The U.S. now has over 1,000,000 average publishers - Why?

by truthseeker 29 Replies latest jw friends

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  mkr32208

  Well they still have a lot of studies and lots of new publishers! The difference is that many many many of these pubs never quite get around to taking the last step! Many of them come on to places like this and stop the study and leave but they still BECAME publishers at some point so they can put down the number! And if a publisher leaves with no phone number or anything we all know that the brother (sucker) who tabulates the time will continue to just put in the number from last month for a while!

  I think they've rounded the curve and are on the downward spiral but that won't be reflected in the "official" numbers for a time, if ever! I think that they will come up with different counting methodology for the next few years! We could all be "active" and not even know it! How would we know if they sent in hours and placements under our names?
  
  
• 

  AuldSoul

  There is always a ramp in February and in August. Also, they have a kindergarten book they are studying with people from called "What Does the Bible Really Teach."

  This wholly remarkable publication quite honestly omits the term Faithful and Discreet Slave and all reference to Matthew 24:45-47 or Luke 12:42-44. It is as near an acknowledgment as I ever hope to get that they KNOW the Bible does not really teach that doctrine.

  I think this publication will draw a lot of idiots into the cult.

  Respectfully,
  AuldSoul
• 

  FairMind

  MinisterAmos touched upon a possibility, the increase in the Hispanic JWs. Consider how many new JWs in the USA are immigrants from Mexico. Over 7,000 per day are emigrating from Mexico, legal or otherwise. Many of these would be JWs. Wonder if other religions also have increased Hispanic head count?
• 

  TheListener

  Truthseeker, how did you get the February '06 numbers already? They should be contained in the June '06 KM - do you have it already? If so, can you share any information it contains?

  Perhaps the number of publishers that exist are just becoming slightly more regular. Really, they are just teetering on the million mark and have been close for some time.
• 

  blondie

  Question:

  Say that a publisher did not report time for 3 months in the service year and in August the secretary checked with them and then they reported time for those 3 months. When that time is reported to the WTS, is it reported as occurring in those months or in August? Then is it reported as being from 3 separate individuals or as one total for one person for the month of August (although it is from only one person)?

  Example:

  November 2005: 5 hours

  January 2006: 5 hours

  March 2006: 5 hours

  August 2006: 5 hours plus 15 hours = 20 hours for that one publisher

  Does this make any sense?

  Blondie
• 

  XBEHERE

  Blondie,

  If Joe Publisher gives me his report for 3 months say he gives me Jan, Feb, March and I am doing the report for April (though it was already due on the May 6th) all that takes place is he is counted as 4 publishers submitting a report. There are only totals submitted to the Branch no individuals.

  So say I have 66 publishers but Joe gives me 4 months worth. Then instead of 66 publishers I submit a total of 70. This is per the instructions on the form to submit reports. Does it make sense I dont know, but this is the way WT wants it done. In fact reports are being submitted online now in some areas of the U.S. mine included.
• 

  sir82

  The Hispanic population is almost certainly the cause of the increase.

  At the elders' school in December, it was mentioned that 1/4 (250,000) of the JWs in the US belong to Spanish language congregations.

  Between the illegal immigrants who move here who are already JWs, and the other illegal immigrants who respond readily to proseletyzing efforts, there is enormous, explosive growth in the JW population where there are large concentrations of "undocumented workers" (California, Texas, North Carolina, etc.)

  In such areas, wherever illegal immigrants are found, the witnessing work has enormous success--not for any religious reasons, mind you, or at least, most of the time no.

  Think of it--you've come from a poverty-stricken village from Mexico, no running water, chickens running around on the dirt-covered streets, you've spent your entire life savings to get to America. You've landed an $8 per hour job plucking chicken feathers at the local butchery, but you have no friends, you're living with 8 other illegals in a one-bedroon apartment....then on the one Sunday you happen to be at home, not working, a well-dressed husband and wife, obviously American & bi-lingual, come by & give you magazines in your own language, invite you to their "church", and offer to study the Bible with you. You think "hey, this is my chance to assimilate a bit into the culture". You go to the Kingdom Hall, and you see about 100 people just like you, but fitting into society, with a real (apparent) support network, and all you need to do to join is to "study" once a week and go to the meetings....

  I suspect that in about 10-20 years, in the US, English-speaking JWs will be the minority.
• 

  TheListener

  I'm not disagreeing with you Sir82 because I've always heard that the Spanish speaking congregations are growing like wildfire too.

  If one accepts this then the it stands to reason that the english speaking congregations must be shrinking.

  If you look at the numbers the average number of dubs isn't increasing my much and if the growth in the spanish halls is so great then the large gains that should be posted for the US are being offset by the english speaking congregations.

  I guess this would fall under deductive logic:

  spanish speaking congregations growing rapidly,

  overall numbers of publishers going up but not rapidly,

  therefore non-spanish congregations publisher numbers are falling at a similar rate of spanish growth.

  ??
• 

  sir82

  Listener,

  To illustrate it, here's some completely fictitious numbers, but ones which may not be too far off, which would illustrate the point:

  English-speaking publishers in the US: 700,000

  Spanish-speaking publishers: 250,000

  All other language groups: 50,000

  Rate of decrease in English speaking pubs: 1%, which means 7,000 decrease per year

  Rate of increase in Spanish publishers: 6%, which means 15,000 increase per year

  Rate of increase in "others": 2%, which translates to 1,000 increase per year

  So you have a net increase of [15,000 + 1,000 - 7,000] = 9,000 per year, which is about a 1% increase on a total of 1 million publishers.

  As I mentioned, these numbers have no basis in fact that I know of, but based on my limited experience, sound more or less reasonable.
• 

  TheListener

  Sir 82,

  Thank you. I get it now.

  One would think that as the overall publisher numbers balance out between english and non-english there would be a noticable shift in the tenor of the WT and AW magazines.

  Perhaps there was a shift already and I missed it.