bohm

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Posts by bohm

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  10

  Warwick Photo Gallery 5 (September 2015 - Feb. 2016)

  by wifibandit in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  full set: http://imgur.com/a/1ru5z .

  sample:.

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  bohm

  I actually thought it would be bigger. Any idea about how many it will house?
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  12

  Brighton Convention Being Discussed

  by konceptual99 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  whilst browsing my local football team's fan forum, i spied this thread.... http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?340338-10-000-expected-at-the-amex.

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  bohm

  Yah, nice comment. The shitty youtube videos are a gift that keeps on giving.
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  20

  Jwtv: act of love = giving money

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i kid you not, giving money is an act of love according to jwtv (juli edition).

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  bohm

  I swear this is the last one. After this i will never proofread another sentence.

  
  
• 
  20

  Jwtv: act of love = giving money

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i kid you not, giving money is an act of love according to jwtv (juli edition).

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  bohm

  This one has less embarrassing spelling:

  
  

  Has they ever done this before? Said that contributing is an act of love?

  and yah, it's a nice touch that it is one or more folded notes that is being contributed. None of those coins cheapskates.
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  20

  Jwtv: act of love = giving money

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i kid you not, giving money is an act of love according to jwtv (juli edition).

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  2. 
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  bohm

  I turned the latest money begging into a picture:

  
  

  It's at 13:25: https://www.jw.org/download/?fileformat=MP4&output=html&pub=jwb&issue=201607

  The whole broadcast is pretty cringeworthy.
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  20

  Jwtv: act of love = giving money

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i kid you not, giving money is an act of love according to jwtv (juli edition).

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  bohm

  I kid you not, giving money IS an act of love according to jwtv (juli edition)
• 
  13

  How baptism rate at conventions relates to yearbook growth rate (Discussion)

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  we had a number of posters report on the baptism rate at conventions which is usually less than 1% and rates lower than 0.5% is by no means uncommon.

  despite this there is still a positive growth rate in the us (0.71% according to the yearbook) and i wonder how these numbers relate.

  i wonder if anyone can help me out if these assumptions are true:.

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  bohm

  nonjwspouse: I agree that (DF'ings, etc.) is a confounded, however I am not sure it would overturn the effect.. Let's say that in 1990 100'000 new converts (i.e. door-to-door converts and not children of witness) enter the witness at an average age of 30 and lets suppose that by year 2000 about 30'000 has left. This still leaves a net influx of 70'000 30-year-old in 1990 which will drag down the average age of the witness in the years to come and lead to a lower /effective/ mortality rate as long as this influx happens.

  Once the source of converts is removed (i.e. replacement happens by birth) the witness population will begin to closer resemble the average population and the mortality rate will go up -- leading to less growth or even stagnation despite the same conversion/birth/retention rate.

  If we assume a percentage of teenagers leave (never to be seen again) I think that effect is better understood as a lower "effective birth-rate". Of course I don't dispute there is some demographic skewing because people (presumably) preferentially leave at a given age and not when they are very old, however I think the above effect is there as long as we assume the source of new (fresh, door-to-door) converts is declining.
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  13

  How baptism rate at conventions relates to yearbook growth rate (Discussion)

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  we had a number of posters report on the baptism rate at conventions which is usually less than 1% and rates lower than 0.5% is by no means uncommon.

  despite this there is still a positive growth rate in the us (0.71% according to the yearbook) and i wonder how these numbers relate.

  i wonder if anyone can help me out if these assumptions are true:.

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  2. 
  3. 
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  bohm

  dropoffyourkeylee:

  One hypothesis could be the following: Historically, up to around the 90s, the JWs has expanded primarily by conversion. The "average convert" is probably a younger person say around 30 year old. He or she then has children which are brought into the group as very young. Taken together that means the JWs should have a higher birth rate (or "effective" birth rate due to conversion of small children) than the rest of the population and be younger than the rest of the population. Accordingly the death rate of the JWs is lower than the rest of the population.

  However when conversion rates drop (i.e. most converts are descendants of JWs) the JW population will become more representative of the actual population (i.e. older). That means the death rate will increase and the fertility rate will drop. If this is true that means that even if the current conversion rate/ability to baptize and keep children in is maintained the resulting total growth may be lower than now.

  I think this hypothesis is (plausibly) true in terms of the overall direction of the effect but I got no idea if it is significant or not, that would need to be checked by looking at the numbers.
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  13

  How baptism rate at conventions relates to yearbook growth rate (Discussion)

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  we had a number of posters report on the baptism rate at conventions which is usually less than 1% and rates lower than 0.5% is by no means uncommon.

  despite this there is still a positive growth rate in the us (0.71% according to the yearbook) and i wonder how these numbers relate.

  i wonder if anyone can help me out if these assumptions are true:.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  konceptual: if most people are baptized at CAs, why on earth are people then so exited about the baptisms at the RCs every year? Hrmpf, apostates!. At least the baptism numbers makes a lot more sense to me now..
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  13

  How baptism rate at conventions relates to yearbook growth rate (Discussion)

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  we had a number of posters report on the baptism rate at conventions which is usually less than 1% and rates lower than 0.5% is by no means uncommon.

  despite this there is still a positive growth rate in the us (0.71% according to the yearbook) and i wonder how these numbers relate.

  i wonder if anyone can help me out if these assumptions are true:.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  konceptual: It might be a waste of time, but for my own sake I think it would be interesting to get a feeling for how the baptism numbers and conventions relates to the increase in publishers. In your experience is most of the baptisms at RCs or CAs?

  Also let me just get this straight: The rate of increase reported in the YB is the increase in peak publishers? (I thought it was in average publishers).

  I just noticed the total # of baptisms is given in the YB so i see your point this is probably moot.