WTBTS membership count prediction

by Skimmer 19 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Skimmer

  Some thoughts on statistical projections of the WTBTS membership count:

  1) Extrapolation (projection beyond known statistics) is hazardous for any measurement that does not derive from a simple model. An accurate model of the WTBTS membership count would have to include demographics for each of the countries, and this would have to combine population age distribution data, educational attainment data, economic data, current WTBTS coverage, and (of course!) Internet access availability data.

  2) Some countries are easier to model than are others. Countries in westerns and northern Europe are all relatively stable, wealthy, highly educated, and have (for the most part) homogeneous populations with a fairly constant age distribution. The trends in these countries are obvious (multiple consecutive years of baptism declines), and so are relatively easy to predict.

  3) Some countries are much harder to model. These are those like the former republics of the Soviet Union where the WTBTS influence is new to many of the inhabitants and the cultural acceptance is difficult to quantify. An example of this is Japan of several years ago when the WTBTS numbers were growing significantly. How many people could have correctly predicted the very steep decline there of the past few years?

  4) Modeling is more difficult in countries were the WTBTS is faced with active competition; these include many of the nations in South America. Gains made by the WTBTS may be due more to shortcomings of its competition than to any special efforts by Brooklyn.

  5) A very big lure of the WTBTS is the promise of a paradise Earth (Real Soon Now) and the appeal of this is undeniable among the poor is less developed and economically stratified countries. Modeling this component is hard because it subsumes a general economic model.

  6) The game theoretic strategy of the WTBTS itself is not well understood and is subject to change. They have many types of adjustments they can make, but two stand out: more money/power vs. more converts, and more short term gains vs. more long term gains. The WTBTS may employ a mixed strategy that is dependent on the specifics of each country.

  7) There is the doctrinal wildcard: it is possible that the WTBTS just might try another time prophecy for the arrival of the Big A. The 1975 debacle is unknown to many in the developing countries and is apparently accepted (or ignored) by many of the members in the more prosperous nations. Perhaps there are other doctrinal changes they could try.

  8) The geopolitical unknowns: what if, by some miracle, communist China became openly accessible to the WTBTS? The world total membership count could double in a year and maybe continue doubling for several years.

  Anyway, my prediction is that the global membership count will continue to increase for the next four years, peak in 2006, and start a slow but sure decline through 2011. After those years of decline, we can expect the WTBTS to mutate as it has in the past, although the changes involved are anyone's guess. Perhaps as a last attempt to stop the inevitable decline, they just might try to go mainstream (no goofy time prophecies, no shunning, no "God's Only True Channel", real charity, real ecumenicalism, etc.). It will be a desperate tactic, for they know that once they try it, there's no turning back.
• 

  larc

  Skimmer,

  When I first read your post, I thought you were making it more complicated than it really is with talk about models of countries and all that. Then I went back and reread it and had to conclude that you made a good analysis of the variables that can effect the growth of this cancer...oops... I meant to say this religion.

  I will comment on only a couple points. First off, regarding dotrinal changes, I think they are in a real bind. I will just give one example. They are finally realizing that at least some of their rank and file need to get a college education. They have many problems because of a poorly educated workforce. Here are a few: (1) poorly educated elders make very bad decisions (2) the rank and file are exhausted from working long hours at low paying jobs to barely get by (3) they can't get trained people at Bethel.

  Now here's the problem. If they encourage college, they know they are going to lose many of their youth to the world. They are also going to lose older members who sacrificed college to pioneer and live poorly.

  I think they are in a real bind here, and I can't see that there is any way out for them. You mentioned that they might become main stream. The World Wide Church of God did that (former beliefs are very similiar to the Witnesses). After becoming mainstrean, their numbers dropped percipitously (sp?)

  Anyway, those are some of my thoughts.
• 

  Farkel

  : A very big lure of the WTBTS is the promise of a paradise Earth (Real Soon Now) and the appeal of this is undeniable among the poor is less developed and economically stratified countries. Modeling this component is hard because it subsumes a general economic model.

  I'm not so sure you are right about that one. If you look at the explosive growth of the WTS in the depression-era 1930's it is easy to conclude that their appeal was most favorable to poor folks who felt powerless over their situation. The uneducated ones were also most drawn and are still most drawn into that faith. Third world countries are rife with poor folks powerless over their situation and with uneducated folks. While a specific model might be hard to create, a general one would not: determine the ratio of hours spent in preaching with baptisms in poor countries and rich ones. Obviously in countries where the WTS has been entrenched for generations, there would be some percentage (perhaps a majority) of baptisms coming from children of JWs and these could be weighted against baptisms in countries where the society has been free to expand their preaching for only a few decades. Also, the poorest of countries have very limited internet access, so I have the opinion that a reasonable parallel could be drawn between growth in the USA in the 1930's (where there was obviously NO internet) and growth in those poorer countries at present.

