bohm

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Posts by bohm

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  236

  What did President Trump say about Sweden?

  by kpop in

  1. social
  2. current

  this you will never see on the mainstream media.

  before you comment watch the whole video.

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqaigeqxqgi.

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  bohm

  Simon: If you look at e.g. Denmark or Norway the path to citizenship is very long and hard and the idea is to send the refugees back again when things stabilize (refugee politics in Scandinavia has changed a lot the past years, except Sweden).

  We need to clarify the argument: There is both the (immediate) concern about letting refugees in as it relates to safety (terrorism, crime and unrest) and there is the long-term concern (25 years).

  Our discussion last week was mostly centered on the immediate concern (safety), which is where e.g. the experience of Denmark & Norway is immediately relevant IMO. What do you think?

  Then there is the long-term question. This is a much more complicated question, but again I think it is useful to use European experience, but noting that refugee policy has changed to become much stricter over the past 10 years (and rightly so). I agree that Mohlenbeck or the suburbs of Paris should not be imitated, but the immigration that is currently happening in the US is minuscule relative to what lead to those and there are (likely) difference in the refugee populations.

  I think a better example is the experience of Scandinavia with Turks in the 70s. There was a fairly large immigration, however Turks are not insofar as I am aware very disproportionally represented in the criminal statistics today.
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  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

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  bohm

  LUHE: Kasparov is fairly well read and the book is accessible; he warned about what Putin would become early on and what he initially said came true. I thought he was overreacting but then Crimea happened. In terms of political bias he is a Reaganite.

  Concretely, what do you propose doing with Putin?

  Make him promise not to do the things he says he haven't done against lifting sanctions against him?

  Play it out. What do you think Putin would learn from that experience?

  Spoletta: Damn right. If Hillary tried to pull this crap, I would be the first to call her out and the media/GOP would be all over her as they
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  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

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  bohm

  Simon: I think we use language differently and our background gives us different expectation about what terms like "the left" and "the right" means. I think it is more accurate insofar this site is concerned that I say I am part of "the center" (aka the cowards) rather than redefine "the left".
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  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
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• 

  bohm

  LUHE: Read about Russian politics. Kasparovs book is a good place to start.

  Optics about Putin are very important internally in Russia. He has to be seen as a strong man and this image is very well controlled in a number of ways in the propaganda.

  It sounds retarded, but it makes sense of many things Putin is doing. For instance, that is why he always leaves leaders waiting for him if at all possible. That is why he has the particular body language he has.

  Putin has an ongoing campaign of aggression against the west and he has so far come out on top again and again (paradoxically, that he wagers this campaign is a sign of weakness: he needs victories abroad).

  What can be done to stop Putin is to ensure that the consequences of this campaign outweigh the benefits. In other words, he must be made to look weak or risk being made to look weak. That is being accomplished with the sanctions (which he can't do anything about) and by credible threats of losing or being forced into concessions.

  If Putin is given Crimea now against lifting sanctions, why not continue with Donbass? Why do anything different in Europe? Because he promised not to? There would be no incentive for him to do so.

  This approach, make Putin promise (sort of) something and believe he will keep it, is the approach Bush and in particular Obama took with Putin. In reality, Putin computes the cost/benefits and do what seems best.
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  Simon: Just to make the distinction, I did not say returning ISIS terrorists were not dangerous, I meant that ISIS is not insofar as I know actively sending terrorists to the west yet.
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  LUHE:

  It is a rather simple point. In popular speech, "the left" and "the right" are two mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets. Within both sets, you find subsets of people. For instance, you find the Nazis within the right and the nut-left SJWs within the left.

  I belong to one of those sets, namely "the left". When you are therefore saying "the left <something bad>", that sentences assume whatever follows apply to me.

  That is not nice if it does not, in fact, apply to me as a member of the "center-left", but only a subset of the people on the left. Do you see my point?
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  bohm

  Since someone said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, perhaps a change in the way the US deals with Russia is in order? Just a thought.

  What do you propose? Lifting sanctions against Russia and hope they will stop the current operations to take Donbass?

  I am curious: This opinion you express here is that purely your own or is it based on official studies on Russia/US policy?
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  Simon: Well, I disagree with you on Afghanistan because at the time this was where Bin Laden was located and Al Queda had it's headquartered. They even got a choice: Hand over Bin Laden or face the consequences. They choose the consequences.

  I must admit I didn't study the Libya conflict closely, so I am not very familiar with the story. From what I know, the story is about how weapons for Libyan rebels made it to Syria?

  Can we agree that getting rid of Ghadaffi was a good thing?

  Re. ISIS, no, I support vetting of refugees and very harsh punishment for western sympathizers who travel to Syria. I think per default a person who travel to Syria understands he will participate in warcrimes and crimes against humanity and his prison sentence should reflect that.

  As I understand the situation, there is little evidence ISIS is sending terrorists to the west to perform acts of terror, because ISIS is still focused on the Kaliphat (I might be wrong). If you got evidence to the contrary I would be interested in seeing it. (I did my reading on ISIS 6 months - 1 year ago and things might have changed).
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  Simon:

  Re. the travel thing with Trump.

  A problem with the media is IMO that they run in news cycles where a few stories are "selected" and then dominate. Usually, these are "easy" stories that are quick to explain and relate to & does not require sending journalists to expensive places: "Trump promised not to go on vacation, is now on his third vacation" is one such story; you got pictures of Trump playing golf, Obama playing golf and every random pundit is an expert.

  These "holiday" stories WAS a feature of the Obama presidency in his first term, I can remember that and you can find them if you google... Trump has a ton of angry tweets about it where he promises not to play golf if he is president. Bush, for his part, also got flack because he happened to be more often on "holiday" than Clinton or something

  I don't know if there is a media study somewhere comparing how many such stories there was to Bush, Obama and Trump (it is likely too early), but IMO it is just what we can expect. Trump made it a bit harder for himself because his "holiday" stories also contain the angle he promised not to play golf (and here he is...), where he playes golf (at his own private club, thereby earning himself money), that he (so far) has a relatively high-security budget bc of Melania and the many travels and his son rammed up a 90'000 hotel bill on a promotional tour for a Trump hotel. <--- each of these add extra spice and give a pundit something extra to talk about.

  I don't know if we can agree on these conclusions:

  Every president has some "he travels too much" stories

  + Trumps stories have extra glitter (Extra cost, Eric Trumps promotional tour, on private resort earning Trump org. money, promised not to play golf)

  = Trump will get more stories than usual.

  IMO this is actually good news for Trump since these travel stories are going to be forgotten in 3 months.
• 
  491

  What is your opinion of the news media?

  by minimus in

  1. social
  2. current

  to me they have an agenda and they really don't care about professional journalism.

  most are untrustworthy and that's a shame.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  bohm

  Simon: That is a critique of Obama that I can agree with.

  It is kind of difficult. After 9/11 Afghanistan had to go, but then Iraq also got invaded. I happen to think that a very good case could be made for invading Iraq in 2003 (not involving WMDs), but the instability showed just how unpredictable the removal of a cruel regime could be.

  Then came the Arab Spring, Libya collapses, Syria is not looking good and using WMDs in the battlefield and what do you do?

  Looking at what happened, harsher action against ISIS early on would IMO have been a good idea (though ISIS was still fairly fringe at the beginning of the conflict), but from what I can read Pentagon did not have a clear idea about what would happen if you supported some given faction in the conflict (rebels or Assad).