Posts by Saintbertholdt

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

Hi Freddo,

So based on your idea that "...the quality of dubs (ie staying power, stamina) is dropping." how many average publishers do you project in 2050?

Just for reference: The 2014 number (In the 2015 yearbook) is 7 867 958.

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

What if a major cataclysmic scandal hits the Watchtower in the next couple of Years?
For example: On 5 November 2017 the Watchtower declares chapter 11.
Who knows why? Perhaps bad investments, and they run out of funds during their building project upheaval and end up making lots of debt that the faithful can't cover. Who knows? Cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria :) Then the scandals keep on coming (sexual abuse, lawsuits etc.) and they do something really dumb like they try another date prediction, which backfires.

So in this scenario this decades PpPpD drops to zero. Then I use the inverse value (a reverse velocity) of the best decades PpPpD in ascending order. This scenario is a wild wild speculation but then again its Armageddon :)

A Watchtower Armageddon projection

Note: The Average publisher level in 2050 is 1.38 million. Very bad but the organization still survives. Come to think of it, its actually not that bad for the Governing Body. The Risk of Ruin of the organization is virtually zero.

So if I was a betting man (which I am), I'd put the odds as follows:

1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario - (1 in 2)

2. The 'New World' scenario - (1 in 3)

3. The 'Lost World' scenario - (1 in 10)

4. The Pessimist scenario - (1 in 3)

5. A Watchtower Armageddon projection - (1 in 20+)

Conclusion: I come to the unfortunate conviction that the Watchtower corporation is here to stay, but that its growth will be less optimistic than the GB would like. General lows from about 10 to a high of 13 million publishers can be expected in 2050. The extremes (3 deviation limit) are about 1.3 and 23 million.

All in all slightly cloudy with a chance of showers :)

Thanks for all the comments so far.

I'd like to hear your odds and comments on these projections or even your own number projections.

Greetings SB

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

So the Pessimist scenario addresses what most people have and will comment on in that there's a slow exodus from the Watchtower. To back that up the PpPpD Ratio has been declining quite linearly between 1990 and 2010. The 2010 decade is bucking the trend though. So what if the old trend resumed after 2020? This would hinge on the idea that sanity prevails and the US decides to stop lending, Greece finally defaults (as it should but probably won't do), the world licks its wounds and promises to return to fiscal prudence. Alternatively the US could innovate its way out of its predicament as it has done in the past with things like the 'green revolution' and the 'internet revolution'. Although the Pessimist scenario is also an unlikely scenario it could also conceivably happen.

The Pessimist scenario

Note: Peak numbers in 2050 end at 10.3 million publishers. Actually not that pessimistic if you come to think about it. Only a million less than the 'reasonable' estimate. The fact is you can't undo 100 years of growth that easily. Witnesses also multiply and have children who are brought up as witnesses and they most probably remain tied to the religion (for some time into adulthood anyway). This is the trend in all other religions on the planet. But what if there was a massive scandal? The final scenario 'The Watchtower Armageddon' scenario covers that.

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

The 'Lost World' scenario is where the Watchtower has a double the average PpPpD Ratio for the 2010-2020 decade and is then followed by the same growth rate as the 'New World' scenario. This however cannot be done anymore because the decade is half completed and therefore a reasonable projection can be calculated.

Considering the state of the World economy from 2008 onward its actually quite a surprise that the Watchtower couldn't bolster numbers further than they have. They have bucked the trend by about double, but its still not enough.

So in this lost paradise scenario, which is highly improbable, what would the numbers have looked like?

The 'Lost World' scenario

Note: Peak numbers in 2050 hit 23.4 million, but this opportunity seems to have passed the Watchtower corporation by. On the other hand stranger things have happened and you never know, ...buuuuut I don't think it will.

Next the pessimist and Watchtower Armageddon scenarios.

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

Hi John,

"The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah,shall speed it up in its own time."

Perhaps if they have a speed up of the acceleration :)

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

So what happens if the Watchtower has sterling growth over the next four decades?
Some reasons why this could happen:

1. The USA recedes into a long recession lasting on and off for many decades. This is because if the US keeps on borrowing money it will double its debt in the next decade from $17 Trillion to about $30 Trillion. I use the name 'Long Recession' in remembrance of the long depression in the US in the late 1800's. Also if the USA sneezes the World catches the cold.

The Watchtower grows best in times of distress so a prolonged recession would certainly bolster their numbers.

2. China's publisher numbers are currently an unknown quantity. If the Chinese became more legislatively open in the coming decades the Watchtower could conceivable become a legal entity which could bolster the organizations growth significantly, hence the New World Scenario title.

Under this scenario I would project that the average PpPpD Ratio could double. This ratio is slightly better than the 1980 to 1990 ratio (which was the best) and is projected for four decades. The current PpPpD ratio is lower for 2010 to 2020 as the 2015 numbers are giving a good projection what the 2020 numbers will be and therefore is therefore fixed. Anyway so what happens then?

