of preaching are becoming antiquated in the more modern countries of the world.

  • metatron
    metatron

    I'm not sure that economic decline would bring back growth. Consider that Japan's economy has been miserable

    for several years and yet, we see this decline there.

    I am most interested in the thought that Witnesses are tuning out the Society's pleas to do more.

    Eventually, everything gets old....

    metatron

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