by Marvin Shilmer 37 Replies latest jw friends
I'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the Royal Commission.
While I'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the PEAK publisher figures reported by Watchtower for the Australian Branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?
My thanks in advance. If I had more time I'd dig this up myself without bothering anyone.
Here are the stats up to 2009:
Okay...
I constructed a basic statistic based on the sexual child abuse data from the Australian Branch.
BASIC STATISTIC:
For the 10-year period of 2005-2014 there is an annual average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher. This amounts to an average annual number of about 0.40 per 1000 peak publishers.
What I counted:
- I did not include any value for perp cases identified as "Not JW member". I treated these cases as though they do not exist.
- I included values for cases with dates of report.
- I gave no assigned value (i.e., I made no assumptions) to any of the many cases with "unclear" indicated for year of report. In other words, I did not attempt to extrapolate a value for the period of 2005-2014 from the many cases with no clear year indicated for reporting of the abuse. My basis statistic treats these cases as though they do not exist.
Extrapolation:
Based on an annual average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher, for the 10-year period of 2005-2014 there is an estimated worldwide number of 28,827 individuals associated with Jehovah's Witnesses that have been reported for sexual molestation of a child.
Those are 28,827 reasons why WT's GB Jackson may not present himself to the Royal Commission's courtroom next week and 28,827 reasons why WT's GB Lett refused to testify in the U.S. a few months ago on another JW child molestation case.
It's much, much worse than that.
Keep in mind that the extrapolated value of 28,827 is only for the last 10 years. Think about what that means.
In the 1006 thread I calculated the ratio (conservatively) to be 1.85 victims per abuser.
So with 28,827 known abusers, using the ratio of 1.85 victims per 1 abuser, this suggests there have been 53,330 child abuse victims in the 10 year period 2005-2014.
Those children could fill a convention stadium!
In the 1006 thread I calculated the ratio (conservatively) to be 1.85 victims per abuser.
So with 28,827 known abusers, using the ratio of 1.85 victims per 1 abuser, this suggests there have been 53,330 child abuse victims in the 10 year period 2005-2014.
I'm going to take a look at that based on the statistical slice I've constructed. What rules did you use in cases where the victim count is unstated or shown as a minimum value?
Something doesn't sound right - that's nearly half the current population of Australian JWs.
Granted that figure is over a 10 year period, and there is a lot of churn amongst JWs (not everyone who was a JW 10 years ago has remained one, and many of the current JWs were not around 10 years ago), but it still sounds very high.
What rules did you use in cases where the victim count is unstated or shown as a minimum value?
From the thread referenced:
'10+' could mean any number 10 and above, and 'Unclear' could mean any number 1 and above.
These were not being counted in the total.
I replaced all the '10+' with the number 10, and all the 'Unclear' with the number 1...
The total number of victims on this list is 1857.
This means the ratio is 1857 victims / 1006 abusers = 1.85/1 ratio
