by darkspilver 61 Replies latest jw friends
Congs down 13 from their peak in 2016
@Freddo - I think that should be UP by 13, from 1,613 in 2016 to 1,626 in 2017.
I think the reason for this, despite a fall of almost 800 publishers is that many of the foreign language "groups" have now become "congregations" in their own right. As they share a KH and pay little or nothing to its running and upkeep, they can operate with very low numbers.
George
Unquestionably (in the US), the 'business model' of the WT, for lack of a better term, has changed dramatically in the last ten years. Many long time congregations, with their own paid-for halls, have been dissolved. This is not because of low attendance necessarily, but because the WT is trying to manage the KH usage efficiently so they can sell property and use the money elsewhere. At the same time, there are pre-groups, groups, and congregations in the foreign language fields that consist of mostly the English speakers who have transferred from their own congregation into the newly created foreign language congregation. For these reasons I am cautious to read too much into the change in number of congregations from year to year.
darkspilver, thanks for clarification on the USA figures. Surely that is totally dishonest. They show peak figures for other lands, then because USA peak is so low they choose to publish the average figure.
I presume you are not in a position to publish other counties average publishers?
alanv - I understand that ALL the percentage changes for publishers numbers are based on 'Average Publisher' numbers, not just the USA. I've looked at the calculations. Unfortunately I don't have the average numbers, just the Grand Total Average Publisher number.
I see Russia has been removed from the listing and added to the "other" column. Which produces an overall decrease. Comparison of this table with yours should reveal exactly how many Russian JWs have been lost in the last year.
AMENDED CONGREGATION FIGURES IN LIGHT OF SLIMBOYFAT'S/St. GEORGE'S CORRECTION OF MY ORIGINAL POST.
"Britain" is looking gloomy for them ...
5 years of STATS 2013-2017 Highest figure in bold italics
2013 PEAK PUBS/CONGS/MEMORIAL/BAPT 136,993 1558 223,845 2539
2014 PEAK PUBS/CONGS/MEMORIAL/BAPT 138,515 1571 230,577 2928
2015 PEAK PUBS/CONGS/MEMORIAL/BAPT 137,631 1605 225,584 2286
2016 PEAK PUBS/CONGS/MEMORIAL/BAPT 138,261 1613 226,750 2309
2017 PEAK PUBS/CONGS/MEMORIAL/BAPT 137,468 1626 222,201 2216
Pubs down 1,047 from their peak in 2014
Congs at a peak in 2017
Memorial down 8,376 from their peak in 2014
Baptisms down 712 from their peak in 2014
Very interesting.
Europe, even Eastern Europe, appears to be in full-scale decline now. The only countries with modest growth are places where there are a lot of immigrants and refugees, and even so, virtually no EU country even reached 1% growth.
I think we can call the US as "flat" now. A change of +0.1% is for all practical purposes "0%". Given the creative "accounting" done by many congregation secretaries, not to mention flat-out errors, it is well within a "margin of error" for it to be 0%.
So, in Europe and the US, we have finally reached the "flat" stage. Growth is effectively dead. They can't even replace the number lost to death, disfellowshipping, and inactivity.
And it will get worse. They are rolling out their "master plan" of closing Kingdom Halls, merging congregations, making rural elderly JWs travel greater distances to attend meetings in Kingdom Halls filled with strangers while their lifelong friends get assigned elsewhere....
All of which is utterly morale-busting. They might be able to cobble together a few more years of 0% or -1%, but by 2020, the decline will be blindingly obvious to those left remaining.
JWs are all but finished in the US and Europe. Now begins the decades-long slow death spiral.
Unless they rapidly change in dramatic fashion. I have got a plan ready for use, they want to get in contact.
As a Brazilian, I'm ashamed. Holy shit how could we give birth to 224 new cong at this point of the history?
You can see that, Brazil is the only land with more than 100 M population that has this rage of growth. I think the actual World headquarters of JWs are not in NY, but in Cesario Lange, SP.
LOL @ Slimboy's " I have got a plan ready for use, they want to get in contact."
Any Corporation worth its salt would get in touch, and pay well for it !
Don't hold your breath though, they ain't worth jack shit and they certainly wouldn't want to pay you.
As for the figures, for which many thanks again Darkspilver and others, I see an Org in decline where it counts, the Countries where Contributions come from and Real Estate is worth big $$$. They will soon be hurting for lack of cash for daily use.
