At first I started reading the OP without checking the date. I thought, hmmmm, this is pretty interesting.
Then I saw that it was written 12 years ago.
So much for "critical mass".
C.O. Reports: JWs/WTS "Reach Critical Mass...
by BitterTruth 107 Replies latest jw friends
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wallsofjericho
look how much HAS happened though since this orignal post
generation - twice!
1935 closing of the call - gone
Jesus "arrival" now in great tribulation, not 1918
book study - gone
F&DS = Governing body
domestics = anointed AND other sheep
the ten toes cahnged again
the mustard seed, the dragnet, etc. changed again (i can't even remember how...)
majority of brooklyn heights sold
California pedophile settlement $16+million
Candace Conti
JW's told the F&DS does not endorse any media content not under the direction of the WTS
R&F all got really detailed blood fraction cards with check boxes for how what types of blood fractions they will conscienciously take
JW.org is huge now, JW's are pumping the website like the internet is brand new! JW's taking iPads out in service right to the door
and how many things have I forgotten?
If all of this stuff happened all at once JW's would have been falling flat on their faces!
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steve2
I guess one of the main things this 12-year-old post highlights is the folly of making predictions that the end is near - whether it be the end of the world or the end of the Watchtower. I tired long ago of threads that predicted such-and-such-an-event would shake the organization to its core. Look at the threads started over the Australian Mr Unthank's fervid attempts to bring the Watchtower to its apologetic knees in Court. How many posters whipped up frenzied views about the significance about that non-event on this forum? I will credit Mr Unthank with not directly posting on this forum; mind you, he hasn't had to given how readily others have posted developments for us.
Breathless sensationalizing comes and goes on this forum almost as reliably as it does at Watchtower conventions. meanwhile, the Watchtower maintains an unblinking stand and (some of) Mr Unthank's comments take on an increasingly protracted story about being persecuted by the Watchtower. Um, no you're not, Mr Unthank. It's just turned out far differently from how you wanted it to. Bor-ing.
That said, many here on this forum have often said that the Watchtower will not end by mass exodus but more by petering out. My mantra has often been, the Watchtower's biggest enemy is not apostasy but apathy.
For several years, the number of baptisms has shrunk to well under a half of what they once were - and in some countries barely reach one-third of previous highs.
Of interest, in 2012, memorial attendances worldwide were down by more than 200,000 over 2011. It remains to be seen whether this "dip" has continued in the present year.
Be that as it may, I would never expect the organization to "suddenly" hemorrhage active membership; it's more likely to be mundane and gradual, like older ones persevering in the door-to-door work whilst younger ones get caught up in having to be in paid employment weekends and the preaching work gets second place. Or - a frequently observed fact in this forum - the aging bodies of elders in local congregations with fewer suitable younger brothers to step into their shoes.
For years to come, the organization will cash in on 'splash and dash' events such as special months for auxiliary pioneering - but as with all such 'look-at-how-zealous-I-am' events, the capacity the organization once had to sustain growth in the West is long gone.
Don't expect a bang but do listen for a spluttering sound in the years to come.
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sir82
Yeah, the premise of the OP is not sound - there will never be a "mass exodus", no matter how much we'd all like to see it.
But the organization is definitely in a "defensive posture".
It is selling assets, but not replacing them. Contributions seem to be down.
Non-immigrant publishers counts in the western world are declining (maksed by still-impressive growth in immigrant-language congregations).
Doctrinal changes are coming out, not due to "brilliant flashes of light", but to cover over glaring absurdities.
Policy changes are being driven, not by concern for the flock, but to limit legal liability.
The number of hours spent in the ministry is slowly chugging up, from 1 billion hours per year to now nearly 2 billion per year. Yet the number of baptisms is slowly slumping downward. So the ministry is more and more a time consuming & ineffective.
Lawsuits continue against them, mostly being settled out of court, but now they have officially lost one, and must hope for a reversal on appeal.
Everything I see points to more and more effort being expended, yet the organization is just sort of "treading water".
With the number of baptisms continuing to decline, and the demographics of those remaining in shifting inexorably to being older and older, it is inevitable that there will be "negative growth" within just a few more years.
I think the number of JWs will soon hits a peak of around 8 million, maybe slightly higher, very soon, then begin a decades-long slump to half that number, or less, by oh, say 2040 or 2050.
JWs will not end with a bang, but a whimper.
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Rattigan350
How about the fact of the Law of diminishing returns.
It is the same problem of MLM. As more people preach and then join, there is more people preaching and fewer people to preach to and less territory. That is the problem with Multi Level Marketing. When the congregations grow, they split and the territories split and less to preach to. Soon people can only take out a street or a block. How to pioneers get their hours in when there is no territory to work?
wallsofjericho above wrote "1935 closing of the call - gone"
I don't know why people believed that Rutherford's declaration that the great crowd of Rev 7 being the ones not anointed at that time, means that the anointing stopped except for replacements. That was not taught in the literature. What was taught was the general or mass anointing stopped.
Steve2 said: My mantra has often been, the Watchtower's biggest enemy is not apostasy but apathy."
And the economy. That is what is shutting things down. I love it when the economy goes bad and gas prices go up. Pioneers get hit and people out of work means less donations and attendance.
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The Quiet One
Bttt
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villagegirl
Friend- Really ? "I for one very much enjoy associating with people wanting to do right according to God’s word, the Bible. In that regard I think that Jehovah’s Witnesses are a remarkable people and I am happy they let me associate with them for that reason." REALLY ???? Are you kidding Me???
Seriously ?? Are you aware of the Candace Conti law suit ?????
This law suit, reveals the true nature of:
"people wanting to do the right thing according to the Bible"
The REALITY is pedophiles among Jehovah's Witnesses,
are NOT TURNED INTO THE POLICE, because these;
"wanting to do the right thing"(sic)
Elders put the WT rules above what is right and above the LAW.
And in doing so the Wt Society puts itself above the Bible,
bearing false witness, and above the law of the land for
sexual predators. What is "Biblical" about that - Friend ??????
The witnesses ALWAYS choose the WTS over the Bible.
The doctrines of the WT are copied from Adventism,
wake-up, you do NOT have "special knowledge"
And the WT does not do what Jesus said Christians should do,
which he illustrated in the Good Samaritan parable and in the parable
" I was hungry and you fed me, naked and you clothed me.."
This was an extension of charity and care for those
less fortunate that was exemplified in the Hebrew scriptures;
EXAMPLE: The Law of the Gleaners.
Now surely Friend, you consider your self such a Bible student, you must know
these examples ???? And how doe the Watchtower fufill these principles???