2008 Publisher Statistics Charted

by jwfacts 29 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  jwfacts

  I have updated the information at http://www.jwfacts.com/index_files/statistics.htm to include the 2008 figures. Here are a couple of the more interesting charts.

  The following shows the increase in memorial partakers, which has been discussed at length in other threads.

  The following two are my favourites. Average publishers increased by 150,000 less than the number baptised. That is 50%, meaning that the chance a person has of staying a Witness is about that same as the chance a marriage will stay together in the USA.

  After the "encouraging" statistics of 2007 for the WTS, 2008 is heading back to the trend of the last decade or low growth and high turnover.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Charts for total pioneers, congregations, and hours per publisher would also be interesting.

  You can make a case for the total number of congregations being the most enlightening figure over the long term:

  1. It is in many ways the most reliable figure. Other figures can be distorted at various levels: publishers turn in fake hours, secretaries fill in reports on behalf of people who fail to report, irregulars get added to the peak total, plus it has even been known for branches to inflate their publisher and memorial numbers. However the number of congregations is likely to be a very accurate because it is hard to fake on any level. There is no such thing as a whole phantom congregation submitting reports, and the number of congregations in branches could theoretically be independently checked.

  2. Other statistics may be subject to fluctuations due to temporary movements. However a congregation takes a long time to build up, and the decision to split or merge congregations is only taken when longer term trends indicate a need. Plus whereas changes in the hour requirements for pioneers distorts the meaning of those totals, the commitment level not just in terms of publishers, but in the number of elders needed to perform key tasks in order to form a congregation is fairly stable over the long term and is a good indication of the health of organization as a whole.

  3. It gives a good basis for comparison with other religious organizations of a similar type to Jehovah's Witnesses. Attendance at congregation meetings falls fairly consistently within a range of around 50 - 120 or so. Bigger congregations tend to be found where the organization is expanding and smaller congregations where it is contracting. Comparable religious groups such as Mormons, Adventists, Assemblies of God, Brethren and so on have a similar pattern in the size of their congregations.

  The growth in JW congregations has been more modest but steadier over time than other measures. It would make an interesting graph.

  Mormons claim to have over 11 million members worldwide compared to Jehovah's Witnesses at around 7 million. However if you compare the number of congregations each organization has it shows a different picture. Jehovah's Witnesses have 103,000 congregations: does anyone know the latest figure for how many Mormon congregations there are? Crucially is the number of Mormon congregations going up or down?
• 

  Witness 007

  Must be alot of sinful anointed being replaced.
• 

  jwfacts

  Good comment SlimBoyFat. Congregations do vary quite considerably in size and can drop from 100 to 50 without affecting total number of congregations, so any change in numbers would be revealed only gradually over time. I haven't got that number so if anyone has already collated it please send it through and I will post it.

  One other interesting statistic is that over 50 countries have 0 or negative growth, almost one quarter of all countries.
• 

  Awakened at Gilead

  Must be alot of sinful anointed being replaced.

  Must be coming down from heaven and sinning with the daughters of men... you know that types like da judge couldn't chase enough skirts while he was here on the earth... _____ jwfacts... Thanks for the analysis! I hope I can get my mother to look at your site next week!
• 

  BurnTheShips

  So growth is down to 2%. From a quick glance it seems to me that the biggest contributor to the decline in growth over 2007 is the leavers.

  BTS
• 

  carla

  I can never truly wrap my head around the jw logic of the 144,000. How does a jw see the increase in 'partakers' and not be 'stumbled'? If part of the increase is due to sinners who no longer qualify and many of those are already dead, where did they sin? in heaven? how's that possible? How do they reason that out in their own head?

  I'm not sure my jw even understands all the changes and what they meant for long time jw's, I imagine he just goes along and waits upon jah to sort it out for him? How would you even be able to knock on a door with your message when you don't even get it yourself?
• 

  blondie

  2007

  27,827 LDS congregations (probably somewhat larger than WTS)

  http://newsroom.lds.org/ldsnewsroom/eng/statistical-information
• 

  wobble

  Presumably at least 1% per year of the annointed die (WT speak "Finish their earthly course") so that is about 1500 who have dropped out during the eighteen years of your graph,they can't all have been fake partakers,so isn't the heavenly corral for the 144k REALLY full up?

  Love

  Wobble
• 

  slimboyfat

  Blondie my point is that Mormons are in fact a much smaller organization that JWs - despite the postive PR they get in the press about their supposed growth. They have far fewer congregations worldwide, and in fact their congregations on average are no bigger than JW congregations. And crucially while the number of JW congregations is increasing the number of Mormon congregations is now decreasing.

  Mormon figures are highly misleading because they add each new baptised convert to their total membership but do not routinely drop people from their membership figures when they are no longer active. With JW figures people are automatically no longer counted in the total when they no longer report preaching time on the time slip. A Mormon convert on the other hand is still included in the membership total even if the local congregation has lost all contact with the individual. This means that many people (probably millions) are counted as Mormons who no longer have effective ties to the church and who no longer consider themselves Mormons.

  So while Mormons claim a membership of 5 million in the US against this has to be measured what is called "activity rates" in their church. This means the percentage of the nominal membership figure that a local congregation can expect to turn up at the local temple on any given Sunday. Mormon missionaries in Western countries have estimated this rate to be as low as 20 to 30% and it is declining further. This means that while the official membership figures say there are around 180,000 Mormons in the UK if you actually counted up all the Mormons attending local services on a Sunday in the UK there would likely be fewer than 50,000 actually in attendance.