British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends

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  Doubting Bro

  Is it a coincidence that as of January 2009 the monthly publisher counts have been dropped from the Kingdom Ministry?

  No, I don't think its a coincidence at all. There is something else going on but I can't put my finger on it. For an organization that is OBSESSED with numbers, not having them in front of everyone every month is a pretty significant change. They are certainly attempting to reposition themselves but I haven't a clue how.

  SBF - Many on this forum seem to assume that very large numbers of Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe in it any more and only keep going because of a mixture of habit, fear of shunning, and social ties. I doubt that very much.

  While I agree there is a tendancy to project, I disagree that most are "all in". If they were, they would be following things much more closely. Meeting attendance is not nearly as good as it once was (from my personal observations), the urgency in service just isn't there, "higher" education is being villified yet my personal observation from 3 different parts of the US with elder/ms kids is that it is being for the most part ignored, entertainment choices are definately not in line with WTS guidelines. Basically, my personal observations among JWs that most in the congregation would consider strong is that they would be considered weak JWs 20 years ago. The level of committment just isn't as strong as it once was.

  I do agree with you that they could once again return to strong growth, but the only way that will happen is the rise of another Franz like oracle who can get the masses energized again. Apathy is their single biggest organizational issue in my opinion. Get folks excited about it again, set a date with conviction and I think you would see more committment from the rank & file. But, then you would run the risk of having a great disappointment again. But, you could at least get more short term growth.
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  MissingLink

  I think this article is overly optimistic. This trend of disillusionment may be predictable if it were a mainstream religion, but cults are totally different. I've been in many congregations, and know that some have not had a door-to-door convert in decades. But this doesn't seem to phase them at all. And there's still a lot of 3rd world immigrant blood to be tapped. And don't forget: "there's a sucker born every minute".
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  slimboyfat

  I think this article is overly optimistic.

  The article may be wrong, but I don't think it is optimistic. The author has no interest in JW numbers collapsing. He is making a sociological argument, not an ideological one.
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  jgnat

  I am reading Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 by Strauss and Howe. This book describes society's cycles through "Awakening", "Inner Driven", "Crisis", and "Outer-Driven". The Bible Students, forerunners of the JW's were founded during the "Missionary" generation described in this book, and part of a great "Awakening" era for the US. Some of the prominent generations that we've seen since are described as "GI's (the ones who fought in WW2)", "Boomers" and "Millenials". None of the preceding generations were as spiritually or religously minded as the Missionary generation. One might say the hippies/boomers were an exception, but their spirituality was of a decidedly inner-driven and personal affair. If the book is right, my granddaughter (Millenial) is heading in to a "Crisis" era, very similar to our GI's. Perhaps the war this time won't be between nation-states, but a war to save our planet. Anyhow, that's what I think. If the generation theory holds, we aren't due for another "Awakening" era for several hundred years.

  My GI grandparents weren't so interested in spiritual affairs. They were can-do people united to save and re-engineer their world. Their greatest dream was for home, peace, order, and tranquillity.

  This sociologist gives us much to think about; thank you for sharing. I do agree that the "pool" of susceptible people is shrinking. If my generations authors are right, this up and coming generation will be much more focused on survival than providing empty "spiritual" food.

  Not that all spirituality is empty. But the Watchtower's sanitized articles are decidedly bereft.
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  dozy

  It is difficult to examine the motives of JWs , especially when we approach the matter from a standpoint of fading or ex-JWs who are disillusioned with the Org. I don’t doubt that there are a core of “true believers” who are pioneering like there is no tomorrow and diligently trying to obey all the WTS directives.

  My own perception , though , is that these ones are in the minority. 30 years ago you simply couldn’t miss a meeting unless you were virtually dead. Now whole families consistently miss meetings for the most casual of reasons – slept in on Sunday , bit of a headache etc etc. Attendance is 70% and falling – as the figures include children & “interested ones” , only about 60% of JWs attend meetings on any given day.

  We had a meeting a few months ago with a very gung ho public talk that insisted that the ministry was the most important work we had to do , followed by a Watchtower on a similar theme. Answer after answer was given from the cong about how vital the service was , what a life-saving work it was , whipped up by an enthusiastic & sincere Watchtower conductor. Afterwards there was a meeting for field service – I was the assigned brother to take it. Not one brother or sister turned up out of the whole cong. I waited to see if anyone had gone & were returning but no one came back. I just turned off the lights & went home.

  I was chatting with a long-established elder who has been a JW for 50 years & is always on the assembly program. The conversation started to get a bit deep as I discussed my reservations about the WTS. “You know what , Dozy?” he told me. “I sometimes wonder whether there is a God.”

  What I am saying is that the majority of witnesses have been trained from birth to go through the motions. They know what to say , what they can (and can’t) get away with. The WTS has created millions of superficial individuals who have a strong family & friends network and a devotion on a certain level to the “organization” but no spiritual depth , no meaningful relationship with God or Jesus. The result is stagnation and perhaps an inevitable decline.
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  slimboyfat

  While I agree there is a tendancy to project, I disagree that most are "all in". If they were, they would be following things much more closely. Meeting attendance is not nearly as good as it once was (from my personal observations), the urgency in service just isn't there, "higher" education is being villified yet my personal observation from 3 different parts of the US with elder/ms kids is that it is being for the most part ignored, entertainment choices are definately not in line with WTS guidelines. Basically, my personal observations among JWs that most in the congregation would consider strong is that they would be considered weak JWs 20 years ago. The level of committment just isn't as strong as it once was.

