Good point room 215. I had not thought of that. If only an extra small percentage started counting bible studies in the family, it would raise the figure considerably. What would be really interesting is, how many studies are just with newly interested ones that are not a part of the JW families
2011 Watchtower publisher statistics with analysis
by jwfacts 220 Replies latest watchtower bible
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steve2
Some posters have made possibly too much of the correlation between the slow, if not stagnant growth in JW statistics in some countries (usually so-called 'Westernized' ones) and higher rates of connectivity to the internet. The assumption they make is that the anti-JW websites are innoculating potential 'interested' people against joining. I think that is too flattering a conclusion about people in these countries. Besides correlation does not mean causation.
Instead, it is much more likely that the relative greater levels of affluence of these countries - including having higher rates of internet access - means that their respective populations are probably less inclined to be interested in the JWs gloomy message. Hence, people are more likely to either not be home when the witnesses call or simply not interested when they do (and being better educated the JWs message is laughably like a children's bedtime story). The opposite scenario is also very likely: poorer countries have larger numbers of the downtrodden and disenfranchised who find the JWs message very compelling. Look at their growth rates in some African and South Amercian countries!
My home country, New Zealand, is a perfect example of affluence-driven indifference: Even as long ago as the 1980s New Zealand witnesses had something of a reputation for being somewhat apathetic or to use the lingo, 'easy going' - simply a dull reflection of the overall populaion of New Zealanders. When I first began to research so-called apostate literature prior to my departure from the organization, even my closest JW friends were 'bored' rather than 'bothered' by my findings. The Watchtower has a significantly greater problem with apathy among the ranks than apostasy. Apathy not apostate-mindsets account for the slowed and stagnant growth rates - a reality that does not depend on the internet(which is not to say that there are some people who do bother to do the research - but they are not as plentiful).
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jgnat
Well, if affluence has a depressive effect and poverty a positive one, we should see growth. There is a world-wide economic downturn right now.
I noticed in the "number of hours preached" per convert took a dip in 2001, the same time as the 9/11 bombing. Social instability and the fear factor is there as well.
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DesirousOfChange
I was reviewing the past number of partakers as provided by Atlantis several years ago, and linked in this string above:
How would anyone explain the jump from 1945 to 1946 of 10,500 to over 25,000?
I wasn't around The Truth (TM) back then to know what was happening. Matter of fact, I wasn't around back then.
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jwfacts
DesirousOfChange - How would anyone explain the jump from 1945 to 1946 of 10,500 to over 25,000?
During the early 1940's the figures were just for partakers in the US. Possibly there were difficulties getting statistics during WW2.
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steve2
Well, if affluence has a depressive effect and poverty a positive one, we should see growth. There is a world-wide economic downturn right now.
Yes jgnat: Affluence and its opposite, poverty, are pretty good predictors of religious devotion. Another relevant factor is people's educational levels; that is, a downturned economy may lead lapsed JWs back to their kingdom halls but the more general non-witness population may have higher overall educational levels so will be able to easily resist the 'good news' nonsense peddled by the witnesses. I think that events such as 9/11 would have greater revival impact on lapsed believers in many religions as apparently there was an upswing in attendances at churches and temples throughout the States in the immediate months following 9/11. As with all this kind of panic-inducing stuff, give the frightened rabbits a few months and they venture outdoors again.
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metatron
An increase in publishers? or an increase in the claim of being publishers?
An increase in hours? or an increase in the claim of putting in time?
Looking at the cash flow and hours spent per baptism average, I think we need to consider that something is wrong with these numbers.
It isn't that the Society is outrightly faking the numbers, it is that Witnesses themselves are drifting into fakery and producing the numbers requested.
These are the same people who zealously attend the C.O.'s visit and then become scarce the following week. It's about the appearance, the facade. They learn how to play the game. Witness kids sometimes learn better than parents.
metatron
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Joker10
JW Facts, it is difficult to straight out belive your analysis.
You don't mention that JWs had one of the highest retention rates they've had in a long time. Some 18,000 of 7.6 million dropped out but a good number could have simply become inactive.
And South Korea, the most wired country in the world, has yet to experience zero or negative increase in publishers. You don't make mention of it in any of your statistical 'analysis' here, or on your site.
Although you can say it required 6,488 hours for a single baptism, you also omit how JWs usually preach in pairs. So that alone cuts the amount of time an interested person actually studies or listens to JWs in half. And what about the amount of time it is spend just walking to reach Not-at-homes?
"The United States claims 3% growth. This is rounded up and the actual figure is 2.68%. However, the Watchtower report has adjusted the population of the US and the ratio of "JWs to the US population" actually fell from 1:259 last year to 1:261 this year."
The population of the United States could not have increased that much in 12 months. The new number most likely reflects the 2010 census, a number that they did not have last year.
You want people to respect your analysis? Give credit and stop sensationalizing.
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snare&racket
I can see them not giving out memorial partakers stats soon, stating : it is not important.
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snare&racket
Also, now they have stopped one of the meetings (book study) they encourage family bible (wt) study more... this makes sense. The book study increases stats, the book study didnt do crap. Just made summer holidays frustrating.