Before you read anything, you should be aware that I do not know what I am talking about.
It seems clear now that the Watchtower religion has already started to decline, in the Western world at least. How will this decline play out in the future - this is one of the most interesting questions relating to the Watchtower at the moment: Will the Witnesses enjoy a slow leisurely decline over many decades, or can we expect a major split and disintegration in the near future? At the moment we can only speculate, but please indulge me:
I suggest that the Watchtower is about to disintegrate in a manner that even many apostates do not imagine is possible. Let's look at the history of the thing: how have splits happened in the past?
1A. In 1917 when it was not clear who would be in legal control of the publishing agency of the Society there was a major split and Rutherford took the helm by force.
B - Today the governing body are no longer identical to the legal directors of the Watchtower Society (as of 2000 or so). This is bound to cause friction at some point since someone in a powerful position in the legal entity of the Watchtower is bound to want greater control than the governing body at some point down the line - it is human nature.
2A. Whole groups in Africa formed independent "Watchtower" religions early in the 20th century due to the fact that the Society in America lost contact and control over their followers during unsettled times.
B - The Watchtower religion is now so large compared with the organisation that Rutherford had to keep a grip on that overseeing all the Witnesses in the whole world is becoming an increasingly difficult task. At some point Witnesses in various regions, especially in developing countries and in times of trouble, will likely lose contact with Brooklyn and develop irreconcilably distinctive characteristics during their isolation.
3A. In the early 1980s the Ireland branch experienced a major apostasy involving members of the branch committee that is little talked about in the literature. This apostasy, that had to be sorted out by John Barr and others from the governing body, resulted from members of the branch being sympathetic toward Ray Franz during his ousting from the governing body as well as consideration of 'The Gentile Times Reconsidered' thesis.
B - Apostate information is flourishing in 2005 more than ever due to the web. It is hard to believe that some branches and branch members around the world will not be/have already been affected by apostate information and at some stage will seek to effect a break with Brooklyn.
This last point, I feel, is the most important one. It is only a matter of time until some branch committee somewhere in the world starts to assert itself in defiance of Brooklyn. Likely candidates I could suggest would be:
India, Nigeria, the Netherlands and Japan
India because the Society already have strained relations with the branch there.
Nigeria because it is the country with the largest number of Witnesses in an unstable region where locals are beginning to take the reigns of power in the branch.
The Netherlands because they have been in decline in that country for many years and the Dutch always like to rebel and be different.
Japan because they have recently had the shock of no longer being the models of behaviour for all Witnesses everywhere and are now in decline. How will Japanese Witnesses respond to such a turn around? I suspect they will not blame themselves. A study has also shown that Japanese Witnesses also have a very distinctive understanding of the faith that they inherited from their American conquerors. A split is immanent.
As I say, this is all speculative, but I suggest that those who await a slow steady decline in the Watchtower religion may be in for a surprise in the months and years ahead.