  Yes I agree that Jehovah's Witnesses in general are not as committed as they were 20 years ago or more. But that doesn't mean it has gone to the other extreme: that none of them believe any more, or that everyone is just going through the motions. I think there has been a dampening of enthusiasm and commitment, not a collapse.

  Over higher education the Watchtower leadership created a particular problem by sending out mixed signals, endorsing higher education for a few years and then apparently backtracking. It is not surprising that if it is in their own interest some Witnesses will emphasize the more liberal statements from the 1990s on the issue.

  While there are indications of declining enthusiasm in terms of meeting attendance and suitable elders putting themselves forward there are some indicators that counter that trend. The proportion of pioneers in the organization has gone up over the past few decades for example, and overall the number of hours preaching has held up quite well too. And when push comes to shove there are still remarkable examples of Witnesses in western countries willing to put their lives on the line rather than accept blood, something which is hard to reconcile with a view that Witnesses are not committed to their faith.
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  Quirky1

  The D2D is an unsuccessful attempt to gain new members locally. Most new members are born-ins or a family member or friend of a JW. I cannot feasibly see an increase in numbers except in thirld wold countries where they are ingnorant of the facts that surround JW's and their religion.

  I also beleive that many are retained as members with fear of losing their family and friends whether they believe or not. I do agree the internet has opened many doors and windows for many.
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  drew sagan

  Another thought.

  I think one major "reward" he is missing out on is the benifits that come to younger males. Men are able to attain a high amount of social status and prestige within the group. I would actually argue that this is just as important as many other well known factors that have driven growth (such as the "truth" message he speaks of). They are never in short supply of men who want to "reach out" so that they can gain status. Just think, to be a Watchtower Elder, Co, Do, even MS many times means that you are looked up to, admired, and have a status that overall is above the adverage publisher. Many young ambitious men give their heart and soul to the movement with the hope of advancement. To them I belive "growth" is not as important as simply the opportunity for advancement (or at least the perception of opportunity).
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  Doubting Bro

  I agree that the number of pioneers to publishers has increased but you have to take that with a grain of salt since the pioneer hours were cut by 1/3rd (from 90 to 60). That helped create a bit a bump. Still, I agree that putting that much time in (whether 90 or 60 hours per month) shows a level of committment. Overall hours is a function of increase in number of people since the WTS is still reporting increases although they are not increasing at the level they once were. The 15 min publisher is not a valid argument since there are very few that even qualify for that "provision" and at best it was a one year bump. Interestingly, the average hours per month in the US is down slightly (from close to 10 to close to 9). I anticipate that number will increase this year due to the bump of allowing both parents count the family study.

  On the blood issue, I'm friends with a non-JW health care worker at a larger hospital who deals with JWs on a fairly regular basis (as regular as you can with a religion that comprises about .05% of the population in the US). This person told me that if the HLC is not involved in a blood case, between 1/3rd & 1/2 of the JWs will compromise. Of course, if the HLC is brought in, that percentage drops significantly. Still, even if half of the JWs are willing to sacrifice their life, I agree that is a significant committment. But, if you were to go back 20 years, I'd be willing to bet that the percentage that would take blood would be much less. Again, this is just one person's observation but I take them at their word.

  I think the committment level starts showing itself with the small things and that eventually leads to the big things. That's why I can't see the sudden collapse but more of a steady decline. Eventually, the apathy and disobedience, the damping of enthusiasm and commitment will catch up unless something is done to stem the tide. I really think WT leadership is well aware of the trend but hasn't figured out what to do to stop it. I'm sure they're hoping the big A happens soon.
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  Leolaia

  The JWs of course are a global religion and per capita access to the internet varies considerably from country to country, so it is doubtful that the internet would have any appreciable limiting effect in "third world" lands where access is restricted to the elite. In the first world, I think the effect of the internet is less on baptized Witnesses already in the organization and more on prospective converts who would mostly be invisible to JW publisher statistics (whereas the effect may be manifest in book study and baptism stats). This is part of a general consumer trend since the late 1990s to check out the validity and worth of a product; Amazon.com has its consumer book reviews, many check Rotten Tomatoes.com before paying money to go to a movie, many look up a prospective restaurant on Yelp.com, etc. If I see an infomercial on television that looks minimally interesting, I always google the name of the product to see what people are saying about it. So far I think proactively informed consumers are in the minority, but they are a growing minority, and if access to the internet hasn't begun to yet impact the number of "interested ones who respond to the kingdom message" in first world countries, I believe it will in the near future.

  I agree that the number of pioneers to publishers has increased but you have to take that with a grain of salt since the pioneer hours were cut by 1/3rd (from 90 to 60). That helped create a bit a bump. Still, I agree that putting that much time in (whether 90 or 60 hours per month) shows a level of committment. Overall hours is a function of increase in number of people since the WTS is still reporting increases although they are not increasing at the level they once were.

  This is reminiscent of the situation after 1925. The overall number of Bible Students loyal to Rutherford declined sharply between 1926-1930 (until the Great Depression took hold in most places), whereas the number of colporteurs (and their zeal) increased steadily during the same period.