  I have no doubt that the society has already spent a large amount of time with their own actuarial research in the emerging countries and planned their preaching/expansion activities around it. Maybe we should ask THEM, then?

  Farkel
• 

  Skimmer

  The Christian Science religion ("Church of Christ, Scientist") was founded, like the WTBTS, in the United States back in the late 19th century. Its distinguishing characteristic is that it teaches that pain is unreal and that medical assistance of any kind is to be avoided.

  Unlike the WTBTS, Christian Science does not have a high mutation rate; i.e., no regularly issued "new light". Its consistency along with its quirky belief set have cost it dearly in terms of the membership count: roughly a three quarters drop over the past three decades. This can be considered as a cautionary tale for the WTBTS hardliners as to what will happen to the JW count if there are no regular adjustments to the "truth".

  But who could have predicted the Christian Science drop? Is there a similar unpredictable and unpleasant (to the WTBTS, at least) drop in the JW worldwide count?
• 

  ozziepost

  G'day Skimmer,

  IMHO extrapolation is a weak budgeting tool. I can recall our Service Overseer giving a Service Meeting part a few years back. He was commenting on publisher increases and said that we "are seeing exponential growth"! How wrong he was!!!

  I also feel that before we get too excited about the numbers decreasing, we should remember what happened after 1975. For about 6 to 8 years the numbers did fall, but that was 'arrested' and gradually a decline was replaced by growth once again. I think it was Ray Franz (in one of his books) who used the expression 'revolving door' to describe the replacement of older members with new ones. The new ones didn't have any memory of 1975 to affect them and gradually the whole 1975 thing was relegated to the forgotten past. Not by all, of course. I suspect we will see a similar thing to the reaction to the change in the 'generation' teaching.

  I will admit, however, that there is a difference between 1975 and today, and that is the internet. Places such as this, as well as information sites, may well be the tool to break the cycle of the Borg's continual renewal. Time will tell. The anniversary of 1914 must be significant, mustn't it?

  Cheers,
  Ozzie

  "Truth persuades by teaching, but does not teach by persuading."
  TERTULLIAN, Adversus Valentinianos
• 

  Moxy

  good analysis skimmer. ive also done some predictive extrapolation and i think it does have value. but one should understand its limits. extrapolative stats show more clearly what the current trends actually represent and what would happen if they continued. but it has to be understood that that 'if' is making a lot of assumptions. but unless you make a good extrapolative analysis, its very hard to tell what the current trends mean just by looking at them. ozzie's comment illustrates that. this elder looks at the numbers and says we are seeing 'exponential growth' - ok, let's assume that in reality he has no idea what the difference is between exponential and geometric growth or what derivatives are or anything. still, you could look at the numbers from say about 5 years ago and think everything was going pretty good. without a good analysis, you wouldnt see that there had in fact been a declining trend for the last 10 years before then. the continuing decline since then has really only been a steady continuation of that trend. if someone had really understood extrapolative analysis and done their homework, the last 5 years would be no surprise.

  mox
• 

  RunningMan

  I would also like to add a couple of other factors into this evaluation:

  1. Little is known about the life cycle of the WTBS. In western countries
  it appears to reach a saturation level arount 1:250 of population. This
  differs by culture. Also I suspect that the demographics of JW's in
  western countries are starting to pull away from national averages - most
  conversions occurred a few decades ago, with most new conversions coming
  from reproduction. Therefore JW's are aging faster than the rest of the
  population, due to not refilling with young converts.

  2. There is a global waxing and waning of apocalyptic thinking that affects
  their growth. During the cold war, nuclear war scared years, the "end of the
  world" scenario had broader appeal. Unknown future world developments will
  be another wildcard.

  3. As already mentioned, no one knows what the Society will mutate into
  over the coming years.

  Overall, I believe that thier numbers in western nations will continue to erode
  and age, being offset by growth in the third world. Unless they go mainstream,
  they will be on a perpetual decline - they are basically near their peak, now. They
  will plateau around 7,500,000 members worldwide and then start a slide.
• 

  open_mind

  Does anyone know the stats of people who left who were born into JW life against those who left and weren't always JW's? I was always curious about those stats. Also, it seems that the WT must lie about their enrollment numbers in their yearbooks. Is this true? If it is, is there any way to refute their numbers?
• 

  LDH

  MOXY,

  let's assume that in reality he has no idea what the difference is between exponential and geometric growth

  Umm since the elder body consists of 'untrained volunteers' per JR Brown, I'm thinking this is one assumption that is dead on the money.

  Just another figure of speech some bumpkin elder heard and decided to work into his talk.

  Nice post, Skimmer.

  Lisa
• 

  Skimmer

  I think that the numbers published in the annual report are accurate totals of the numbers sent in by the congregations. It would be hard to fabricate the published sums as too many people would have to be in collusion.

  On the other hand, I have serious doubts about the validity of the "total hours preached" as these are derived from individuals. I'm sure that part of the recent decline in the converts per hours preached statistic is due to an extensive and growing padding by many reporting field service time.