2. The 'New World' scenario

Notes: Peak publisher numbers in 2050 end up at 13.5 million. This is still quite bland. The spin of the Watchtower would want us to believe that growth is explosive. Even under double average growth acceleration the numbers are still sort of a fizzle. By 2050 human population numbers are seemingly going to decline, so that's the end of explosive growth anyway. What the Watchtower needs is another decade to give them the boost they needed. This is where the 2010-2020 decade comes in and also the next scenario.

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

What are those reasons?

I'm doing the write-up now :)

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

Hi Flash,

The pessimist projection will be the one you're looking for then. The PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate so this could also be a conceivable scenario as well.

I first want to give the new world and lost world projections though because there's aserious opportunity that has seemingly been lost which will affect their future growth numbers negatively.

27

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt in

i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

Saintbertholdt

Hi there all,

I've been doing some Watchtower membership growth projections. The best, worst and most lightly future scenarios. I've used the worlds population as a barometer of future Watchtower growth. The reason is because it has always intrigued me that the during the 90's and 2000's the growth of the organization always seemed to mirror world population growth. I say 'it seemed' because preaching activity does have a positive impact on growth numbers, however that impact has been waning over the decades. This has been observed by many people and I thought that the time had come to quantify this and project these changes into the future to get an idea of whats going to happen to the Watchtower organization.

Now there are many projections one can make of possible scenarios and I've done five. First let me explain how I did these projections. (After all, my prognostications should have some weak basis :))

Some technical terms: People per Publisher (The amount of Humans beings per active Watchtower publisher)

PpP examples:

In 1950 there were 7779 people on earth for every publisher
In 1960 there were 3570 people on earth for every publisher and
In 1970 there were 2677 people on earth for every publisher

So as one can see over the decades there has been a proportional increase publisher numbers outstripping human population growth. This looks mighty impressive, that is until you look at the rate of change of PpP over the decades.

For example:

PpP per Decade (PpPpD)

1960 PpP - 1950 PpP = -4209
1970 PpP - 1960 PpP = -893

Over the decades the rate at which publisher growth numbers have been proportionally outstripping the world population growth numbers have been declining. Between 2000 and 2010 the number is down to -104. What this means it that it seems as if the Watchtower will eventually grow at the rate of human population growth. In this specific instance I hypothesize that the correlation is valid.

To get even more technical one can look at the change of this change (PpPpD) as well. This is the deceleration of the proportional rate and can be expressed as a ratio: The PpPpD Ratio. I use this ratio for my projections.

I also use world population projections as the second variable in the calculations. The US census Bureau does the same sort of thing I am doing and they can reasonably predict the future of the worlds population. The interesting thing is that World Population control seems to be working quite well and it would seem that after 2050 the World's population is actually going to decline from a peak of about 9.5 Billion individuals.

Now I'm writing all this technical Gobbledygook to give my projections some credence :) After all its just best guess, but its still a lot of fun :)

The first chart is the how things are chart. The Reality or Facts chart. It has one projection from 2010 until 2020. This is in line with the 2015 numbers and so this projection seems most probable.

Footnote: In the charts below the 'Average number of publishers' statistic is used because Peak publisher numbers are just used by the Watchtower for the 'feel good' effect. The average number of publishers over the period of a year is more accurate and representative.

THE FACTS CHART

Note: In 2020 the monthly average publishers will be at about 8.48 million

Next comes the best guess chart. The Most Probable growth chart. I use the average PpPpD Ratio calculated over the past 6 decades for the projections.

1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario

Notes: By 2050 the average number of publishers is 11.06 million.

Actually its not that great if you think about it. It means that the Watchtower will still remain somewhat of a fringe organization overall.

I have four other projections:

2. The New World Projection (What if the Watchtower had fantastic growth for the next four decades. There are some reasons why this could conceivably happen. The finding is rather surprising.)
3. The Lost World Projection (The most startling finding is that the Watchtower has actually dropped the ball during this past decade.)
4. The pessimist Projection (What if the PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate. What happens then?)
5. The Watchtower Armageddon Projection (What if the Watchtower gets hammered from all sides?)

So wanna see the other projections?

Also any comments or suggestions?

24

BURNING AMBITION by Jehovah's Witness YOUTH: "I want to clean toilets in Bethel for the rest of my life."

by TerryWalstrom in

as i have written previously, i crashed a discussion between a young j-dub and his baptist workmate who were having.

a religious debate outside starbucks.

this was months ago.

Saintbertholdt

Hi TerryWalstrom,

My young witness friend is, of course, torn by his delicate status of being under age in an all Jehovah's Witness family. He wants to go to college, but he's being hard-pressed to Pioneer. He's 'going-along-to-get-along' for now, however much it is disturbing him internally.

Well if he's not too particular, he could study law. The Watchtower has never turned down a lawyer yet, and he could use that as the reason for his studies. He would not be lying either because he'd would be extremely valuable to the organization, even the HQ or a Bethel. And he would have a professional qualification to boot.